走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第34章
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当2个或3个不同的技术工具发出相同的信息，它们互相确认。注意价格在区域C形成了一个下跌的假突破。这个突破把多头的止损都清光了，还把激进的空头吸进来了。早熟的多头被消灭了，最后的空头被陷害了，反转已经形成。被陷害的空头无法忍受痛苦，他们要回补空头仓位，这样为上涨添加了油料。
At the right edge of the chart prices are shooting higher from a bullish divergence。 This powerful pattern usually propels prices for weeks if not months。
在图的右边，价格从看涨背离涨的更高。这么强的模式可以把价格推高几周，也许是几个月。
Markets run on a two…party system … the bulls and the bears。 When MACD…Histogram rises； it shows that bulls are being stronger； and when it declines； it shows that bears are being stronger。 MACD…Histogram helps you bet on the winning party and sell short the opposition。
市场在2个方向的系统运行——多头和空头。当MACD柱上涨，它表明多头变强，当它下跌，它表明空头变强。MACD柱帮助你在赢的一方下注，反之则做空。
The Strongest Signal MACD…Histogram gives two types of signals。 One is ordinary； and we see it at every bar … it is the slope of MACD…Histogram。 An uptick of MACD…Histogram shows that bulls are stronger than they were at the previous bar； and a downtick shows that bears are gaining。 Those upticks and downticks provide minor buy and sell signals； but we shouldn’t read too much into them。 Markets do not move in straight lines； and it’s normal for MACD…Histogram to keep ticking up and down。
最强的信号 MACD柱给你2种信号。一种是普通的，每个竹线就是——MACD柱的坡度。MACD柱的上涨表明多头比前一个竹线强，下跌则表明空头强。这些上涨和下跌提供了小的买卖信号，但我们不能太认真。市场不是走直线，MACD柱上上下下是正常的。
The other signal occurs rarely； only a couple of times per year on the daily charts of most markets； but it’s worth waiting for because it is the strongest signal in technical analysis。 That signal is a divergence between the peaks and bottoms of price and MACD…Histogram。 A divergence occurs when the trend of price highs and lows goes one way and the trend of tops and bottoms in MACD…Histogram goes the opposite way。 Those patterns take several weeks or even more than a month to develop on the daily charts。
其它信号很少发生，大部分市场日线图上每年才产生几次，但是值得等待，因为这是技术分析中最强的信号。这个信号是价格的顶底和MACD柱的背离。这个背离发生在价格的趋势达到顶和底，而MACD柱的顶和底则相反。在日线图上，这样的模式需要多周或一个多月才会形成。
A bullish divergence occurs when prices trace a bottom； rally； and then sink to a new low。 At the same time MACD…Histogram traces a different pattern。 When it rallies from its first bottom； that rally lifts it above the zero line； “breaking the back of the bear。” When prices sink to a new low； MACD…Histogram declines to a more shallow bottom。 At that point； prices are lower； but the bottom of MACD…Histogram is higher； showing that bears are weaker and the downtrend is ready for a reversal。 MACD…Histogram gives a buy signal when it ticks up from its second bottom。
看涨背离发生在价格达到底部，反弹，然后创造新低。同时MACD柱跟踪到不同的模式。当它从第一个底部反弹，反弹把它带到0轴以上，“打破了空头的脊梁”。当价格下跌到新低时，MACD柱跌到比较浅的底部。在这点，价格更低，但是MACD柱的底部更高，表明空头弱了，下跌趋势要反转。MACD柱从第二个底部反弹时提供了买入信号。
Occasionally； the second bottom is followed by a third。 This is why traders must use stops and proper money management。 There are no certainties in the markets； only probabilities。 Even a reliable pattern such as a divergence of MACD…Histogram fails occasionally； which is why we must exit if prices fall below their second bottom。 We must preserve our trading capital and reenter when MACD…Histogram ticks up from its third bottom； as long as it is higher than the first。
偶尔，第2个底部以后还有第3个底部。这是交易者必须止损和资金管理的原因。市场中没有确定的事，只有可能性。偶尔，MACD柱背离这样的可靠模式也会失败，这就是在价格跌破第2个底必须出场的原因。我们必须保留资金，等MACD柱从第3个底再次上涨时再次进场，底部还要比第1个底部高。
A bearish divergence occurs when prices rise to a new high； decline； and then rise to a higher peak。 MACD…Histogram gives the first sign of trouble when it breaks below its zero line during the decline from its first peak。 When prices reach a higher high； MACD…Histogram rises to a much lower high。 It shows that bulls are weaker； and prices are rising simply out of inertia and are ready to reverse。
看跌背离发生在价格上涨到一个新高，下跌，然后又涨到更高的顶峰。MACD柱在价格从第一个顶峰时下跌到0轴以下，发出第一个麻烦的信号。当价格达到更高的高度，MACD柱上涨到很低的高度。这表明多头很弱，价格只是走出惯性，准备要反转。
The Hound of the Baskervilles MACD…Histogram offers traders what x…rays offer doctors； showing the strength or weakness of the bone below the surface of the skin。 Bulls or bears may appear powerful when prices reach a new extreme； but a divergence of MACD…Histogram shows that the dominant party is being weak and prices are ready to reverse。
巴斯克维尔猎犬 MACD柱提供的交易者的就像是X光提供给医生的，表明了皮肤下骨头的硬或软。当价格达到极端时，多头或空头也许会显得有力量，但是MACD柱的背离表明强势的一方开始变弱，价格要反转。
Go long when MACD…Histogram traces a bullish divergence； that is； when prices fall to a new low while the indicator ticks up from a more shallow low。 Get long after MACD…Histogram ticks up from its second bottom。 A bottom that is more shallow than the preceding one shows that bears have grown weaker； and the uptick tells us that bulls are taking over。 Place a protective stop below the latest bottom。 Rallies from bullish divergences tend to be very powerful； but you must always use protection in case a signal does not work out。
当MACD柱跟踪到看涨背离时做多，也就是说，当价格跌到新低，指标从一个很浅的低点上涨。当MACD柱从第二个底部上涨时做多。底部比前一个底部浅表明空头变弱了，上涨告诉我们多头主导波动了。在最后一个底部下面设置止损点。看涨背离的上涨很强，但是为了防止信号失真，你必须永远采取保护措施。
An aggressive trader can make that stop “stop…and reverse；” meaning that if stopped out of a long position； he will reverse and go short。 When a super…strong signal doesn’t pan out； it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market。 If you buy on the strongest signal in technical analysis and then your stop gets hit； it means that bears are especially strong； making it worthwhile to sell short。 Reversing positions from long to short is usually not the best idea； but the failure of a divergence of MACD…Histogram is an exception。
激进的交易者可以设置“止损并下反向单”，意味着如果多头仓位被止损，他会反转做空。当一个超级强的信号失效时，那表明基本面已经发生了变化。如果你根据很强的信号做多，但是跌到止损单位置，仓位被止损了，它意味着空头特别强，值得去做空。把多头仓位变成空头仓位通常都不是好主意，但是MACD柱的背离失败是个例外。
I call this a Hound of the Baskervilles signal； after a story by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle。 Sherlock Holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate。 His clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being mitted。 That indicated the dog knew the criminal； and the murder was an inside job。 Sherlock Holmes received his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action。 When a divergence of MACD…Histogram fails to produce a reversal； it gives a Hound of the Baskervilles signal。
我把这个叫做巴斯克维尔猎犬信号，来自阿瑟·柯南·道尔爵士的故事。有人打电话给歇洛克·福尔摩斯，让他去调查乡村的谋杀案。他的线索来自在案发时家里的狗没叫。这表明狗认识罪犯，谋杀是内部人干的。歇洛克·福尔摩斯不是通过行为得到线索，而是通过本应该发生却没有发生的行为得到了线索。当MACD柱背离不能产生反转，它就发出了巴斯克维尔猎犬信号。
Go short when the MACD…Histogram traces a bearish divergence； that is； when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak。 When the crowd gets on its hind legs and roars； it is tempting to throw caution to the wind； close our eyes； and buy。 When the crowd bees manic； it is hard to remain cool； but an intelligent trader looks for MACD…Histogram divergences。 If prices rally； decline； and then rally to a higher level； but MACD…Histogram rallies； falls below its zero line； breaking the back of the bull； and rallies again； but to a lower level； it creates a bearish divergence。 It shows that bulls have grown weaker； the stock is rising out of inertia； and as soon as that inertia runs out； the stock is likely to collapse。
当MACD柱跟踪到看跌背离时做空，也就是说，当价格上涨到新高，但是指标从低的顶峰开始下跌。当大众坐在地上嚎叫时，他们是在放松警惕，闭眼买入。当大众疯狂的时候，很难保持冷静，但是聪明的交易者会查看MACD柱背离。如果价格上涨，下跌，然后涨到新高，但是MACD柱上涨，下跌到0轴以下，打破了多头的界限，然后又上涨，但是是比较低的水平，那就产生了看跌背离。这表明多头变弱，股票的上涨是惯性，当惯性减弱，股票很可能崩跌。
MACD…Histogram flashes a signal to go short when it ticks down from its second peak。 Once short； place a stop above the latest rally peak。 Placing stops when shorting near the tops is notoriously difficult because of high volatility。 Trading smaller positions allows you to place wider stops。
当MACD柱从第二个顶峰下跌时，他就发出了做空的信号。一旦做空，在最后一个反弹顶峰处设置止损。因为波动激烈，在顶部附近下止损单特别困难。交易小点的仓位，止损距离就可以拉长点。
Divergences between MACD…Histogram and prices on the daily charts are almost always worth trading。 Divergences on the weekly charts usually mark transitions between bull and bear markets。
日线图上的MACD柱和价格的背离都值得交易。周线图上的背离通常表明了上涨和下跌的转换。
Figure 5。10 The Hound of the Baskervilles Signal
图5。10 巴斯克维尔猎犬信号
Heating oil； along with the rest of the oil plex； ran up to an historic high in November 2000。 Then the demand shrunk； new supplies entered the market； bullish mania was broken； and oil began to slide。 In December； it fell to 85 cents （point A）； with MACD…Histogram tracing a new massive low； which indicated that bears were extremely strong。 There was a brief reflex rally to the EMA； while the indicator turned positive （breaking the back of the bear） and then declined to a more shallow low （point B）。 At that time prices traced out a kangaroo tail； reaching down to 75 cents； and turned up。 That bullish divergence； bined with a tail； gave a buy signal。 Remember； no matter how strong the signal； a serious trader needs to use stops。
取暖油，和其它油产品一样，在2000年11月达到历史高点。然后需求减弱，新的供应增加到市场，多头的疯狂被打破了，油开始跌。到了12月，它跌到了85分（A点），MACD柱跟踪到了巨大的低量，这表明空头非常强。短暂的反弹到均线，指标变成正数了（打破了空头的脊梁），然后跌到更浅的底部（B点）。当时价格跟踪到了袋鼠尾巴，跌到75分，然后上涨。看跌背离，配合袋鼠尾巴，给出了买入信号。记住，不管信号多强，认真的交易者需要用止损。
Heating oil resumed its decline and gave a Hound of the Baskervilles sell signal when prices violated their bottom B in area C。 It paid to switch to the short side then because heating oil eventually slid below 68。 A violation of a bullish divergence of MACD…Histogram is a prime example of the Hound of the Baskervilles signal。 The underlying fundamentals must be extremely strong to violate a divergence； and one is well advised to trade in the direction of the break after the stop is hit。
取暖油继续下跌，当价格在区域C违反了底部B时，它给出了巴斯克维�
