走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第41章
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沾聪滦碌腿丛诟叩愀浇张淌保蛉搿�
The method of Triple Screen is to analyze markets in several time…frames and use both the trend…following indicators and oscillators。 We make a strategic decision to trade long or short using trend…following indicators on long…term charts。 We make tactical decisions to enter or exit using oscillators on shorter…term charts。 The original method has not changed； but the system … the exact choice of indicators … has evolved over the years； as have the techniques。
三重滤网方法是对市场用不同的时间周期来分析，并同时运用趋势指标和振荡指标作为研判工具。用长期图表上的趋势指标进行分析，做策略决定，是做多，还是做空。在短期图表上采用振荡指标，做战术决定，确定进场点和出场点。最初的方法没有改变，但是系统——所采用的指标——则随着年月的增长而有所演进，技术也是这样演进。
Triple Screen examines each potential trade using three screens or tests。 Each screen uses a different timeframe and indicators。 These screens filter out many trades that seem attractive at first。 Triple Screen promotes a careful and cautious approach to trading。
三重滤网采用三重过滤或测试的方法对每笔可能的交易进行检验。每重滤网都采用了不同的周期和指标。这些滤网淘汰了许多乍看之下诱惑人心的交易。三重滤网采用明察审慎的态度来对待交易。
Conflicting Indicators
指标的冲突
Technical indicators help identify trends or turns more objectively than chart patterns。 Just keep in mind that when you change indicator parameters； you influence their signals。 Be careful not to fiddle with indicators until they tell you what you want to hear。
在确认趋势或反转时，技术指标比图表更为客观。注意，如果你改动指标参数，你就影响了指标信号。千万不要为了得到自己想看见的东西而不断调整指标。
We can divide all indicators into three major groups：
我们可以把所有指标分为三类：
Trend…following indicators help identify trends。 Moving averages； MACD lines； Directional system； and others rise when the markets are rising； decline when markets fall； and go flat when markets enter trading ranges。
趋势指标有助于确认趋势。有移动平均线，MACD，方向系统等等。这些指标的特点是市场上涨时，指标也上涨，市场下跌时，指标也下跌。市场是盘整时，指标也随着走平。
Oscillators help catch turning points by identifying overbought and oversold conditions。 Envelopes or channels； Force Index； Stochastic； Elder…ray； and others show when rallies or declines outrun themselves and are ready to reverse。
振荡指标通过确认超买超卖状态捕捉反转点。有包络线或通道，力量指数，随机指标，艾尔德射线指标等等。这些指标通过确认市场涨跌过头的情况来提示反转。
Miscellaneous indicators help gauge the mood of the market crowd。 Bullish Consensus； mitments of Traders； New High … New Low Index； and others reflect the general levels of bullishness or bearishness in the market。
综合指标有助于辨识大众的市场情绪。有情绪指标，持仓量报告，新高新低指数等等，它们反映市场涨跌心理的整体水平。
Different groups of indicators often give conflicting signals。 Trend…following indicators may turn up； telling us to buy； while oscillators bee overbought； telling us to sell。 Trend…following indicators may turn down； giving sell signals； while oscillators bee oversold； giving buy signals。 It is easy to fall into the trap of wishful thinking and start following those indicators whose message you like。 A trader must set up a system that takes all groups of indicators into account and handles their contradictions。
不同类型的指标经常发出相互矛盾的信号。趋势指标上涨，叫我们买，而同时振荡指标却已处于超买状态，叫我们卖。趋势指标下跌。给出做空信号，而振荡指标却处于超卖状态，给出做多信号。这种情形下，交易者容易掉进一厢情愿的陷阱，他会选择他喜欢的指标信号交易。交易者必须建立一个系统，能够对各类指标进行综合考虑，并能处理不同类型指标之间的矛盾。
Conflicting Timeframes
不同时间周期的冲突
An indicator can call an uptrend and a downtrend in the same stock on the same day。 How can this be？ A moving average may rise on a weekly chart； giving a buy signal； but fall on a daily chart； giving a sell signal。 It may rally on an hourly chart； telling us to go long； but sink on a 10…minute chart； telling us to short。 Which of those signals should we take？
同一个指标能在同一天告诉我们一只股票既处在上涨趋势，又处在下跌趋势。怎么会这样？同样的均线，在周线图上是上涨的，发出买入信号；但是在日线图上，均线却是下跌的，发出卖出信号。同样，60分钟图里均线上涨，提示做多，而10分钟图里均线却下跌，提示做空。我们应当如何处理这些矛盾的信号呢？ Amateurs reach for the obvious。 They grab a single timeframe； most often daily； apply their indicators and ignore other timeframes。 This works only until a major move swells up from the weeklies or a sharp spike erupts from the hourly charts and flips their trade upside down。 Whoever said that ignorance was bliss was not a trader。
业余选手选择最明显的信号，并仅仅盯着单一的时间周期，通常是日线图，他们用日线图使用指标分析，忽略了其它的时间周期。这种做法只在周线图产生上涨的主趋势时才会有效，否则小时图上发生的剧烈变动会让他们的交易变得一团糟。交易者不应当忽略不同时间周期间的关系。
People who have lost money with daily charts often imagine they could do better by speeding things up and using live data。 If you cannot make money with dailies； a live screen will only help you lose faster。 Screens hypnotize losers； but a determined one can get even closer to the market by renting a seat and going to trade on the floor。 Pretty soon a margin clerk for the clearing house notices that the new trader’s equity has dropped below limit。 He sends a runner into the pit who taps that person on the shoulder。 The loser steps out and is never seen again … he has “tapped out。”
有些人用日线做交易亏了钱，他们经常一厢情愿地认为，如果加快交易频率并且采用即时数据，交易会有所起色。实际上，如果用日线图不能赚钱，那么即时数据只会让交易者亏的更惨。屏幕上纷纭变动的数据让这些输家陷入了迷乱状态。也有更顽固的人采取了极端作法，跑到交易所里租了一个席位，采用场内更为快速的数据来交易。很快，清算所的保证金职员就会注意到，这个新面孔的资金发生缩水，并到达风险警示水平。于是工作人员进场通知这个不幸的人，输家起身出场，从此销声匿迹——他，出局了。
The problem with losers is not that their data is too slow； but their decision…making process is a mess。 To resolve the problem of conflicting timeframes； you should not get your face closer to the market； but push yourself further away； take a broad look at what’s happening； make a strategic decision to be a bull or a bear； and only then return closer to the market and look for entry and exit points。 That’s what Triple Screen is all about。
发生上述的问题，原因不是数据传输太过迟缓，而是他的决策过程混乱无序，没有章法。解决时间周期冲突的问题，交易者不应当进一步接近市场，而是后撤——用大视野来把握大势。策略上，确定多空方向，然后再接近市场，去寻找进场点和出场点。这就是三重滤网要探讨的。
What is long term and what is short term？ Triple Screen avoids rigid definitions by focusing instead on the relationships between time…frames。 It requires you to begin by choosing your favorite timeframe； which it calls intermediate。 If you like to work with daily charts； your intermediate timeframe is daily。 If you are a day…trader and like five…minute charts； then your intermediate timeframe is the five…minute chart； and so on。
什么是长，什么是短？三重滤网理论避开了僵化的定义，将重心放在不同周期间的关系上，从而巧妙地解决了这个问题。首先，你要选择你最喜欢的时间周期，它被称为中周期，如果你喜欢日线交易，那么你的中周期就是日线图，如果你是日内交易者，喜欢用5分钟图，那么中周期就是5分钟图。依次类推。
Triple Screen defines the long term by multiplying the intermediate timeframe by five （see “Time … The Factor of Five；” page xx）。 If your intermediate timeframe is daily； then your long…term timeframe is weekly。 If your intermediate timeframe is five minutes； then your long…term is half…hourly； and so forth。 Choose your favorite timeframe； call it intermediate； and immediately move up one order of magnitude to a long…term chart。 Make your strategic decision there； and return to the intermediate chart to look for entries and exits。
按照三重滤网的定义，将中周期乘以5，即可得到长周期。（请看“时间——5的因素”）。若你的中周期是日线图，则长周期是周线图。中周期是5分钟图，则长周期是30分钟图，以此类推。选择你喜欢的交易周期，把它定义为中周期，然后将它放大，形成上一级别的长周期。在长周期图表上制定策略，再返回到中周期来寻找进场点和出场点。
The key principle of Triple Screen is to begin your analysis by stepping back from the markets and looking at the big picture for strategic decisions。 Use a long…term chart to decide whether you are bullish or bearish； and then return closer to the market to make tactical choices about entries and exits。
三重滤网的核心原则就是开始分析时，首先后撤一步，采用大视角考察长期图表，以制定策略，确定多空方向。然后再接近市场，做出战术决策以寻找进场点和出场点。
The Principles of Triple Screen
三重滤网的原则
Triple Screen resolves contradictions between indicators and time…frames。 It reaches strategic decisions on long…term charts； using trend…following indicators … this is the first screen。 It proceeds to make tactical decisions about entries and exits on the intermediate charts； using oscillators … this is the second screen。 It offers several methods for placing buy and sell orders … this is the third screen； which we may implement using either intermediate … or short…term charts。
三重滤网解决了指标和交易周期存在的相互冲突的矛盾。首先在长期图上采用趋势指标制定策略——这是第一重滤网。然后在中期图表上运用振荡指标来确定进场点和出场点——这是第二重滤网。三重滤网提供了数种方法来设置买卖订单——这是第三重滤网，我们可以采用中间图或短期图来安排交易单。
Begin by choosing your favorite timeframe； the one with whose charts you like to work； and call it intermediate。 Multiply its length by five to find your long…term timeframe。 Apply trend…following indicators to long…term charts to reach a strategic decision to go long； short； or stand aside。 Standing aside is a legitimate position。 If the long…term chart is bullish or bearish； return to the intermediate charts and use oscillators to look for entry and exit points in the direction of the long…term trend。 Set stops and profit targets before switching to short…term charts； if available； to fine…tune entries and exits。
首先选择你最喜欢的周期，把你交易的周期定义为中周期。然后把这个周期的长度乘以5，得到长周期。在这个长周期上采用趋势指标，制定策略，确定做多，做空或是观望。观望也是合理的做法。如果长期图看涨或看跌，则返回到中期图，用振荡指标来寻找顺应着长期趋势方向的进场点和出场点。在切换到短期图表之前，设置好止损和利润目标，如果可能，精确地调整好进场点和出场点。
SCREEN ONE
第一重滤网
Choose your favorite timeframe and call it intermediate。 Multiply it by five to find the long…term timeframe。 Let’s say you prefer to work with daily charts。 In that case； move immediately one level higher； to the weekly chart。 Do not permit yourself to peek at the dailies because this may color your analysis of weekly charts。 If you are a day…trader； you might choose a 10…minute chart as your favorite； call it intermediate； and then immediately move up to the hourly chart； approximately five times longer。 Rounding off is not a problem； technical analysis is a craft； not an exact science。 If you are a long…term investor； you might choose a weekly chart as your favorite and then go up to the monthly。
选择你最喜欢的交易周期，并将它定义为中周期。再把它的长度乘以5，得到长周期。如果你选择日线作为中周期，则立刻将注意力移到周线图，在你的长�
