走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第5章
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latility。 Liquidity refers to the average daily volume； pared with that of other vehicles in its group。 The higher the volume； the easier it is to get in and out。 You can build a profitable position in a thin stock； only to get caught in the door at the exit and suffer slippage trying to take profits。 Volatility is the extent of movement in your vehicle。 The more it moves； the greater the trading opportunities。 For example； stocks of many utility panies are very liquid but hard to trade because of low volatility … they tend to stay in narrow price ranges。 Some low…volume； low…volatility stocks may be good investments for your long…term portfolio； but not for trading。 Remember that not all markets are good for trading simply because you have a strong opinion on their future direction。 They also must have good volume and move well。
当你选择市场时，请记住，无论是股票、期货还是期权，它们都要符合2个标准：流动性和波动性。流动性就是说和其它市场比，平均每天的成交量要大。成交量越大，进出越容易。你在一个股票上建仓，也许会因为滑点而无法出场。波动性就是波动的最大程度。波动越厉害，交易机会越好。比如说，如果公司的股票很少波动，那么就难交易——因为它们待在很窄的交易区间。一些低交易量，低波动性的股票是长线投资的好市场，但不适合交易。记住，不是每个市场因为你看好它的未来就会有好的交易机会。它们必须有交易量，还要有很好的波动。
STOCKS
股票
A stock is a certificate of pany ownership。 If you buy 100 shares of a pany that issued 100 million shares； you own one…millionth of that firm。 You bee a part owner of that business； and if other people want to own it； they will have to bid for your shares； lifting their value。
股票是拥有公司的证明。如果一个公司发行了1亿股股票，你买了100股，那么你拥有这个公司的100万分之1。你成为生意的拥有者，如果其他人也想拥有它，他们需要报更高的价格买入。
When people like the prospects of a business； they bid for its shares； pushing up prices。 If they don’t like the outlook； they sell their stock； depressing prices。 Public panies try to push up share prices because it makes it easier for them to float more equity or sell debt。 The bonuses of top executives are often tied to stock prices。
如果人们看好这家企业的生意前景，他们就会竞价购买股票，把价格推高。如果他们不看好前景，他们就会卖出股票，价格下跌。上市公司尽力把股价推高，因为这样可以得到更多资金或减少负债。公司高层的奖金是和股价紧密联系的。
Fundamental values； especially earnings； drive prices in the long run； but John Maynard Keynes； the famous economist and a canny stock picker； retorted “In the long run we’re all dead。” Markets are full of cats and dogs； stocks of unprofitable panies that at some point fly through the roof； defying gravity。 Stocks of sexy new industries； such as biotechnology or the Internet； can fly on the expectations of future earnings rather than on any real operating records。 Each dog has its day in the sun before reality sets in。 Stocks of profitable； well…run panies may drift sideways to down。 The market reflects the sum total of what every participant knows； thinks； or feels about a stock； and a declining price means large holders are selling。 The essential rule in any market is “It’s OK to buy cheap； but not OK to buy down。” Don’t buy a stock that’s trending lower； even if it looks like a bargain。 If you like its fundamentals； use technical analysis to confirm that the trend is up。
内在价值，尤其是赢利能力，长期会推动股价上涨，但是著名的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯，也是精明的炒股人士，他说：“长期而言，我们都是死的。”市场到处都是低价股票，不赚钱公司的股票有时会飞破屋顶。新兴行业的股票，比如生化或互联网的股票，是预期未来有巨大的收益而飞涨的，不是根据生产纪录涨的。在现实发生之前，任何股票都有表现的时候。赚钱的公司，运转良好的公司，他们的股票可能会横盘下跌。市场反映了每个参与者的知识、思想或者感觉，下跌的价格意味着大户在卖。任何市场的关键原则是：“买便宜的没问题，但不要买下跌的。” 即使看起来很便宜，也不要买下跌趋势的股票。如果你喜欢它的基本面，要利用技术分析来确认是否趋势向上。
Warren Buffett； one of the most successful investors in America； is fond of saying that when you buy a stock； you bee a partner of a manic…depressive fellow he calls Mr。 Market。 Each day Mr。 Market runs up and offers either to buy you out of business or to sell you his share。 Most of the time you should ignore him because the man is psychotic； but occasionally Mr。 Market bees so terribly depressed that he offers you his share for a song … and that’s when you should buy。 At other times he bees so manic that he offers an insane price for your share … and that’s when you should sell。
沃伦·巴菲特是美国最成功的投资者之一，他喜欢说，如果你买股票，你会认识一个性情变化无常的人，他自称市场先生，你会成为他的伙伴。市场先生每天出现，要么买你的股票，要么卖股票给你。一般情况下，你不要理他，因为他有神经质，但是偶尔市场先生会极度伤感，他让你去买他的股票——这时你应该买。其它时间他很疯狂，报价也很离谱——这时你应该卖。
This idea is brilliant in its simplicity； but hard to implement。 Mr。 Market sweeps most of us off our feet because his mood is so contagious。 Most people want to sell when Mr。 Market is depressed and buy when he is manic。 We need to keep our sanity。 We need objective criteria to decide how high is too high and how low is too low。 Buffett makes his decisions on the basis of fundamental analysis and a fantastic gut feel。 Traders can use technical analysis。
这个思想讲起来容易，做起来难。市场先生的情绪很具有传染性，所以他很容易把我们扫倒。当市场先生沮丧时，大多数人想卖；当市场先生疯狂时，大多数人想买。我们要保持清醒。我们要有一个客观的标准，以确定什么是太高，什么是太低。巴菲特利用基本面分析和自己神奇的内心感觉来做决定。交易者可以使用技术分析。
Speaking of gut feel； this is something that an investor or a trader may develop after years of successful experience。 What beginners call gut feel is usually an urge to gamble； and I tell them they have no right to a gut feel。
谈到内心感觉，投资者和交易者需要经过多年成功的经验才会有内心感觉。新手的内心感觉就是赌博的冲动，我告诉他们，他们并没有权利谈自己的内心感觉。
What stocks should we trade？ There are more than 10；000 of them in the United States； with even more abroad。 Peter Lynch； a highly successful money manager； writes that he only buys stocks in panies that are so simple that an idiot could run them … because eventually one will。 But Lynch is an investor； not a trader。 Stocks of many panies with little fundamental value can embark on fantastic runs； making heaps of money for bullish traders before collapsing and making just as much money for the bears。
交易哪个股票呢？美国有10000多个股票，国外的更多。彼得·林奇是一个成功的基金经理，他说如果一个公司很简单，连傻瓜都能管理好，那么他就会买这个公司的股票——因为肯定有人能管理好。但林奇是投资者，不是交易者。很多公司，基本面不怎么好，但是股票能狂涨，股价崩溃前能让做多的交易者赚到很多钱，同样下跌时也能赚到这么多钱。
The stock market offers a wealth of choices； even after we cut out illiquid or flat stocks。 You open a business newspaper； and stories of fantastic rallies and breathtaking declines leap at you from the pages。 Should you jump on the bandwagon and trade stocks in the news？ Have they moved too far from the gate？ How do you find future leaders？ Having to make so many choices stresses beginners。 They spread themselves thin； jumping between stocks instead of focusing on a few and learning to trade them well。 Newbies who cannot confidently trade a single stock go looking for scanning software that will let them track thousands。
即使不考虑那些不活跃的，交易平淡的股票，股市还是提供了致富的机会。你随便打开一张报纸，都会看到暴涨或者暴跌的股票故事。你会不会根据新闻的线索见风使舵来炒股呢？他们是不是已经跑的很远了？你如何发现未来的领头羊？太多的选择让新手感到压力。他们不知道重点研究几个股票，也不知道如何做好交易，他们什么都学，以致什么都没学好。新手对一个股票没有把握，他就寻找软件，让软件帮他同时跟踪几千个股票。
In addition to stocks； you can choose from their kissing cousins； mutual funds； called unit trusts in Europe。 Long…term investors tend to put money into diversified funds which hold hundreds of stocks。 Traders tend to focus on sector funds that let them trade specific sectors of the economy or entire countries。 You pick a favorite sector or country and leave individual stock selection to the supposedly hot…shot analysts laboring at those funds。
除了股票，你还可以选择相关的共同基金。长线投资者喜欢把钱投入到各种各样的基金，因为基金会买几百种股票。交易者关注行业基金，因为他们可以针对经济的特点交易，也可以选择投资到某个国家的基金。你可以选择喜欢的经济面或者国家，让著名的基金分析师帮你选股票吧。
Choosing a winning stock or fund is a lot harder than listening to tips at a party or scanning headlines in a newspaper。 A trader must develop a set of fundamental or technical search parameters； have the discipline to follow his system； and spread a safety net of money management under his account。 We will delve into all three areas in Part 2。
选择一个赚钱的股票或基金比听消息要难多了，也比研究报纸难多了。交易者必须形成自己的一套基本面分析或技术面分析的参数，要遵守自己的系统，还要有出色的资金管理。我们会在第2部分详细讨论这些问题。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ How to Buy Stocks by Louis Engel is the best introductory book for stock investors and traders。 The author died years ago； but the publisher updates the book every few years … be sure to get the latest edition。
能告诉我如何开始吗？路易斯·安吉尔写的《股票指南》（张轶注：国内译名）是最好的入门书。作者在几年前死了，但是出版社会每过几年就更新一次——一定要买最新的版本。
FUTURES
期货
Futures look dangerous at first … nine out of ten traders go bust in their first year。 As you look closer； it bees clear that the danger is not in futures but in the people who trade them。 Futures offer traders some of the best profit opportunities； but the dangers are mensurate with rewards。 Futures make it easy for gamblers to shoot themselves in the foot； or higher。 A trader with good money management skills needn’t fear futures。
期货一开始看起来很可怕——10个人里面有9个会在第1年被淘汰。当你看近点，你会发现期货并没有风险，而是交易的人有风险。对有些交易者来说，期货提供了最好的赚钱机会，但是风险总是伴随着回报。期货很容易让赌徒开枪打中自己的脚，又或者是打的太远。如果一个交易者有很好的资金管理，他不必害怕期货。
Futures used to be called modities； the irreducible building blocks of the economy。 Old…timers used to say that a modity was something that hurt when you dropped it on your foot … gold； sugar； wheat； crude oil。 In recent decades many financial instruments began to trade like modities … currencies； bonds； stock indexes。 The term futures includes traditional modities along with new financial instruments。
过去期货叫商品，是经济中不可缺少的元素。过去人们喜欢说商品就是你掉在地上砸自己脚的东西——黄金，糖，小麦，原油。最近几十年，很多金融工具开始出现，它们类似商品——外汇，债券，股指期货。期货这个说法包括了传统的商品和新的金融工具。
A future is a contract to deliver or accept delivery of a specific quantity of a modity by a certain date。 A futures contract is binding on both buyer and seller。 In options the buyer has the right but not an obligation to take delivery。 If you buy a call or a put； you can walk away if you like。 In futures； you have no such luxury。 If the market goes against you； you have to add money to your margin or get out of your trade at a loss。 Futures are stricter than options but are priced better for traders。
期货就是一�
