走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第26章
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The bear market established a bottom just near 65 in December; but in January some desperate sellers dumped enough stock to briefly push CIEN near 60。 At the right edge of the chart prices are rallying above the level of their old bottom。 The bear trap has slammed shut; with a 50% rally in just one month。 Such signals are much easier to recognize using technical indicators; to be discussed later。
在12月,下跌到65附近,形成一个底部,但是在1月,一些绝望的卖家很快把价格推到了60左右。在图的右边,价格又涨到了过去底部以上。空头陷阱起作用了,1个月的时间反弹了50%。如果用技术指标,这样的信号是很容易发现的,我们后面会谈这个。
If you have an open position; defend yourself against false breakouts by reducing your trading size and placing wider stops。 Be ready to reposition if stopped out of your trade。
如果你持有仓位,可以利用减少仓位和加大止损点的办法来保护自己。如果被止损出场,要做好准备再次进场。
There are many advantages to risking just a small fraction of your account on any trade。 It allows you to be more flexible with stops。 When the volatility is high; consider protecting a long position by buying a put or a short position by buying a call。 Finally; if you get stopped out on a false breakout; don’t be shy about getting back into a trade。 Beginners tend to make a single stab at a position and stay out if they are stopped out。 Professionals; on the other hand; will attempt several entries before nailing down the trade they want。
只使用账户的一小部分资金去冒险是有很多好处的。它让你在止损点的设置上很灵活。如果市场波动厉害,可以考虑为多头仓位买看跌期权,或为空头仓位买看跌期权。最后,如果你被假突破止损出场,不要害羞,继续买入原来的仓位。新手的仓位被袭击后,总是观望。相反,专业人士如果确认交易是他们喜欢的,他们会多次尝试进场。
Double Tops and Bottoms Bulls make money when the market rises。 There are always a few who take profits on the way up; but new bulls e in and the rally continues。 Every rally reaches a point where enough bulls look at it and say … this is very nice; and it may get even nicer; but I’d rather have cash。 Rallies top out after enough wealthy bulls take their profits; while the money from new bulls is not enough to replace what was taken out。
双顶和双底 当市场上涨时,多头赚钱。总是有少数人在上涨时兑现利润,但是新的多头进场,造成继续上涨。每次上涨到了一个新高点,就会有很多多头说——看起来不错,也许可以变得更好,但是,我要现金。当很多富有的多头兑现利润时,市场就到头了,新的多头的钱无法支撑这个价格。
When the market heads down from its peak; savvy bulls; the ones who’ve cashed out early; are the most relaxed group。 Other bulls who are still long; especially if they came in late; feel trapped。 Their profits are melting away and turning into losses。 Should they hold or sell?
当市场从最高点下跌时,提前空仓的多头是最轻松的。其他继续持有多头仓位的多头,尤其是最后进场的,感觉是调入陷阱。利润没了,出现亏损。他们是应该持有,还是应该卖?
If enough moneyed bulls decide the decline is being overdone; they’ll step in and buy。 As the rally resumes; more bulls e in。 Now prices approach the level of their old top; and that’s where you can expect sell orders to hit the market。 Many traders who got caught in the previous decline swear to get out if the market gives them a second chance。
如果持币的多头发现市场超跌,他们会进场买入。当市场上涨时,更多的多头进场。此时,市场达到过去的高点,你可以希望卖单出现,以袭击市场。之前被套的很多交易者发誓,只要还有机会,一定要出场。
As the market rises toward its previous peak; the main question is whether it will it rise to a new high or form a double top and turn down。 Technical indicators can be of great help in answering this question。 When they rise to a new high; they tell you to hold; and when they form bearish divergences (see “Indicators … Five Bullets to a Clip;” page xx); they tell you to take profits at the second top。
当市场达到过去的最高点,主要问题是它是否会创新高,或做双顶,然后下跌。技术指标可以帮助回答这样的问题。当它们达到新高,它们会告诉你持有;当它们形成看跌背离(请看xx面“指标——一个弹夹5颗子弹”),它们叫你在第2个顶部兑现利润。
Figure 5。3 Double Tops and Bottoms; Volume
图5。3 双头和双底;成交量
Callaway Golf (ELY) reached its high of 27。18 in March; at point A; and struggled again near that level; to 26。95 in April; at point B。 A few days after it recoiled from B; the double top became clearly visible。 Many indicators (which we will review later) traced bearish divergences at that time。
高威高尔夫公司(代码ELY)的股票在3月达到27。18的高点,位置为A,然后在附近挣扎,4月达到26。95,位置为B。从B回落后的几天,双顶就很清晰了。很多指标(后面会谈到)在当时跟踪到了看跌背离。
In June the stock collapsed; as the aged founder of the pany; the inventor of the famous Big Bertha golf club; became ill and died。 In a fairly typical emotional reaction; people dumped their stock without stopping to think whether the demise of an individual would ruin a large; well…established pany。 Such declines feed on themselves; as lower prices scare more people into selling。 Notice a fantastic spike of volume; which reflected mass panic。 The low at point C looks like a kangaroo tail; although not in its most classical form。 Prices rallied above 17 at point D in what is called “a dead cat bounce;” not out of any great bullishness but simply as a reaction to the decline。
6月股票崩跌,原因是公司年老的创立者,也是著名的大贝尔塔球杆的发明人,生病去世了。在典型的恐慌情绪中大众平仓,他们也不想想,一个人的去世是否会毁了一个著名的公司。这样的下跌害了他们自己,因为下跌的股票引发更多人因恐惧而卖出。注意那个大成交量,反映了大众的恐慌。低点C看起来像袋鼠尾巴,虽然不是经典模式。价格在D点反弹到17,这叫“死猫反弹”,不会有大的上涨,只是下跌时的反弹。
At the right edge of the chart ELY is grinding down towards its recent bottom on low volume。 If it recoils from that level; it’ll establish a double bottom。 This is a fairly typical pattern … a crash; followed by a dead cat bounce; followed by a slow decline into the second bottom。 Once prices rally from the second low; they are likely to usher in a sustainable rise。
在图的右边,高威高尔夫跌到了底部,成交量很低。如果它在这个水平反弹,会建立一个双底。只是典型的模式——崩跌,紧跟着一个死猫反弹,然后慢跌到第2个底部。一旦价格从第2个低点反弹,它们很可能会引起稳定的上涨。
A mirror image of this situation occurs at market bottoms。 The market falls to a new low at which enough smart bears start covering shorts and the market rallies。 Once that rally peters out and prices start sinking again; all eyes are on the previous low … will it hold? If bears are strong and bulls skittish; prices will break below the first low; and the downtrend will continue。 If bears are weak and bulls are strong; the decline will stop in the vicinity of the old low; creating a double bottom。 Technical indicators help decipher which of the two is more likely to happen。
在这样的市场底部会发生镜像原理。市场创新低时,聪明的空头会回补空头仓位,造成市场反弹。一旦反弹结束,市场继续下跌,所有的眼睛都会看着之前的低点——会守住它吗?如果空头很强,多头担惊受怕,价格会跌过第1个低点,下跌会继续。如果空头很弱,多头很强,下跌会在第1个低点附近停下来,形成双底。技术指标会帮助分析那种情况可能会发生。
Triangles A triangle is a congestion area; a pause when winners take profits and new trend followers get aboard; while their opponents trade against the preceding trend。 It is like a train station。 The train stops to let passengers off and pick up new ones; but there is always a chance this is the last stop on the line and it may turn back。
三角形 三角形是暂时的成交密集区,赢家兑现利润,新的趋势跟踪者上车,然而他们的对手则逆市交易。就像是火车站。火车停靠,乘客下车,新乘客上车,但是也很有可能这是最后一站,市场可能反转。
The upper boundary of a triangle shows where sellers overpower buyers and prevent the market from rising。 The lower boundary shows where buyers overpower sellers and prevent the market from falling。 As the two start to converge; you know a breakout is ing。 As a general rule; the trend that preceded the triangle deserves the benefit of the doubt。 The angles between triangle walls reflect the balance of power between bulls and bears and hint at the likely direction of a breakout。
三角形的上边表明卖家的力量比买家强,阻止了市场上涨。下边表明买家比卖家强,阻止了市场下跌。双方聚集时,你知道突破会发生。通常原则下,趋势超过三角形则不必担心。三角形的角度反映了多头和空头的力量平衡,暗示了突破的方向。
An ascending triangle has a flat upper boundary and a rising lower boundary。 The flat upper line shows that bears have drawn a line in the sand and sell whenever the market es to it。 They must be a pretty powerful group; calmly waiting for prices to e to them before unloading。 At the same time buyers are being more aggressive。 They snap up merchandise and keep raising the floor under the market。
上涨的三角形,它的上边是水平的,还有一个上涨的下边。水平上边表明空头已经画了一条线,会拼命卖。他们也许很强大,安静地等待价格达到卖点。同时,买家也很积极。他们积极抢购,把市场的底部抬高。
Figure 5。4 Triangles; Pennants; and Rectangles
图5。4 三角形,旗形和矩形
Charts patterns are the footprints of bulls and bears。 Patterns A and D are called pennants … a tight weave of prices that follows a sharp move up or down its flagpole。 When a pennant flies in the direction of the trend (A); it is usually followed by a sharp reversal。 When it flies against the preceding trend (D); it is a consolidation pattern and the trend usually continues。 Place your entry orders accordingly; above or below a pennant’s boundary。
图形模式是多头和空头的足迹。模式A和D叫旗形——紧紧排列在一起的价格上涨或下跌形成旗杆。当一个旗形沿着趋势(A)的方向飘扬时,通常后面就会发生强烈的反转。当一个旗行逆着趋势(D)的方向飘扬时,它是坚固的模式,趋势通常会继续。相应地下单,在一个旗形的上面或下面边缘处下单。
Pattern B is a symmetrical triangle and pattern C is an ascending triangle。 Breakouts from triangles tend to follow the trends that preceded them; especially when triangles are pact; consisting of only a few bars。 Pattern E is a rectangle; notice how bulls and bears push against the rectangle walls; creating brief false breakouts … do not jump in too early。 When prices decisively break out of a rectangle; the reversal is plete。
模式B是对称三角形,模式C是上涨三角形。三角形的突破一般会跟随之前的趋势,尤其是三角形排列紧密,只有几条日线时。模式E是矩形,注意多头和空头是如何向矩形边缘推动的,制造了短暂的假突破——不要抢先跳入。当价格决定跳出矩形时,反转就完成了。
At the right edge of the chart; prices are below a rectangle that provides severe overhead resistance; the price is like a drowning man under an ice floe。 The trend is down; with rallies presenting shorting opportunities。
在图的右边,价格在矩形以下,矩形成为一个压力,价格就像是浮冰下即将淹死的人。趋势是下跌,反弹提供了做空的机会。
On what party should you bet? Nobody knows who’ll win the election; but savvy traders tend to place buy orders slightly above the upper line of an ascending triangle。 Since sellers are on the defensive; if the attacking bulls succeed; the breakout is likely to be steep。 This is the logic of buying upside breakouts from ascending triangles。
你想赌那边?没有人知道谁会赢,但是聪明的交易者趋向在上涨的三角形上边一点点买入。因为卖家出于被动地位,如果多头的攻击顺利,突破就是急剧上涨的。这就是在上涨三角形的上面突破处买入的原因。
A descending triangle has a flat lower boundary