走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第17章
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
guru has 200 subscribers； they’ll choose different remendations； trade them differently； and most will lose money； each in his own way。 There is a rule in the advisory business： “If you make forecasts for a living； make a lot of them。” Gurus offer convenient excuses to sleepwalking traders who need a scapegoat for their losses。
我从没见过哪个交易者完全听老师的，即使他付了很多钱。如果一个老师有200个学生，他们会选择不同的推荐，用不同的方式交易，而且大多数人会亏钱，每个人亏的方式都不一样。在顾问行业有个原则：“如果你以顾问为生，那么你可以很多种顾问。”对于一相情愿的交易者，如果他们要求赔偿亏损，老师们可以找到很轻松的借口。
Whether or not you listen to a guru； you’re 100％ responsible for the oute of your trades。 The next time you get a hot tip； drop it into your trading system to see whether it gives you a buy or sell signal。 You are responsible for the consequences of taking or rejecting advice。
不管你听不听老师的，你是100％对你的交易结果负责的。当你下次得到一个好消息，用你的交易系统去测试，看看是不是会出现买卖信号。你接受建议也好，拒绝建议也好，你都要对自己负责。
Blame the Unexpected News
怪罪意外的新闻
It is easy to feel angry and hurt when a sudden piece of bad news blows a hole in your stock。 You buy something； it goes up； bad news hits the market； and your stock collapses。 The market did it to you； you say？ The news may have been sudden； but you are responsible for handling any challenges。
当一个坏消息突然在市场炸开锅时，感到生气，感到受伤是自然的。你买了，价格上涨，突然来了一个坏消息袭击市场，你的股票崩溃了。市场在对付你，你说？也许新闻是突然，但你要为任何挑战负责。
Most pany news is released on a regular schedule。 If you trade a certain stock； you should know well in advance when that pany releases its earnings and be prepared for any market reaction to the news。 Lighten up on your position if unsure about the impact of a ing announcement。 If you trade bonds； currencies； or stock index futures； you must know when the key economic statistics are released and how the leading indicators or the unemployment rate can impact your market。 It may be wise to tighten your stops or reduce the size of your trade in advance of an important news release。
大部分公司的新闻是定期发布的。如果你买了股票，你应该提前知道这个公司何时发布赢利消息，并要做好准备，看市场如何反应。如果你不知道消息对市场的影响，那就要特别关注自己的仓位。如果你交易债券，外汇，或股指期货，你必须知道何时公布关键的经济统计数据，重要指标，或者是失业率对市场的冲击。在重要新闻发布前下好止损单或减少仓位是明智的。
What about a truly unexpected piece of news … a president gets shot； a noted analyst es out with a bearish earnings forecast； and so on？ You must research your market and know what happened after similar events in the past； you have to do your homework before the event hits you。 Having this knowledge allows you to act without delay。 For example； the stock market’s reaction to an assault on a president has always been a sharp hiccup to the downside； followed by a plete retracement； so a sensible thing to do is buy the break。
如果确实是真正的意外，怎么办——总统被枪击，一个著名的分析师说市场会下跌，等等？你必须自己做市场研究，以了解过去类似的事情是如何发展的。你必须提前做功课，以防止危险袭击你。有了这方面的知识，你就会反应迅速。比如，总统被袭击后，市场的反应总是下跌，然后又完全返回，所以最好的做法就是在缺口处买入。
Your trading plan must include the possibility of a sharp adverse move caused by sudden events。 You must have your stop in place； and the size of your trade must be such that you cannot get financially hurt in the case of a reversal。 There are many risks waiting to spring on a trader … you alone are responsible for damage control。
你的交易计划还要考虑到突发事件造成的突然反转。你必须提前下好止损单，而且你的仓位大小要合适，不能因为反转而受伤。有很多风险会随时发生在交易者身上——你要自己负责控制。
Wishful Thinking
一厢情愿
When the pain grows bit by bit； the natural tendency is to do nothing and wait for an improvement。 A sleepwalking trader gives his losing trades “more time to work out；” while they slowly destroy his account。
当痛苦一点一点的增加，自然的反应就是什么都不做，等事情好转。一个一相情愿的交易者给他亏损的账户“更多的时间以恢复”，然而却慢慢的摧毁了他的账户。
A sleepwalker hopes and dreams。 He sits on a loss and says； “This stock is ing back； it always did。” Winners accept occasional losses； take them； and move on。 Losers postpone taking losses。 An amateur puts on a trade the way a kid buys a lottery ticket。 He waits for the wheel of fortune to decide whether he wins or loses。 Professionals； to the contrary； have ironclad plans for getting out； either with a profit or a small loss。 One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is their planning for exits。
一相情愿就是梦想。他坐在亏损上面说：“这只股票会回来的，过去总是这样。”赢家接受偶尔的亏损，认亏，然后继续努力。输家推迟认亏的时间。业余选手交易和小孩买彩票一样。他等待命运决定他是赢还是输。专业人士，相反，有钢铁般的出场计划，不管是赚钱的，还是亏钱的。专业人士和业余选手的关键区别就是他们的出场计划。
A sleepwalking trader buys at 35 and puts in a stop at 32。 The stock sinks to 33； and he says； “I’ll give it a little more room。” He moves his stop down to 30。 That is a fatal mistake … he has breached his discipline and violated his own plan。
一相情愿的交易者在35买入，止损设在32。股票跌到33，他说：“我再给它一点空间。”他把止损改到30。这是致命的错误——他已经违反了自己的纪律和计划。
You may move stops only one way … in the direction of your trade。 Stops are like a ratchet on a sailboat； designed to take the slack out of your sails。 If you start giving your trade “more room to breathe；” that extra slack will swing around and hurt you。 When the market rewards traders for breaking their rules； it sets up an even deeper trap in their next trade。
也许你只会把止损点移到一个方向——你的方向。止损就像船上的棘爪，能帮助你找到疏忽的地方。如果你开始给你的交易“更多的呼吸空间” 更多的疏忽会伤害你。如果市场奖赏了一个违背原则的交易者，那么下次就会有更大的陷阱等着他。
The best time to make decisions is before you enter a trade。 Your money is not at risk； and you can weigh profit targets and loss parameters。 Once you’re in a trade； you begin to form an attachment to it。 The market hypnotizes you and lures you into emotional decisions。 This is why you must write down your exit plan and follow it。
最好的做决定的时间是进行交易之前。你的资金没有风险，你可以计算利润或亏损的状况。一旦你进行了交易，你要管住它。市场会刺激你，诱惑你，让你情绪激动。这就是让你把出场计划提前写好的原因，这样才能执行计划。
Turning a losing trade into an “investment” is a mon disease among small private traders； but some institutional traders also suffer from it。 Disasters at banks and major financial firms occur when poorly supervised traders lose money in short…term trades and stick them into long…term accounts； hoping that time will bail them out。 If you are losing in the beginning； you’ll lose in the end。 Do not put off the hour of reckoning。 The first loss is the best loss … this is the rule of those of us who trade with our eyes open。
交易者的通病就是想把亏损的交易变成赚钱的，机构交易者也会这样。很多大银行和大金融机构发生灾难的原因就是他们的交易者没有受到严格监管，亏了钱就想做长线，期望时间会拯救他们。如果你一开始就亏钱，你最终还是要亏钱。不要把时间往后推。最初的亏损是最便宜的亏损——我们睁大双眼交易的人都要遵守这个原则。
A REMEDY FOR SELF…DESTRUCTIVENESS
治疗自毁的方法
People who like to plain about their bad luck are often experts in looking for trouble and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory。 A friend in the construction business used to have a driver who dreamed of buying his own truck and working for himself。 He saved money for years and finally paid cash for a huge brand…new truck。 He quit his job； got gloriously drunk； and at the end of the day rolled his uninsured truck down an embankment … it was totaled； and the driver came back asking for his old job。 Tragedy？ Drama？ Or fear of freedom and an unconscious wish for a safe job with a steady paycheck？
喜欢抱怨自己运气不好的人，喜欢找麻烦，喜欢从胜利中找失败，他们就是这样的专家。我有个建筑行业的朋友，他的司机总是梦想买自己的车，为自己工作。他存了很多年的钱，然后用现金买了一辆新车。他辞职了，拿到了漂亮的车，最后一天，他把还没有保险的车开到坝下面去了——车是他的所有，这个司机又回来要求得到以前的工作。这是灾难？戏剧？还是他害怕自由，潜意识喜欢安全的，稳定的收入？
Why do intelligent people with a track record of success keep losing money on one harebrained trade after another； stumbling from calamity to catastrophe？ Ignorance？ Bad luck？ Or a hidden desire to fail？
过去的成功交易记录显示这个人很聪明，但他为什么会出现一笔又一笔糟糕的交易，从灾难变成大灾难呢？无知？运气差？还是内心就想失败？
Many people have a self…destructive streak。 My experience as a psychiatrist has convinced me that most people who plain about severe problems are in fact sabotaging themselves。 I cannot change a patient’s external reality； but whenever I cure one of self…sabotage； he quickly resolves his external problems。
很多人都有自毁的倾向。我作为心理医生，我的经验告诉我，大部分抱怨问题的人实际上是在折磨自己。我不能改变病人的外部现实，但只要我治好了一个自我折磨的人，他很快就会解决外部的问题。
Self…destructiveness is such a pervasive human trait because civilization is built on controlling aggression。 As we grow up； we are trained to control aggression against others … behave； do not push； be nice。 Our aggression has to go somewhere； and many turn it against themselves； the only unprotected target。 We turn our anger inward and learn to sabotage ourselves。 Little wonder so many of us grow up fearful； inhibited； and shy。
自毁的情绪容易蔓延，因为文明建立在控制攻击性的基础上。我们成长的时候，我们被教育不要攻击别人——要行为规矩，不冲撞，得体。我们的攻击性要有一个宣泄的地方，很多人转为针对自己，唯一不受保护的目标。我们对自己愤怒，并学会了自毁。这就不奇怪为何很多人长大后感到恐惧，没有情感流露，害羞。
Society has several defenses against the extremes of self…sabotage。 The police will talk a potential suicide down from the roof； and the medical board will take the scalpel away from an accident…prone surgeon； but no one will stop a self…defeating trader。 He can run amok in the financial markets； inflicting wounds on himself； while brokers and other traders gladly take his money。 Financial markets lack protective controls against self…sabotage。
对于自毁的极端情况，社会上有几个办法来阻止。警察会居高临下地和有自杀倾向的人谈话，在容易出事故的手术医生手术时，医院的人会把手术刀拿远点，但是没有人来阻止自欺欺人的交易者。他可以杀进金融市场，给自己造成伤害，然而，经纪人和其他交易者则很高兴地笑纳他的钱。金融市场并没有防止自毁的措施。
Are you sabotaging yourself？ The only way to find out is to keep good records； especially a Trader’s Journal and an equity curve； shown later in this book。 The angle of your equity curve is an objective indicator of your behavior。 If it slopes up； with few downticks； you’re doing well。 If it points down； it shows you’re not in gear with the markets and possibly in a self…sabotage mode。 When you observe that； reduce the size of your trades and spend more time with your Trader’s Journal figuring out what you’re doing。
你自毁吗？最好的方法是做交易记录，尤其是一个交易者的日记和资金曲线，本书后面会谈的。资金曲线的角度是你行为的最客观指标。如果它上涨�
