走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第14章
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Successful trading is based on the 3 M’s … Mind； Method； Money。 Technical analysis； no matter how clever； is responsible for only one…third of your success。 You also need to have sound trading psychology and proper money management； as you’ll see later in this book。
成功的交易是建立在3个M的基础上的——思想，方法和资金管理。技术分析，不管多么聪明，只是对你的成功起3分之1的作用。你需要优秀的交易心理和优秀的资金管理，本书后面会讨论的。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee； written in the first half of the twentieth century； is considered the definitive book on classical charting。 Get any edition after 1955； because that was the last major revision of the book。 Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy offers the most thorough review of modern as well as classical technical analysis。 My first book； Trading for a Living； has large sections on both classical and modern technical analysis。
能告诉我如何开始吗？罗勃·D·艾德华与约翰·麦吉在1948年写的《股市趋势技术分析》被认为是图表分析的经典。1955年以后的版本都行，因为那是最后一次重大修订。约翰·墨菲的《金融市场技术分析》是最经典的技术分析书，有很多现代的分析方法。我的第一本书《以交易为生》用大量的篇幅谈了经典的和现代的技术分析。
When to Buy and Sell
何时买，何时卖
The secret of trading is that there is no secret。 There is no magic password to profits。 Beginners keep looking for a gimmick； and plenty of crafty vendors sell them。 In truth； trading is about work … and a bit of flair。 It is no different from any other field of human endeavor。 Whether you do surgery； teach calculus； or fly an airplane； it all boils down to knowing the rules； having the discipline； putting in the work； and having a bit of flair。
交易的秘密就是没有秘密。也没有赚钱的咒语。新手总是在寻找秘诀，正好有很多狡猾的生意人在卖秘诀。事实上，交易就是工作——还要有点天赋。它和人类的其它事业没有差别。无论你是做外科医生，教微积分，或者是开飞机，都需要你懂原则，有纪律，专心工作，还要有点天赋。
An intelligent trader pays attention to fundamentals。 He is aware of the key forces in the economy。 He spends most of his analytic time on technical analysis； working to identify trends and reversals。 Later in this book we will review key technical tools and put together a trading plan。
聪明的交易者关注基本面。他知道经济中关键的因素。他用大多数时间进行技术分析，以确认趋势和反转。我在本书后面会讨论技术分析工具以及交易计划。
Markets keep changing； and flexibility is the name of the game。 A brilliant programmer told me recently that he kept losing money but whoever was buying off of his stops must have been profitable because his stops kept nailing the bottoms of declines。 I asked why he didn’t start placing his buy orders where he now placed stops。 He wouldn’t do it because he was too rigid； and for him buy orders were buy orders and stops were stops。 A high level of education can be a handicap in trading。 Brian Monieson； a noted Chicago trader； once said in an interview； “I have a Ph。D。 in mathematics and a background in cybernetics； but I was able to overe those disadvantages and make money。”
市场充满了变化，灵活多变是这个游戏的名字。前不久有个出色的程序员告诉我，他总是在亏钱，他说不管是谁接了他的止损单，这个接单的人一定赚了很多，因为他的止损单总是在下跌趋势的底部。我问他，为什么不在你下止损单的位置下单买入呢。他不愿意，因为他很刻板，对他来说，买单就是买单，止损单就是止损单。在交易中，高学历可以成为障碍。布莱恩·莫尼尔森是芝加哥著名的交易者，有一次在采访中他说：“我是数学博士，有控制论的背景，但是在交易中，我能克服这些缺点并赚钱。”
Many professional people are preoccupied with being right。 Engineers believe that everything can be calculated； and doctors believe that if they run enough tests； they’ll e up with the right diagnosis and treatment。 Curing a patient involves a lot more than precision。 It is a running joke how many doctors and lawyers lose money in the markets。 Why？ Certainly not for lack of intelligence； but for lack of humility and flexibility。
专业人士总是要保证正确。工程师认为任何事情都可以计算，医生认为只要有足够的实验，他们就有正确的诊断和治疗方法。治疗一个病人需要的东西很多，不仅仅是精准。有个笑话说很多医生和律师在市场中亏钱了。为什么？当然不是因为不够聪明，而是不懂谦虚，不知道灵活应变。
Markets operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty。 Trading signals are clear in the middle of the chart； but as you get closer to the right edge； you find yourself in what John Keegan； the great military historian； called “the fog of war。” There is no certainty； only odds。 Here you have two goals … to make money and to learn。 Win or lose； you have to gain knowledge from a trade in order to be a better trader tomorrow。 Scan your fundamental information； read technical signals； implement your rules of money management and risk control。 Now you are ready to pull the trigger。 Go！
市场的气氛就是不确定性。图表中的信号很明显，但是当你走近时，用著名的军事史学家约翰·基冈的话说，你走进了“战争的迷雾。”这里没有肯定的事，只有奇怪的事。你要有2个目标——赚钱和学习。赢或输，你必须从交易中学习以保证你明天有进步。检查你的基本面消息，审视你的技术信号，贯彻你的资金管理原则和风险控制。这样你才能准备好扣扳机。行动！
PART TWO THE THREE M’S OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING
第2部分 成功交易的3个M
Buy low； sell high。 Short high； cover low。 Traders are like surfers； trying to catch good waves； only their beach is rocky； not sandy。 Professionals wait for opportunities but amateurs jump in； driven by emotions … they keep buying strength and selling weakness； bleeding their equity into the markets。 Buy low； sell high sounds like a simple rule； but greed and fear can override the best intentions。
低买高买，在高点做空，在低点回补。交易者就像冲浪者，都想找到最好的波浪，但是他们的沙滩全是石头，不是沙子。专业人士等机会，而业余选手由于情绪冲动，一头跳进——他们总是在最强的时候买，在最弱的时候卖，把资金献给了市场。低买高卖听起来是很简单的原则，但是贪婪和恐惧更能让人迷失。
A professional waits for familiar patterns to emerge from the market。 He may notice a new trend with rising momentum； indicating higher prices ahead。 Or he may detect the feebleness of momentum during a rally； indicating weakness。 Once he recognizes a pattern； he puts on a trade。 He has a clear notion of how he’ll get in； where he’ll take profits； and where he’ll accept a loss if the market turns against him。
专业人士等待市场出现相似的模式。也许他看见了新的趋势，有上涨动能，预示更高的价格。也许他发现了反弹的微弱，显示了弱势。当他看清了一个模式，他会交易。他很清楚如何进场，在哪里兑现利润，如果市场不好，他知道在何处接受亏损。
A trade is a bet on a price change； but there is a paradox。 Each price reflects the latest consensus of value of market participants。 Putting on a trade challenges that consensus。 A buyer disagrees with the collective wisdom by saying the market is underpriced。 A seller disagrees with the wisdom of the entire group； believing the market is overpriced。 Both the buyer and the seller expect the consensus to change； but meanwhile they defy the market。 That market includes some of the most brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth。 Arguing with this group is dangerous business； and it has to be done very cautiously。
交易者赌价格的变动，但自相矛盾。每个价格都显示了市场参与者对价值的一致认同。进行交易意味着挑战这个一致的认同。买家不会同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被低估了。卖家不同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被高估了。买家和卖家都希望这个一致的认同会改变，但同时，他们在对抗市场。市场包括了一些很出色的思想和很大的资金。和他们争论是危险的，所以要认真做事。
An intelligent trader looks for holes in the efficient market theory。 He scans the market for brief periods of inefficiency。 When the crowd is gripped by greed； the newers jump in and load up on stocks。 When falling prices squeeze the fingers of thousands of buyers； they dump their holdings in a panic； disregarding fundamental values。 Those episodes of emotional behavior dilute the cold efficiency of the market； creating opportunities for disciplined traders。 When markets are calm and efficient； trading bees a crapshoot； with missions and slippage worsening the odds。
聪明的交易者寻找有效市场理论的漏洞。他扫描市场，寻找不有效的地方。当大众被贪婪俘虏时，新人会跳进来装满股票。当价格下跌，让上千的买家紧张时，他们在恐慌中抛股票，根本不管基本面。这些情绪紧张的行为稀释了市场有效理论，为有纪律的交易者制造了机会。当市场平静，有效率的时候，交易就变的有风险了，佣金和滑点亏损会让事情变的更糟。
Crowd mentality changes slowly； and price patterns recur； albeit with variations。 Emotional swings provide trading opportunities； while efficient markets chop up and down； offering no edge to traders； only piling up their costs。 Technical analysis tools will work for you only if you have the discipline to wait for patterns to emerge。 Professionals trade only when markets offer them special advantages。
大众的智力变化慢，价格的模式会反复出现，但有所不同。情绪的波动提供了交易机会，然而有效市场则削弱各种机会，导致交易者占不到便宜，只会堆积成本。只要你有纪律，专心等待特定的模式出现，技术分析工具就会对你有用。专业人士在市场提供了特殊的优势时才进行交易。
According to chaos theory； many processes … the flow of water in a river； the movement of clouds in the sky； the changes of prices in the cotton markets … are chaotic； with transient islands of order； called fractals。 Those fractals look similar from any distance； whether through a telescope or a microscope。 The coast of Maine looks just as jagged from a space shuttle as it does when you drop down on your hands and knees and look at it through a magnifying glass。 In most financial markets； the long…term weekly charts and the short…term 5…minute charts look so similar； you cannot tell them apart without markings。 Engineers have realized that they can achieve better control over many processes if they accept them as chaotic and try to capitalize on temporary fractals； the islands of order。 That’s exactly what a good trader does。 He recognizes the market as chaotic and unpredictable much of the time； but expects to find islands of order。 He trains himself to buy and sell without quibbling when he finds those patterns。
根据混沌理论，很多过程——河中的水流，天空中移动的云，棉花市场的价格变动——是混乱无序的，有时候会有短暂的有序，这叫分形。不管从多远来看，这些分形都很相似，无论是用望远镜，还是显微镜。如果你从航天飞机看，缅因州看样来像是突出的，当你爬下来用放大镜看，结果也一样。在大部分金融市场中，长期的周线图和短期的5分钟图看起来相似，如果没有标注，你根本分不出来。工程师觉得如果他们接受混乱无序的现实，并重点研究分形的有序，他们就能更好地控制很多环节。优秀的交易者也要这么做。他知道市场在大多时间是混乱无序的，也无法预测的，但是要等待有序的出现。要训练自己，当发现了特定的模式时，不要支支吾吾，要去行动。
Successful trading depends on the 3 M’s … Mind； Method； and Money。 Beginners focus on analysis； but professionals operate in a three…dimensional space。 They are aware of trading psychology … their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets。 Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks； options； or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger … deciding when to buy and sell。 Money refers to ho
