走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第27章
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饩褪窃谏险侨切蔚纳厦嫱黄拼β蛉氲脑颉�
A descending triangle has a flat lower boundary and a declining upper boundary。 The horizontal lower line shows that bulls are pretty determined； calmly waiting to buy at a certain level。 At the same time； sellers are being more aggressive。 They keep selling at lower and lower levels； pushing the market closer to the line drawn by buyers。
下跌三角形有一条水平的下边，还有一条下跌的边。水平的下边表明多头很坚定，冷静地在这个水平等待买入的机会。同时，卖家很激进。他们在越来越低的水平卖出，把价格推到买家画线的地方。
As a trader； which way will you bet on the bulls or the bears？ Experienced traders tend to place their orders to sell short slightly below the lower line of a descending triangle。 Let buyers defend that line； but if bulls collapse after a long defense； a break is likely to be sharp。 This is the logic of shorting downside breakouts from descending triangles。
作为交易者，你会赌多头赢，还是赌空头赢？有经验的交易者趋向在下跌三角形下水平线下面一点点做空。让买家去防守这条线，但是如果多头在防守时崩溃，突破是很厉害的。这是在下跌三角形下方突破的地方做空的原因。
A symmetrical triangle shows that both bulls and bears are equally confident。 Bulls keep paying up； and bears keep selling lower。 Neither group is backing off； and their fight must be resolved before prices reach the tip of the triangle。 The breakout is likely to go in the direction of the trend that preceded the triangle。
对称三角形表明多头和空头都很有自信。多头愿意出钱做多，空头继续做空。双方都不后退，他们必须在三角形达到一个角的地方决出胜负。突破倾向发生在比三角形强的趋势方向。
Volume Each unit of volume represents the actions of two individuals … a buyer and a seller。 It can be measured by several numbers： shares； contracts； or dollars that have changed hands。 Volume is usually plotted as a histogram below prices。 It provides important clues about the actions of bulls and bears。 Rising volume tends to confirm trends； and falling volume brings them into question。
成交量 每单位的成交量都代表了2个人的行为——1个买家和1个卖家。可以用多种数字来计算：股票数量，合约数量，或者是换手的金额。成交量一般在价格下面用柱状图表示。它提供了多头和空头在行动方面的重要线索。上涨的成交量一般会确认趋势，下跌的成交量则带来了问题。
Volume reflects the level of pain among market participants。 At each tick in every trade； one person is winning and the other losing。 Markets can move only if enough new losers enter the game to supply profits to winners。 If the market is falling； it takes a very courageous or reckless bull to step in and buy； but without him there is no increase in volume。 When the trend is up； it takes a very brave or reckless bear to step in and sell。 Rising volume shows that losers are continuing to e in； allowing the trend to continue。 When losers start abandoning the market； volume falls； and the trend runs out of steam。 Volume gives traders several useful clues。
成交量反映了市场参与者的痛苦水平。每笔交易的每一个基点变化，都有一个人赢，另一个人输。如果有足够的新的输家进场提供利润给赢家，市场才会波动。如果市场在跌，多头需要巨大的勇气或巨大的粗心进场买入，如果没有买家，就没有成交量的增长。当市场上涨时，空头需要巨大的勇气或巨大的粗心进场做空。上涨的成交量表明输家在继续进场，让趋势继续。当输家放弃市场时，成交量下跌，趋势失去动力。成交量给了交易者几个有用的线索。
A one…day splash of unmonly high volume often marks the beginning of a trend when it acpanies a breakout from a trading range。 A similar splash tends to mark the end of a trend if it occurs during a well…established move。 Exceedingly high volume； three or more times above average； identifies market hysteria。 That is when nervous bulls finally decide that the uptrend is for real and rush in to buy or nervous bears bee convinced that the decline has no bottom and jump in to sell short。
如果某天成交量非常大，而且同时市场突破了一个横盘，这表明新的趋势开始了。如果成交量的放大发生在很大的波动中，一般表明趋势快到头了。超级大的成交量，大小为平均值的2倍或3倍，这就确认市场疯狂了。这时紧张的多头认为上涨的趋势是真的，抢着去买，或是紧张的空头认为市场没有底，抢着去做空。
Divergences between price and volume tend to occur at turning points。 When prices rise to a new high but volume shrinks； it shows that the uptrend attracts less interest。 When prices fall to a new low and volume falls； it shows that lower prices attract little interest and an upside reversal is likely。 Price is more important than volume； but good traders always analyze volume to gauge the degree of crowd involvement。 For a more objective rating of volume use an indicator called Force Index （see next section）。 Changes in volume detected by Force Index give important messages to traders。
价格和成交量的背离一般发生在转折点。当价格涨到新高，而成交量萎缩，这表明成交量无法吸引别人。当价格跌到新低，而成交量萎缩，这表明更低的价格无法吸引别人，可能要上涨。价格比成交量重要性大很多，但优秀的交易者总是分析成交量来判断大众的介入程度。对成交量更客观的使用是利用力量指数（请看后面章节）。利用力量指数发现的成交量变化给交易者传递了重要信息。
INDICATORS … FIVE BULLETS TO A CLIP
指标——一个弹夹5颗子弹
I had a friend who drove a tank in World War ll； fighting his way from Stalingrad to Vienna。 He maintained his tank with only three tools … a big hammer； a big screwdriver； and the Russian version of “f。。。you。” He won the war with a few simple tools； and we can apply his lessons to the dangerous environment of the markets。
我有个朋友在第2次世界大战时开坦克，从斯大林格勒打到维也纳。他只用3个工具维护他的坦克——一只大锤子，一只大螺丝刀，以及俄国版的“我靠”。他用几个工具赢得了战争，我们可以把他的经验推广到市场。
An amateur tries to grab a bit of money here and there。 He uses one technique today and another tomorrow。 His mind is scattered and he keeps losing； enriching only his broker and floor traders。 A new hunter walks into the woods with a load of fancy gear on his back but soon discovers that most of it only slows him down。 An experienced woodsman travels light。
业余选手总是想这也赚点，那也赚点。今天用这个技术，明天用那个技术。他的思想太分散，总是亏钱，养活了他的经纪人和场内交易者。一个刚出道的猎人背着很多神奇的装备去森林狩猎，最终发现大多数装备只是在拖累他。有经验的猎人轻装上阵。
A beginner shoots at anything that moves； including his own shadow。 An old hunter knows exactly what prey he is after and brings only a few bullets。 Simplicity and discipline go hand in hand。 To be a successful trader； choose a small number of markets； select a few tools； and learn to use them well。 If you follow five stocks； your research will be deeper and results better than if you follow 50。 If you use five indicators； you’ll get more mileage out of them than out of 25。 You can always expand later； once you make steady profits。
刚出道的猎人只要看见动的东西，就会朝它开枪，连自己的影子也不放过。老猎人知道他的猎物在哪里，通常只带几颗子弹。简单和纪律是手连手的。要想成为成功的交易者，选择几个市场，使用几个工具，把它们学好。如果你跟踪5只股票，你的研究会越来越深，结果比你跟踪50只股票要好。如果你只用5个指标，你的收获要比用50个指标多。当你取得了稳定的利润以后，你可以增加你的指标。
The indicators we are about to discuss represent the choice of one trader。 I call this approach “five bullets to a clip。” An old army rifle used to take five bullets； and I analyze markets using no more than five indicators。 If five do not help； 10 will not do any better because there probably is no trade。 I offer you this list as a starting point for selecting your own bullets。 Pay attention to the general principle of selecting indicators from different groups to focus on different aspects of crowd behavior。 The key idea is to select a few core tools that fit your style of analysis and trading。
我们即将讨论的指标代表了交易者的选择。我称作“一个弹夹5颗子弹。”过去的步枪只能装5颗子弹，我分析市场时，所用的指标不超过5个。如果5个不起作用，10个也不会起作用，因为可能无法交易。我把这个列表作为你起步时的选择范围。注意一个原则，不同的指标反映不同的大众行为。关键是选择几个适合你的分析和交易的重要工具。
The tools we are about to review … moving averages； envelopes； MACD； MACD…Histogram； and Force Index … are the building blocks of a trading system described in the following chapter。 There is no magic indicator； they all have advantages and disadvantages。 It is important to be aware of both because then we can bine several indicators into a system to take advantage of their strengths； while their disadvantages cancel each other out。
我们即将谈论的工具有——均线，包络线，MACD，MACD柱，和力量指数——这是下一章交易系统的基石。没有神奇的指标，它们都有优势和劣势。我们需要了解它们的优势和劣势，这样才能把几个指标融入一个系统，利用它们的优势，抵消它们的劣势。
Choice of Tools
可选的工具
Markets can confound traders。 They often run in two directions at once … up on the weekly charts and down on the dailies。 A market can reverse without sending you an e…mail about its change of plans。 A sleepy stock can get so hot that it burns through stops； while a formerly hot stock bees so cold it freezes your capital along with your fingers。
市场会挫败交易者。它们会突然进入某个方向——周线图上涨，日线图则下跌。市场在反转前不会给你电子邮件告诉你它的计划变了。一只沉睡的股票可能会飙涨，然而一个热门的股票会变冷，甚至能冻住你的资金和手指头。
Trading is a plex； nontrivial game。 Markets consist of huge crowds of people； and technical analysis is applied social psychology。 We must select several tools to identify different aspects of market behavior。 Before using any indicator； we must understand how it is constructed and what it measures。 We must test it on historical data and learn how it performs under different conditions。 Once you start testing an indicator； expect to adjust its settings； turning it into a personal trading tool as reliable and familiar as an old wrench。
交易是复杂的，不平凡的游戏。市场充满了大量的人，技术分析应用了社会心理。我们必须选择几个工具来确认市场行为的不同方面。在用指标之前，我们必须明白它的原理和计算方法。我们必须用历史数据来测试它，并研究它在不同情况下的表现。一旦你开始测试指标，要调整好参数，把它变成适合你的交易工具，要想老板手一样可靠。
Toolboxes vs。 Black Boxes I keep seeing ads in traders’ magazines that show puters with 100 bills ing out of their disk drives。 I’d love to get a hold of one of those models。 The only ones I could find have the direction of money reversed。 puters can chew up cash； but pulling it out of them takes a lot of hard work。 Those ads sell black boxes … puterized trading systems。 Some clown has programmed a bunch of trading rules； put them on a copy…protected diskette or a CD； and now sells you a tool with a great track record。 Feed it market data； and it will spit out an answer … when to buy or sell！ If you believe this magic； wait until you meet Santa Claus。
工具箱和黑箱 我总是在《交易者》杂志上看见广告显示100元的钞票从电脑里面出来。我真喜欢这样的产品。我得到结果是亏钱。电脑会吃钱，想把钱拿出来就难了。那些广告在推销黑箱——电脑交易系统。一些小丑利用交易原则编程，把他们放在磁盘或光盘上，还加密了，然后拿出来卖。你用市场数据测试，它会吐出答案——何时买卖！如果你真的相信它的魔力，你可以等圣诞老人给你。
A fantastic track record of a canned system is meaningless because it es from fitting the rules to old data。 Any puter can tell you which rules worked in the past。 Black…box programs self…destruct as soon as the markets change； even if they include self…optimizat
