走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第37章
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Bull Power = High … EMA
Bear Power = Low – EMA
多头力量＝最高价－EMA
空头力量＝最低价－EMA
A moving average reflects the average consensus of value。 The high of each bar reflects the maximum power of bulls during that bar。 The low of each bar marks the maximum power of bears during that bar。
均线反映了对价值一致认同的平均值。每个竹线的最高价反应了多头的最大力量。每个竹线的最低价反应了空头的最大力量。
Elder…ray works by paring the power of bulls and bears during each bar with the average consensus of value。 Bull Power reflects the maximum power of bulls relative to the average consensus； and Bear Power the maximum power of bears relative to that consensus。
艾尔德射线利用比较多头，空头的力量和均线来工作。多头力量反映了多头相对平均值的力量，空头力量反应了空头相对平均值的力量。
We plot Bull Power in the second windowpane as a histogram。 Its height reflects the distance between the top of the price bar and the EMA … the maximum power of bulls。 We plot Bear Power in the third windowpane。 Its depth reflects the distance between the low of the price bar and the EMA—the maximum power of bears。
我们在第2个窗口用柱状图画多头力量。它的高度反应了竹线上面最高价和均线的距离——多头的最大力量。我们在第3个窗口用柱状图画空头力量。它的深度反映了竹线上面最低价和均线的距离——空头的最大力量。
When the high of a bar is above the EMA； Bull Power is positive。 When the entire bar sinks below the EMA； which happens during severe declines； Bull Power bees negative。 When the low of a bar is below the EMA； Bear Power is negative。 When the entire bar rises above the EMA； which happens during wild rallies； Bear Power bees positive。
当竹线的高度比均线高，多头力量是正数。当整个竹线在均线下面，这发生在严重的下跌，多头力量变成负数。当竹线的最低价低于均线，空头力量是负数。当整个竹线涨到均线之上，这发生在疯狂的上涨，空头力量变成负数。
The slope of a moving average identifies the current trend of the market。 When it rises； it shows that the crowd is being more bullish； it is a good time to be long。 When it falls； it shows that the crowd is being more bearish； it is a good time to be short。 Prices keep getting away from a moving average but snap back to it； as if pulled by a rubber band。 Bull Power and Bear Power show the length of that rubber band。 Knowing the normal height of Bull or Bear Power reveals how far prices are likely to get away from their moving average before returning。 Elder…ray offers one of the best insights into where to take profits … at a distance away from the moving average that equals the average Bull Power or Bear Power。
均线的坡度确认了当前市场的趋势。当它上涨，它表明大众偏多头，此时最好做多。当它下跌，它表明大众偏空头，此时做好做空。价格总是偏离均线，但是会回到均线，就像拉橡皮筋一样。知道正常的多头或空头力量高度表明了价格离多远才会回到均线。艾尔德射线提供了一个最好的兑现利润的知识——离开均线的距离等于平均的多头或空头的力量。
Figure 5。13 Elder…ray
图5。13 艾尔德射线
“Buy low； sell high” sounds good； but traders and investors seem to have been more fortable buying Lucent above 70 than below 7。 Perhaps they are not as rational as the efficient market theorists would like us to believe？ Elder…ray gives rational traders a glimpse into what is going on below the surface of the market。
“低买高卖”听起来不错，但是交易者和投资者看起来更喜欢在70买朗讯，而不是在7之下。也许他们没有有效市场理论者那么理性？艾尔德射线让交易者看看市场下面发生了什么。
When the trend； identified by the 22…day EMA； is down and bulls are under water； the rallies back to the surface mark shorting opportunities （arrows A and B）。 Prices draw a kangaroo tail in area C； and a sharp rally follows。 A rise from 5。50 to 11。50 is nothing to sneeze at； cheaper stocks tend to have bigger percentage gains。 In area D； Lucent slides to a new low； but Bear Power traces a more shallow bottom； pleting a bullish divergence。 That false downside breakout traps bears。 As the rally accelerates； Bear power bees positive and each dip of Bear power back to its zero line marks a buying opportunity （area E）。
22日均线确认了趋势是下跌的，多头还在水面下，反弹到水面表明是做空的机会（箭头A和B）。价格在区域C画了一条袋鼠尾巴，紧接着就是大涨。从5。50涨到11。50，不可小视，便宜的股票一般收益大。在区域D，朗讯跌到新低，但是空头力量跟踪到了比较浅的底部，完成了看涨背离。那是下跌的假突破，是空头陷阱。当上涨加速时，空头力量变成正数，每次空头力量跌到0周表明是买入机会（区域E）。
Elder…ray gives buy signals in uptrends when Bear Power turns negative and then ticks up。 A negative Bear Power means that the bar is straddling the EMA； with its low below the average consensus of value。 Waiting for Bear Power to turn negative forces you to buy value rather than chase runaway moves。 The actual buy signal is given by an uptick of Bear Power； which shows that bears are starting to lose their grip and the uptrend is about to resume。 Take profits at the upper channel line or when a trend…following indicator stops rising。 Profits may be greater if you ride the uptrend to its conclusion； but taking profits at the upper channel line is more reliable。
上涨趋势中，当空头力量变成负数，然后上涨，艾尔德射线就给出了买入信号。负的空头力量表明竹线跨在均线上，它的最低点比均线低。等待空头力量变成负数，逼你去买价值，而不是追已经跑远的波动。这个买入信号来自空头力量的上涨，这表明空头开始失去力气，上涨要继续。当价格到达通道上线，或是趋势跟踪指标停止上涨时兑现利润。如果你跟着上涨趋势到结尾，利润可能很多，但是在通道上线兑现利润更可靠。
Elder…ray gives shorting signals in downtrends when Bull Power turns positive and then ticks down。 We can identify the downtrend by a declining daily or weekly EMA。 A positive Bull Power shows that the bar is straddling the EMA； with its high above the average consensus of value。 Waiting for Bull Power to turn positive before shorting forces you to sell at or above value instead of chasing waterfall declines。 The actual shorting signal is given by a downtick of Bull Power； which shows that bulls are starting to slip and the downtrend is about to resume。 Once short； take profits at the lower channel line or when the trend…following indicator stops falling； depending on your style。 You can make more money by holding on for the duration of the downtrend； but it is easier to achieve steady results by taking profits at the lower channel line。 A beginning trader is better off learning to catch short swings； while leaving long…term trend trading for a later stage of development。
在下跌趋势中，当多头力量变成正数，然后下跌时，艾尔德射线给出做空信号。我们可以通过下跌的日线图或均线来确认下跌。正数的多头力量表明竹线跨在均线上，他的最高点比价值一致认同的平均值高。在做空前等待多头力量变成正数，逼你在价值或价值之上卖出，而不是追下跌。真正的做空信号是多头力量的下跌给出的，这表明多头开始放手，下跌还要继续。一旦做空，在通道下线或是趋势跟踪指标停止下跌时兑现利润，依据你的风格决定。你可以通过在下跌趋势中继续持有赚更多钱，但是在通道下线兑现利润更容易实现稳定收益。新手交易者最好先学习抓住小的波动，把长期的趋势放在以后。
Stochastic This oscillator identifies overbought and oversold conditions； helping us buy low or sell high。 Just as important； it helps avoid buying at high prices or shorting at low prices。 This indicator was popularized by George Lane decades ago and is now included in most software packages。
随即指标 这个振荡指标确认超买和超卖的状况，帮助我们低买或高卖。同样重要的是，它能帮助避免在高点买或在低点卖。这个指标是乔治·莱茵在几十年前发明的，现在大多数波动软件里面都有。
Stochastic measures the capacity of bulls to close prices near the top of the recent trading range and the capacity of bears to close them near the bottom。 It ties the high of the range； representing the maximum power of bulls； with the low； representing the maximum power of bears； and with closing prices； the final balance in the markets； representing the actions of smart money。
随机指标计算多头在顶部附近的收盘能力和空头在底部附近的收盘能力。它把多头的最大力量，空口的最大力量造成的波动高度，和收盘价联系起来，市场的最终平衡，反映了聪明钱的运动。
Bulls may push prices higher during the day； or bears may push them lower； but Stochastic measures their performance at closing time … the crucial money…counting time in the markets。 If bulls lift prices during the day but cannot close them near the high of the recent range； Stochastic turns down； identifying weakness and giving a sell signal。 If bears push prices down during the day but cannot close them near the lows； Stochastic turns up； identifying strength and giving a buy signal。
也许当天多头把价格推高了，或者是空头把价格压低了，但是随机指标用收盘价来计算他们——关键的数钱时机。如果多头把价格推高，但并没有在最近的高点附近收盘，随机指标下跌，确认弱势，给出卖出信号。如果空头把价格压下去了，但是没有在底部附近收盘，随机指标上涨，确认力量，给出买入信号。
There are two types of Stochastic： Fast and Slow。 Both consist of two lines： the fast line； called ％K； and the slow line； called ％D。 We construct Fast Stochastic in two steps and Slow Stochastic in three steps：
有2种随机指标：快的和慢的。2种都带了2条线：快线叫％K，慢线叫％D。我们用2步构造快线，用3步构造慢的随机指标。
1。 Obtain ％K； the fast line。
％K =（Closetoday…Lown）/（Highn…lown）×100
Where
Closetoday = today’s close
Lown = the lowest low for the selected number of bars
Highn = the highest high for the selected number of bars
n = the number of bars for Stochastic （selected by the trader）
1。 得到％K，快线
％K＝（今天的收盘价－最低价n）/（最高价n－最低价n）×100
定义如下：
今天的收盘价＝今天的收盘价
最低价n＝所选竹线中的最低价
最高价n＝所选条向中的最高价
N＝随机指标的数量（由交易者自定）
We have to choose the number of days； or bars； over which to calculate Stochastic … the value of n。 If we use a low number； below 10； Stochastic will focus on the recent bars and flag minor turning points。 If we choose a wider window； Stochastic will look at more data and flag major turns； missing minor ones。
我们必须选择天数，或是竹线数，这样才能计算出随机指标——也就是n的值。如果我们使用比较小的数字，比如10，随机指标就会关注最近的竹线，提示比较小的反转点。如果我们选择比较大的范围，随机指标就是看大量数据，提示大的反转，并忽略小的。
How wide should we make the Stochastic window？ Since we use oscillators to catch reversals； short…term windows are better； we should reserve longer time windows for trend…following indicators。 Five or seven days are a good starting point； but consider testing longer parameters to find the ones that work best in your market。
我们应该用多大的窗口？因为我们用振荡指标去抓反转，短期窗口比较好，我们应该把长期窗口留给趋势跟踪指标。5或7天是比较好的，但是可以考虑测试更长的参数，以找到适合你的市场的参数。
2。 Obtain ％D； the slow line。 We obtain ％D by smoothing the fast line ％K over a number of bars that is shorter than ％K。 For example； if we decide to plot a five…day Stochastic； we will use the value of five for the ％K formula； above； and three bars for the ％D formula； below：
2。 得到％D，慢线。我们通过给快线％K除以几条竹线来得到慢线％D。比如，如果我们想画5天随机指标，我们就是用5放在上面的公式里，3条竹线放在如下％D公式里面：
％D=｛＇Three…bar sum of （closetoday…lown）＇/＇Three…bar sum of （Highn…Lown）＇｝×100
Fast Stochastic is very sensitive to price changes； making its lines appear jagged。 It pays to add one more step and convert it into a smoother Slow Stochastic。 Of course； a puter does this all automatically。
快速随机指标对价格变化很敏感，�
