走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第13章
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it shifts its attention from market share to technological innovation to whatever else preoccupies it at the moment。 Fundamental analysts study values； but the relationship between values and prices is not direct。 It’s that mile…long rubber band all over again。
基本面分析很难，因为随着时间的进行，很多不同的因素都在变化。比如，在经济发展期，基本面分析师会关注增长率，但是在萧条期，又关注分红。在不断上涨的牛市，分红就像是古怪的遗留物，但是，到了熊市，它又成了测试股票的方法。基本面分析师必须关注大众，因为大众的注意力会转变，从市场份额转变到技术革新，再转变到其它方面。基本面分析师研究估值，但是价值和价格之间的关系并不明确。价值和价格之间有1英里长的橡皮筋，2者总是在变化。
The job of a fundamental analyst in the futures markets isn’t much easier。 How do you read the actions of the Federal Reserve； with its great power over interest rates and the economy？ How do you analyze weather reports during the critical growing seasons in the grain markets？ How do you estimate carryover stocks and weather prospects in the Southern versus the Northern Hemispheres which are six months apart in their weather cycles？ You can spend a lifetime learning the fundamentals； or you can look for capable people who sell their research。
期货市场的分析师也不轻松。你如何分析美联储的行为，他们的伟大力量如何影响利率和经济？你如何分析谷物在生长期的天气预报会对市场造成的影响？你如何分析如何估计南半球和北半球的天气，这2个地方的差别有半年，天气在循环，那么天气对库存结转有什么影响？你可能会花一辈子的时间研究基本面，或者去找有本事的人卖给你研究报告。
Fundamental analysis is much more narrow than technical。 A moving average works similarly in soybeans and IBM； on weekly； daily； and intraday charts。 MACD…Histogram flashes similar messages in Treasury bonds and Intel。 Should we forget about the fundamentals and concentrate on technicals？ Many traders take the path of least resistance； but I think this is a mistake。
基本面分析比技术面分析窄。一条移动平均线可以用在大豆上，也可以用在IBM股票上，可以用在周线图上，日线图上，和分钟图上。MACD无论是用在债券上，还是用在英特尔股票上，它所表达的信息是相似的。是不是我们应该放弃基本面，而专注于技术面呢？很多交易者喜欢走简单的路，但我认为这是错误的。
Fundamental factors are very important to a long…term trader who wants to ride major trends for several months or years。 If the fundamentals are bullish； we should favor the long side of the market； and if bearish； the short side。 Fundamental analysis is less relevant to a short…term trader or a day…trader。
对于持有长达几个月或几年的长线交易者来说，基本面的因素非常重要。如果基本面看涨，我们应该做多，如果看跌，我们应该做空。基本面分析师和短线交易者或者日内交易者没什么关系。
You do not have to bee an expert in the fundamental analysis of every stock and modity。 There are very intelligent people who specialize in that； and they publish their research。 Many of them also bang their heads against the walls； unable to understand why； if they know so much about their markets； they cannot make money trading。
你不必成为基本面分析师，不必懂所有的股票和商品。有一些很勤奋的人在做这些事，他们会出版研究报告的。有很多基本面分析师还是要用头撞墙的，因为他们实在搞不懂，自己对市场非常了解，但是却赚不到钱。
If we can take our ideas from fundamental analysts but filter them through technical screens； we’ll be miles of head of those who analyze only fundamentals or technicals。 Bullish fundamentals must be confirmed by rising technical indicators； otherwise they are suspect。 Bearish fundamentals must be confirmed by falling technical indicators。 When fundamentals and technicals are in gear； a savvy trader can have a field day。
如果我们借鉴了基本面分析师的分析，但是利用技术过滤，我们就会超过单纯的基本派和技术派。看涨的基本面需要技术指标的确认，否则就值得怀疑。看跌的基本面需要技术指标确认。当基本面和技术面结合时，聪明的交易者就可以大展身手了。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ The main book on the fundamental analysis of stocks is Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd。 Both authors are long dead； but the book is being kept up…to…date by their disciples。 If you decide to study it； make sure to get the latest edition。 Warren Buffett； a student of Graham； became one of the richest men in the world。 There is an easy…to…read book that explains his approach to fundamental analysis … The Buffett Way by Robert G。 Hagstrom。
能告诉我如何开始吗？基本面分析方面主要的书是格雷厄姆和多德写的《证券分析》。2 个作者早就去世了，但是他们的追随者在更新书的内容。如果你决定研究它，要买最新的版本。沃伦·巴菲特是格雷厄姆的学生，成为了这个世界上最富有的人。有本很简单的书解释了他的基本面分析——罗伯特·G·汉格斯特龙写的《巴菲特之路》。
The best review of futures fundamentals is in The Futures Game by Teweles and Jones。 This classic volume is being revised and updated every 10 years or so （be sure to get the latest edition）。 It has a section on the fundamentals of every futures market。 Whether you trade soy…beans or Swiss francs； you can quickly read up on the key factors driving that market。
期货方面的最好的基本面分析书是理查德·j·特维莱斯和弗兰克·j·琼斯写的《期货赛局》（张轶注：台湾译名）。这部经典每10年左右被修订更新一次（记得买最新版的）。它有个章节分析了每个期货市场。不管是大豆还是瑞士法郎，你都可以找到影响市场的最关键因素。
Technical Analysis
技术分析
Financial markets run on a two…party system … bulls and bears。 Bulls push prices up； bears push them down； while charts show us their footprints。 Technical analysts study charts to find where one group overpowers the other。 They look for repetitive price patterns； trying to recognize uptrends or downtrends in their early stages and generate buy or sell signals。
金融市场有2种走法——牛市和熊市。牛把价格顶上去，熊则把价格压下来，同时图能显示它们的踪迹。技术分析者利用图发现谁比谁强。他们寻找重复的价格模式，尽力认出是上涨的或者是下跌的趋势，这样在早期就能产生买或卖的信号。
The role of technical analysis on Wall Street has changed over the years。 It was very popular in the early part of the twentieth century； ushered in by Charles Dow； the founder of The Wall Street Journal and the originator of the Dow averages。 Several prominent analysts； such as Roger Babson； predicted and identified the 1929 top。 Then came a quarter century of exile； when institutional analysts had to hide their charts if they wanted to keep their jobs。 Technical analysis has bee hugely popular since the 1980s。 Easy access to personal puters has put technical software within easy reach of traders。
过去，技术分析的作用在华尔街发生了变化。在20世纪初期它很流行，是查尔斯·道引进的，他是《华尔街日报》的创立人，也是道琼斯平均指数的发明人。一些著名的分析师，比如罗杰·巴布森，预测了1929年的顶部。后来的25年，机构分析师为了保住自己的工作，只好把图藏起来。从1980年开始，技术分析又开始流行了。和电脑的轻松结合导致了技术分析软件很容易到手。
The stock market has bee increasingly short…term oriented in recent years。 Gone are the days of “buy…and…hold” when people bought “good stocks” for the long run； put them away； and collected dividends。 The pace of economic change is increasing； and stocks are moving faster and faster。 New industries emerge； old ones sink； and many stocks have bee more volatile than modities。 Technical analysis is well suited for those fast…paced changes。
最近几年，股票市场的人都喜欢做短线。过去人们喜欢买入并持有，当买入好股票后，都会长线持有，放下它不管，坐收红利。经济的变化速度很快，股票的运动也越来越快。新的行业兴起，老的行业衰落，很多股票的波动比期货还厉害。技术分析很适合这些快速的变化。
There are two main types of technical analysis： classical and puterized。 Classical analysis is based solely on the study of charts； without using anything more plex than a pencil and ruler。 Classical technicians look for uptrends and downtrends； support and resistance zones； as well as repetitive patterns； such as triangles and rectangles。 It is an easy field to enter； but its main drawback is subjectivity。 When a classical technician feels bullish； his ruler tends to inch up； and when he feels bearish； that ruler tends to slide down。
有2种主要的技术分析：经典的和计算机分析的。经典的分析是建立在图表分析的基础上，除了笔和尺，不用其它东西。经典的技术分析人士寻找上涨趋势和下跌趋势，支撑和阻力区，反复出现的模式，比如三角形和矩形。这个很容易上手，但他的缺点就是主观。当经典的技术分析人士感觉要涨了，他的尺子就情不自禁上涨；当他感觉要跌了，他的尺子情不自禁下跌。
Modern technical analysis relies on puterized indicators whose signals are much more objective。 The two main types are trend…following indicators and oscillators。 Trend…following indicators； such as moving averages； Directional System； and MACD （moving average convergence…divergence）； help identify trends。 Oscillators； such as Stochastic； Force Index； and Relative Strength Index （RSI） help identify reversals。 It is important to select several indicators from both groups； set their parameters； and stay with them。 Amateurs often misuse technical analysis by looking for indicators that show them what they want to see。
现代的技术分析依赖计算机的指标，它的信号非常客观。2个主要的类型是趋势跟踪指标和振荡指标。趋势跟踪指标，包括移动平均线，方向系统和MACD（指数平滑移动平均线），它们帮助确认趋势。振荡指标，包括随机指标，力量指数和相对强弱指标，它们帮助确认反转。从每组里面选择几个指标是非常重要的，设置好参数，长期使用。业余选手的缺点就是总是在找想要什么就显示什么的指标。
The main tool of technical analysis is neither the pencil nor the puter； but the organ that every analyst is supposed to have between his ears … the brain。 Still； if two technicians are at the same level of development； the one with a puter has an advantage。
技术分析的主要工具既不是笔，也不是电脑，而是所有分析者两耳之间的器官——头脑。当然，如果两个技术分析人士的水平一样，用电脑的要占优势。
Technical analysis is partly a science and partly an art … partly objective and partly subjective。 It relies on puterized methods； but it tracks crowd psychology； which can never be fully objective。 The best model for technical analysis is a public opinion poll。 Pollsters use scientific methods but need psychological flair to design questions and select polling techniques。 Price patterns on our puter screens reveal crowd behavior。 Technical analysis is applied social psychology； the craft of analyzing mass behavior for profit。
技术分析一部分是科学，一部分是艺术——部分主观，部分客观。它依靠电脑的方法，但它跟踪大众的心理，不会永远完全客观。技术分析的最佳案例是大众投票。设计调查题目的人需要用科学的方法，还要用心理学的知识设计题目，并选择投票方式。我们电脑屏幕上的价格模式反映了大众的行为。技术分析要利用社会心理，利用分析大众的行为赚钱。
Many beginners； overwhelmed by the sheer volume of data； fall into the trap of automatic trading systems。 Their vendors claim to have backtested the best technical tools and put them together into winning systems。 Whenever an excited beginner tells me he is planning to buy an automatic system； I ask him what he does for a living and what would happen if I came to pete with him after buying an automatic decision…making system in his field。 People want to believe in magic； and if that magic can also save them from working and thinking； they gladly pay good money for it。
很多新手，被数据的单纯性忽悠了，掉入自动交易系统的陷阱。卖软件的人号称已经经过了最好工具的测试，并把它融入了能赚钱的系统。不管什么时候，如果一个激动的新手告诉我，他要去买自动交易系统，我就问他以什么为生，如果我和他竞争，也�
