走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第22章
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市场会发出大量的信息。我们的工具能帮我们把这些信息形成可以管理的形式。选择适合你的分析工具和技术是很重要的，把它们和一致的系统结合起来，还要注意资金管理。当我们根据图表制定好交易决定时，我们要思考可能性，不是肯定性。如果你想要肯定性，找到图中的一个点，看看哪个经纪人会接受你的订单。
This chapter on technical analysis shows how one trader goes about analyzing markets。 Use it as a model for choosing your favorite tools； rather than following it slavishly。 Test any method you like on your own data because only personal testing will convert information into knowledge and make these methods your own。
本章谈技术分析，会告诉你一个交易者是如何分析市场的。找到一个模式，作为你最喜欢的工具，而不要奴隶般地追随。你要用你自己的数据来测试这个方法，只有亲自测试才会把信息转变成知识，才会成为自己的方法。
Many concepts in this book are illustrated with charts。 I selected them from a broad range of markets … stocks as well as futures。 Technical analysis is a universal language； even though the accents differ。 You can apply what you’ve learned from the chart of IBM to silver or Japanese yen。 I trade mostly in the United States； but have used the same methods in Germany； Russia； Singapore； and Australia。 Knowing the language of technical analysis enables you to read any market in the world。
本书中的很多观念都配了图。是我从很多市场里面选的——包括股票和期货市场。技术分析是一个全世界通用的语言，尽管大家的方言不同。你可以把从IBM股票图上学到的东西应用到银或日元上面。我的交易大部分在美国，但是同样的方法我在德国，俄罗斯，新加坡和澳大利亚都用过。懂了技术分析的语言，你就能认识全世界的任何市场。
Analysis is hard； but trading is much harder。 Charts reflect what has happened。 Indicators reveal the balance of power between bulls and bears。 Analysis is not an end in itself； unless you get a job as an analyst for a pany。 Our job as traders is to make decisions to buy； sell； or stand aside on the basis of our analysis。
分析很难，但交易更难。图表反映了过去发生的事。指标反映了多头和空头的力量均衡。分析不是终结，除非你找到的工作就是做分析师。我们作为交易者，我们的工作是根据我们的分析来决定买，卖或观望。
After reviewing each chart； you need to go to its hard right edge and decide whether to bet on bulls； bet on bears； or stand aside。 You must follow up chart analysis by establishing profit targets； setting stops； and applying money management rules。
当你看好图表以后，你要做更艰难的决定，赌涨，赌跌，或者是观望。你必须根据你的图表分析做这些决定，你的利润目标，设置止损点，运用资金管理的原则。
BASIC CHARTING
基本画图方法
A trade is a bet on a price change。 You can make money buying low and selling high or shorting high and covering low。 Prices are central to our enterprise； yet few traders stop to think what prices are。 What exactly are we trying to analyze？
交易就是赌价格的变化。你可以低买高卖赚钱，也可以在高点做空，在低点回补赚钱。价格就是我们的中心，少数交易者会停下来想什么是价格。我们究竟要分析什么？
Financial markets consist of huge crowds of people who meet on the floor of an exchange； on the phone； or via the Internet。 We can divide them into three groups： buyers； sellers； and undecided traders。 Buyers want to buy as cheaply as possible。 Sellers want to sell as expensively as possible。 They could take forever to negotiate； but feel pressure from undecided traders。 They have to act quickly； before some undecided trader makes up his mind； jumps into the game； and takes away their bargain。 Undecided traders are the force that speeds up trading。 They are true market participants； as long as they watch the market and have the money to trade it。 Each deal is struck in the midst of the market crowd； putting pressure on both buyers and sellers。 This is why each trade represents the current emotional state of the entire market crowd。
金融市场里面充满了人，他们通过交易所，电话，互联网相遇。我们可以把他们分为3类：买家，卖家和观望者。买家希望买的越低越好。卖家希望卖的越高越好。他们可以一直进行讨价还价，但是观望者会给他们施加压力。他们必须动作快，以防止观望者做好了决定，跳进这个游戏，把他们的好机会抢走了。观望者是加快交易的推动力量。他们是真正的市场参与者，从他们观察市场到他们交易的时间都是。每笔交易都会打击市场大众，对买家和卖家都造成了压力。这就是为什么说每笔交易都代表了现在市场大众的情绪状态。
Price is a consensus of value of all market participants expressed in action at the moment of the trade。
价格就是这笔交易代表的市场参与者对价值的一致认同。
Many traders have no clear idea what they are trying to analyze。 Balance sheets of panies？ Pronouncements of the Federal Reserve？ Weather reports from soybean…growing states？ The cosmic vibrations of Gann theory？ Every chart serves as an ongoing poll of the market。 Each tick represents a momentary consensus of value of all market participants。 High and low prices； the height of every bar； the angle of every trendline； the duration of every pattern reflect aspects of crowd behavior。 Recognizing these patterns can help us decide when to bet on bulls or bears。
很多交易者不知道要分析什么。公司的收支平衡表？美联储的宣布？大豆产区的天气预报？江恩理论所说的宇宙振动？每张图表都代表了市场的大众看法。每次价格的跳动代表了市场大众对价值的一致看法。最高价和最低价，成交量的大小，趋势线的角度，每个模式的时间长度都反映了大众的行为。认识这些模式能帮助我们做决定，赌涨还是赌跌。
During an election campaign pollsters call thousands of people asking how they’ll vote。 Well…designed polls have predictive value； which is why politicians pay for them。 Financial markets run on a two…party system … bulls and bears； with a huge silent majority of undecided traders who may throw their weight to either party。 Technical analysis is a poll of market participants。 If bulls are on top； we should cover shorts and go long。 If bears are stronger； we should go short。 If an election is too close to call； a wise trader stands aside。 Standing aside is a legitimate market position and the only one in which you can’t lose money。
在竞选的时候，民意调查公司会打电话给群众了解他们是如何投票的。一个设计优良的民意调查表会有预测上的价值，所以政治家愿意为此掏钱。金融市场有2种走法——多头和空头，大量的沉默的观望着随时可以决定加入多头或空头。技术分析是市场参与者的投票。如果多头占优势，我们应该回补空头仓位并做多。如果空头占优势，我们应该做空。如果大选来临，聪明的交易者观望。观望是很合理的方法，这是唯一的不亏钱的方法。
Individual behavior is difficult to predict。 Crowds are much more primitive and their behavior more repetitive and predictable。 Our job is not to argue with the crowd； telling it what’s rational or irrational。 We need to identify crowd behavior and decide how likely it is to continue。 If the trend is up and we find that the crowd is growing more optimistic； we should trade that market from the long side。 When we find that the crowd is being less optimistic； it is time to sell。 If the crowd seems confused； we should stand aside and wait for the market to make up its mind。
个人行为很难预测。大众更原始，更容易重复，更容易预测。我们的工作是不要和大众争论，不要告诉他们什么是理性的或非理性的。我们需要确认大众的行为，决定可能会如何继续。如果趋势是上涨的，我们发现大众越来越乐观，我们应该做多。当我们发现大众变得不再乐观，那就是卖的时候了。如果大众很困惑，我们应该观望，等待市场做出决定。
The Meaning of Prices
价格的意义
Highs and lows； opening and closing prices； intraday swings and weekly ranges reflect crowd behavior。 Our charts； indicators； and technical tools are windows into the mass psychology of the markets。 You have to be clear about what you are studying if you want to get closer to the truth。
最高点和最低点，开盘价和收盘价，当天波动和每周波动都反映了大众的行为。我们的图表，指标和技术工具是市场大众心理的窗口。如果你想了解事实，就要很清楚你在研究的东西。
Many market participants have backgrounds in science and engineering and are often tempted to apply the principles of physics。 For example； they may try to filter out the noise of a trading range to obtain a clear signal of a trend。 Those methods can help； but they cannot be converted into automatic trading systems because the markets are not physical processes。 They are reflections of crowd psychology； which follows different； less precise laws。 In physics； if you calculate everything； you’ll predict where a process will take you。 Not so in the markets； where a crowd can always throw you a curve。 Here you have to act within this atmosphere of uncertainty； which is why you must protect yourself with good money management。
很多市场参与者有科学和工程方面的背景，他们经常会情不自禁使用物理原理。比如，他们也许要过滤出交易区间的噪音，想得到明显的趋势信号。他们的方法可以起帮助，但是他们不能直接转换成交易系统，因为市场不是物理过程。市场放映了大众心理，市场反应是不同的，反映的是不准定律。在物理学上，如果你计算了什么，它会告诉你结果是什么。市场不会这样，大众总是欺骗你。在市场里你必须在不确定的气氛里行动，这也是为何要做好资金管理的原因。
The Open The opening price； the first price of the day； is marked on a bar chart by a tick pointing to the left。 An opening price reflects the influx of overnight orders。 Who placed those orders？ A dentist who read a tip in a magazine after dinner； a teacher whose broker touted a trade but who needed his wife’s permission to buy； a financial officer of a slow…moving institution who sat in a meeting all day waiting for his idea to be approved by a mittee。 They are the people who place orders before the open。 Opening prices reflect opinions of less informed market participants。
开盘 开盘价，每天的第1个价格，是竹线图（张轶注：竹线和K线不太一样，本书作者用的都是竹线，请注意）上面指向左边的小横线。开盘价反映了头天晚上订单的汇集情况。谁下的订单？一个牙医在饭后的杂志上读到了一个消息，一个教师的经纪人卖给他一个交易机会，但他需要他妻子的保证金来买，一个金融官员在市场平静的状况下，坐在会议室里等待他的意见被委员会批准。这些人都是在开盘前下单的人。开盘价反映了消息不灵通人士的观点。
When outsiders buy or sell； who takes the opposite side of their trades？ Market professionals step in to help； only they do not run a charity。 If floor traders see more buy orders ing in； they open the market higher； forcing outsiders to overpay。 The pros go short； so that the slightest dip makes them money。 If the crowd is fearful before the opening and sell orders predominate； the floor opens the market very low。 They acquire their goods on the cheap； so that the slightest bounce earns them short…term profits。
当场外的人买卖时，谁在和他们反向交易呢？市场专业人士来帮忙，他们可不是做慈善事业。如果场内交易者看见很多买单进来，他们会把开盘价提高点，逼场外的交易者多付钱。专业人士做空，这样最小的下跌也能赚钱。如果大众很恐惧，在开盘前大多是卖，场内的开盘就很低。他们买卖的产品都是低价，一个轻微的反弹都能让他们短期赚钱。
The opening price establishes the first balance of the day between outsiders and insiders； amateurs and professionals。 If you are a short…term trader； pay attention to the opening range … the high and the low of the first 15 to 30 minutes of trading。 Most opening ranges are followed by breakouts； which are important because they show who is taking control of the market。 Several intraday trading systems are based on following opening range breakouts。
开盘价代表了当天场外交易者，场内交易者，业余选手和专业人士的第一个平衡。如果你是短线交易者，要关注开盘后交易区间——开盘后15——30分钟内交易的最高点和最低点。很多开盘后交易区间之后就是突破，这个很重要，因为它们告诉你谁在控制市场。一些日内交易系统的信号就是根据开
