走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第52章
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Market Thermometer can help you set a profit target for the next trading day。 If you are a short…term trader and are long； add the value of today’s Thermometer EMA to yesterday’s high and place a sell order there。 If you are short； subtract the value of the Thermometer’s EMA from yesterday’s low and place an order to cover at that level。
市场温度可以帮助你确定第二天的赢利目标。如果你是短线交易者，是做多的，把昨天最高点加上温度均线的值，在那里下单卖出。如果你是做空的，把昨天最低点减去温度均线的值，在那里回补。
I had two purposes in presenting the Market Thermometer。 I wanted to give you a new indicator； but even more I wanted to show you how to use your understanding of the markets to design your own analytic tools。 Once you understand the principles of market analysis； you can create your own indicators。 Use your knowledge； understanding； and discipline to get on the right side of the markets。
我提出市场温度有2个目的。我希望给你一个新指标，但更重要的是我想告诉你如何学习市场，设计自己的分析工具。一旦你知道了如何分析市场，你可以设计自己的指标。利用你的知识，经验和纪律去顺应市场。
EXITING TRADES
出场
Whenever you enter a trade； three factors must be crystal clear in your mind … where to get in； where to take profits； and where to bail out in case of an emergency。 Daydreaming about profits will not make you rich。 You must decide in advance where you’ll take your winnings off the table or cut and run if the market turns against you。
无论何时你进场，你必须清楚3点——何处进场，何处兑现利润，当出现紧急情况时，何处出场。梦想发财并不能让你致富。你必须提前想到，何时带着赢利离开赌桌，或者是市场对你不利时，如何逃跑。
Beginners keep looking for promising trades and assume that finding them will make them money。 They search for entries； while professionals spend a lot of time and energy planning their exits。 They always ask themselves where to take profits or cut losses。 Survivors know the essential truth … you don’t get paid for entering trades； you get paid for exiting them。
新手总是在寻找有保证的交易，以为这样就能赚钱了。他们寻找进场点，然而专业人士花很多时间研究如何出场。他们经常问自己，在何处兑现利润，在何处止损。生存者知道关键的事实——进场不会赚钱，出场会赚钱。
Why think about an exit before you enter a trade？ Isn’t it better to get in； monitor the trade； and exit in response to price action？ There are two main arguments for deciding on an exit before you enter a trade。
为什么要在进场前研究出场？先进场，观察仓位，根据价格波动再出场，不是更好吗？在你进场前，有2件事要搞清楚。
First； knowing your targets and stops allows you to weigh rewards and risks。 If you have a clear signal to buy； with a price target of 2 above and a stop 4 below； is that trade worth taking？ Do you want to risk 4 to gain 2？ Price targets and stops prompt you to focus only on trades whose potential rewards far outweigh the risks。 The ability to walk away from a potential trade is as important as the ability to decline a drink when you want。
首先，知道了利润目标和止损点就能计算回报和风险。如果你有明显的买入信号，利润目标是2元，止损是4元，值得交易吗？你愿意承受4元的风险而去赚2元吗？利润目标和止损点能让你专注于风险低，回报大的交易。放弃交易机会的能力和放弃喝酒的能力一样重要。
Second； setting profit targets and stops before entering trades helps sidestep the pernicious “ownership effect。” We get attached to things we own and lose objectivity。 That old ratty jacket hanging in your closet should have been given to the Salvation Army years ago。 That trade you entered last week is starting to e apart at the seams。 Why don’t you chuck it？ You own both the jacket and the trade； they feel fortable； familiar。 That’s why you need to decide on exits before you enter； before a trade bees yours。
第二，在进场前定好利润目标和止损点就躲开了致命的“拥有者效应”。我们对自己拥有的东西有依赖心理，容易失去主观。挂在衣橱里面的破甲克，几年前就应该送给救世军。上周建的仓位现在已经出现亏损了。为什么不放弃呢？因为你拥有夹克和仓位，你感觉很舒服。所以要在仓位被你拥有之前就定好出场点。
A friend who is a top…notch technical analyst temporarily took a job as a broker after falling on hard times when his hedge fund closed。 Naturally； I moved one of my accounts to him。 Whenever I called to place an order； he would not let me hang up unless I gave him a stop。 Sometimes I’d plead for a little more time and he’d take my order； on the condition that I call back within five minutes to give him a stop； or else he would call me。 Six months later he found work as a technical analyst； and I have never seen another broker like him since。 He really stressed the need to know your safety parameters before you took on market risk。
我有个朋友，他是顶尖的技术分析师。他大亏了几次，只好解散了自己的对冲基金，找了一个临时工作，做经纪人。很自然，我就把我的部分账户转到他的公司。每次当我打电话给他下单时，如果我不告诉他止损点，他是不会挂电话的。有时我会求他，让他多给点时间给我，他就先接受我的订单，如果我没有在5分钟之内告诉他止损点，他就会打电话找我要。半年后他找了一个技术分析的工作，我再也没见过像他这样的经纪人。他确实强调了，在承受风险之前，要知道你的安全区域。
Before entering a trade； you should set two specific price levels； a target and a stop； one above and the other below current prices。 This is all you need for a short…term trade； where you shoot at a clearly visible target。 You may find a broker who accepts OCO （one cancels other） orders。 Then； if your profit target is hit； the stop is automatically cancelled； and vice versa。 If your broker does not accept OCO orders； give him your stop and keep an eye on your profit target。
在进场前，你应该明确2个具体的价格，目标利润点和止损点，一个在市价之上，一个在市价之下。做短线时，这是你所要知道的所有方面。你也许会发现有些经纪人接受这样的订单，一个成交，另一个就自动撤销。如果价格碰到你的利润目标，止损单就自动撤销，反之也一样。如果你的经纪人不接受这样的订单，你就告诉他你的止损点，同时死盯着自己的利润目标。
What if you’re planning a fairly long…term trade that may last for several days or even weeks？ Profit targets shift with the passage of time； and protective stops need to be tightened as the trade moves in your favor。 You must write down your rules for exiting trades and follow them from that piece of paper without arguing； haggling； or hoping for a better price。 For example； you may decide to exit if the upper channel line gets hit or if the market makes lower lows for two days in a row。 Whatever rules you use； write them down and execute immediately once the market hits a profit target or a stop…loss level in accordance with your rules。
如果你是做长线的，时间长达数天或数周，怎么办？随着时间的推移，利润目标可以在对自己有利时做改变，保护性的止损则要看紧。你必须书面写下你的出场点，必须坚持这个原则，不可以争论，不可以讨价还价，不可以幻想。比如，你也许决定当价格碰到通道上线，或市场连续2天出现最低点，你就出场。不管你的原则是什么，一定要写下来，一旦市场碰到利润目标，或止损点，就要根据原则立刻执行。
Very experienced traders know how to recognize unusually forceful trends； during which they shift exit strategies； take partial profits； and carry the balance of their positions with a modified exit strategy for runaway trends。 As you bee more experienced； you can bee a little more relaxed with your plans； but a beginning or an intermediate trader must be very strict。 Entries are easy because any clown can buy a lottery ticket； but exits separate winners from losers。
有经验的交易者知道如何认出不正常的趋势，此时他就会出场，兑现部分利润，对于剩下来的仓位，他会根据趋势改变出场策略。当你积累经验以后，你的计划就会简单了，但是对于新手，或交易时间不长的人，必须严格。进场很容易，因为任何小丑都会买彩票，但是出场水平能区分赢家和输家。
Channel Targets
通道目标
Traders all over the world squint at their charts； trying to recognize patterns； and let their imaginations run wild。 Statistical studies； however； consistently confirm only one pattern … the tendency of prices to fluctuate above and below value。 Markets may be chaotic most of the time； but their overbought and oversold conditions create islands of order that provide some of the best trading opportunities。 Markets swing between elation and despair； and we can make money from those moods。
全世界的交易者都在看图表，寻找模式，想象能赚钱。然而，统计表明，只有一个模式是不变的——价格总是围绕价值上下波动。也许大多数时间市场是混乱的，但是超买和超卖情况带来了交易机会。市场在高兴和绝望之间波动，我们则可以在情绪变化中赚钱。
Channels are technical tools that help us take advantage of market swings。 We draw them parallel to the moving average in the intermediate timeframe； usually daily。 A well…drawn channel contains approximately 95％ of recent prices。 Its upper line represents the manic and the lower line the depressive moods of the market。
通道是技术工具，能帮助我们在市场波动方面占优势。在中周期，通常是日线图，平行于均线画通道。画的好的通道能包含95％的价格。上线代表疯狂，下线代表绝望。
If we buy value near a rising moving average； we can sell mania in the vicinity of the upper channel line。 If we go short near a falling moving average； we can cover at the depressed level near the lower channel line。 Channels provide attractive targets for profit taking。
如果我们在均线附近买入，就是买价值，我们可以在通道上线卖出。如果我们在均线附近做空，我们可以在通道下线附近回补。通道提供了吸引人的利润目标。
People say that a neurotic is a person who builds castles in the clouds； a psychotic lives in them； and a psychiatrist is the fellow who collects the rent。 Channels help us collect rent from what drives most investors crazy … the relentless swings of the markets。 The idea is to buy normalcy and sell mania or go short normalcy and cover depression。
人们说，有神经质的人喜欢建造空中楼阁，神经病住在里面，神经病医生收房租。通道帮助我们在大部分投资者疯狂的时候收房租——市场无情的波动。也就是，平静时买入，疯狂时卖出；或者是平静时做空，绝望时回补。
Straight channels or envelopes work better for profit taking than standard deviation channels； or Bollinger bands。 Those bands grow wide when volatility rises and narrow when it declines。 They help options traders； who depend heavily on volatility； but those of us who trade stocks or futures are better off with straight channels。
通道或包络线，在兑现利润方面比标准背离通道或布林通道好。当波动激烈时，通道变宽；当波动不激烈时，通道变窄。它们对期权交易者有帮助，期权波动大。但是我们交易股票和期货，最好还是用通道。
Channels are for traders； not investors。 If you want to invest in a 10 stock and ride it to 50； channels are not for you。 Exits from investments or very long…term trades are based on the fundamentals or such long…term technical signals as the reversals of a 26…week moving average。 Envelopes or channels work best when you trade relatively short…term swings between undervalued and overvalued levels。
通道是交易者用的，不是投资者用的。如果你想投资10元的股票，等它涨到50元，通道对你没用。投资者出场点建立在长期的基本面分析之上，或者是类似于26周均线技术信号之上。对于短线交易，在价值上下的波动，包络线或通道是最好的。
If you buy near a rising EMA； place a sell order where you expect the upper channel line to be tomorrow。 If the upper channel line has been rising a half a point a day for the past few days and closed at 88 today； then you can place a sell order at 88。50 for tomorrow。 Adjust this number every day as the channel moves higher or lower。
如果你在上涨的均线附近买入，在通道上线下单卖出。�
