走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第53章
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ry day as the channel moves higher or lower。
如果你在上涨的均线附近买入，在通道上线下单卖出。如果在过去几天，通道上线每天上涨0。5点，今天收盘在88，那么你可以下单卖出，价格是88。50。当通道每天越来越高或低时，你要每天调整这个数字。
Whenever I teach a group how to use channels for profit taking； someone raises a hand and points to an area where prices overshot their channel。 Taking profits at that channel line would have caused us to miss a large part of a rally。 What can I say？ This system is good but not perfect。 No method； except for hindsight； nails down all tops and bottoms。 Robert Prechter； who used to be a famous market analyst； put it well when he said； “Traders take a good system and destroy it by trying to make it into a perfect system。”
不管什么时候，当我给学生讲课，谈到利用通道兑现利润时，总有学生举手，指出价格戳破通道的地方，说明利用通道线兑现利润会让我们错过一个大波动。我能说什么？这个系统是好的，但不是完美的。除了事后诸葛亮，没有任何办法可以抓住所有的顶部和底部。罗伯特·普莱切特过去是非常著名的分析师，他说的很好：“交易者得到了一个好的系统，但是他把它破坏了，因为他要把它变成完美的系统。”
If a trend is very strong； you may want to ride swings a little farther。 Sell half of your position when prices hit the upper channel line； but use your judgment to dance out of the second half。 You may monitor intraday prices and sell on the first day when they do not make a new high。 Use your judgment and skills； but do yourself a favor … give up the idea of nailing tops。 Greed is a very expensive emotion。
如果趋势很强，你想多跟一段。当价格碰到通道上线时，可以卖掉一半的仓位，但是你要自己处理剩下来的一半仓位。你可以在价格不再创造新高时，参考前一天的高点卖出。你自己分析判断，但是别忘了——放弃移动止损的想法。贪婪是昂贵的情绪。
If a rally is weak； prices may begin to sink without reaching their upper channel line。 There is no law that says the market must bee manic before returning to value。 Force Index can help measure the strength of a rally。 When the two…day Force Index rises to a new high； it confirms the power of bulls and encourages you to hold until prices hit the upper channel line。 If the two…day Force Index traces a bearish divergence； it shows that the rally is weak and you better grab profits fast。
如果上涨很弱，价格可能不到通道上线就回落了。没有人规定价格一定要先疯狂再回到价值。力量指数可以帮助计算上涨的力量。当2日力量指数上涨到新高，它确认了多头力量，鼓励你继续持有，直到价格碰到通道上线。如果2日力量指数跟踪到看跌背离，它表明上涨很弱，你最好快点兑现利润。
An A trader is someone who takes 30％ or more out of a channel。 That is a little more than half the distance from the moving average to the channel line。 Even if you buy slightly above the moving average and sell below its upper channel line； you can be an A trader and profit handsomely。 Channels help catch normal tops and bottoms； and you can bee very rich by steadily raking in normal profits。 Channels help set up realistic profit targets。
A水平的交易者能赚到通道的30％。这比均线到通道线一半的距离要多。即使你在均线上面一点点买入，在通道上线下面卖出，你也能成为A水平的交易者，赚到很多钱。通道有助于抓住顶部和底部，通过不断地赚钱，你也可以很富有。通道能帮助设置现实的利润目标。
Protective Stops
保护性止损
Amateurs swing between fantasy and reality； making most decisions in the realm of fantasy。 They dream of profits and avoid unpleasant thoughts about possible losses。 Since stops force us to focus on losses； most traders resist using them。
业余选手在幻想和现实之间游荡，大多数决定都是幻想的。他们幻想利润，却不考虑潜在的亏损。止损可以强制我们关注亏损，大多数交易者拒绝使用止损。
A friend told me she needed no stops because she was an investor。 “At what price did you buy that stock？” I asked。 She had gotten in at 80 and now it was at 85。 “Would you still hold it if it fell back to 80？” She said she would。 “What about 75？” She said she would probably buy more。 “What about 70？” She winced。 “What about 55？ Would you still want to own it？” No； no； she vigorously shook her head。 “Well； then you need a stop somewhere above 55！”
有个朋友告诉我，她不需要止损，因为她是投资者。我问她：“你在什么价格买的股票？”她80买的，现在是85。“你会继续持有，等它回到80吗？”她说她会。“如果跌到75呢？”她说她会多买点。“如果跌到70呢？”她退缩了。“如果跌到55，你还会持有吗？”不，不，她用力摇头。“如此说来，你的止损点在55之上的某点！”
I recently had dinner with a lawyer who obtained inside information that a certain penny…stock pany was about to announce a strategic partnership with a tele giant。 Questions of legality and morality aside； he put most of his money into that stock at an average price of 16。5 cents a share。 Once the announcement came out； his stock ran up to 8； but by the time he told me his secret over a tray of sushi； it was down to 1。50。 He had no stop。 I asked him whether he would continue to hold if his stock slid to 8 cents； half of what he paid。 He was shocked and promised to put in a stop at 1。 Did he do it？ Probably not。 It is easier to dream and close one’s eyes to reality。
前不久我和一个律师吃晚饭，他有内幕消息，说一个股价很低的公司要和电信巨头结成战略伙伴。我们先不谈合法性和道德问题，他用所有的钱在16。5分／股买入。消息公布时，他的股票涨到了8元，当他在寿司店告诉我这个秘密时，股价跌到了1。5元。他没有止损。我问他，如果股票继续跌到8分，他会继续持有吗。他很震惊，他说保证会在1元止损。他真的做了吗？可能没有。做梦是很容易的，面对现实闭上眼睛也是很容易。
You must put in a stop immediately after entering a trade and start moving it in the direction of that trade as soon as it starts moving in your favor。 Stops are a one…way street。 When long； you may raise； but never lower them。 When short； you may lower but never raise them。 Only losers say； “I’ll give this trade a little more room。” You already gave it all the room it needed when you placed your stop！ If a stock starts moving against you； leave your stop alone！ You were more rational at the time you placed it than you are today； with prices hovering and threatening to hit it。
你必须在进场后立刻下止损单，当市场对你有利时，要移动止损。止损是单行线。当做多的时候，你可以向上移，但永远不要向下移。当做空的时候，你可以向下移，但永远不要向上移。只有输家会说：“我多留点余地。”当你下单的时候，你已经留了余地！如果股票对你不利，就不要动止损单！当初你下止损单的时候肯定比现在理性，此时价格会威胁你，要碰到止损。
Investors must reevaluate their stops once every few weeks； but traders have a harder job。 We must recalculate our stops every day and move them often。
投资者必须每几周重新计算一下他们的止损，但是交易者更辛苦。我们必须天天重新计算止损，天天移动止损。
A Deadly Delusion Many traders think they can stay out of trouble without using stops； thanks to their superior market analysis。 Trading is a high…wire act。 You may walk that wire a hundred times without a safety net； but the very first fall can cripple you。 You cannot afford to take that chance。 No amount of brains will help you if you abandon stops。
致命的幻想 很多交易者认为，不下止损单也能避免麻烦，感谢他们的超级市场分析。交易是高空表演。你可以不需要安全网，成功地表现几百次，但第一次跌落就能废了你。你输不起的。如果你不止损，没有人会帮助你。
Several years ago I got a call from a world…famous developer of trading software。 He invited me on a camping trip； and mentioned in passing that he had developed a fantastic system for trading futures。 It was based on puterized pattern recognition； backtested on 20 years of data with breathtaking results。 He had no money to trade that system； having lost his capital on an earlier venture； but showed his discovery to a group of money managers。 They were so impressed they began to set up a hedge fund for him； and in the meantime gave him what they called a small account … 100；000。
几年前，一个著名的交易软件开发商打电话给我。他邀请我参加一个露营，他说他发明了奇妙的系统，可以交易期货。它利用电脑识别模式，测试了20年的数据，结果惊人。以前他把钱亏光了，没有钱使用他的系统，他把他的发明给很多基金经理看了。基金经理们很吃惊，为他建立了对冲基金，同时他们给了他一小笔钱——100000元。
I flew across the country and spent the first evening admiring my friend’s system。 “Are you trading anything now？” The system had given him six signals： in soybeans； Swiss francs； pork bellies； and three other markets。 He had entered trades in all six。 “How much did you allocate to each？” He had divided his account into six parts； one for each market。 No reserves。 Fully margined。 “Where did you put your stops？” He told me in so many words that real men didn’t use stops。
我坐飞机横穿美国，第一天晚上整晚都在研究他的系统。“你在交易什么商品吗？”系统给他6个信号：大豆，瑞士法郎，猪肉，以及其它3个商品。6个商品他都交易了。“你是如何分配资金的？”他把资金分成了6部分，1部分交易1个商品，没有剩下来的钱，也就是把保证金全部用上了。“你的止损点在哪里？”他对我说了很多话，他说真正的人都不用止损。
He had mathematical proof that stops lowered profitability。 Safety lay in trading unrelated markets。 If one or two went against him； others would move in his favor。 “What about a catastrophic event； with all markets moving against you？” He assured me that was impossible because he traded unrelated markets； and there was no correlation between Swiss francs and pork bellies。 Furthermore； his system had not a single wipeout in 20 years of backtesting。
他用数据证明了止损影响收益率。在不相关的市场交易就是安全的。如果有1，2市场不利，其它市场会弥补的。“如果发生了灾难性事件，所有市场都不利，怎么办？”他安慰我说，已经用不相关的市场测试了，不会发生这样的事。瑞士法郎和猪肉之间也没什么关系。另外，他的系统测试了20年的数据，没有被洗出局的历史。
I suggested we forget about camping and stay closer to the screen； since his entire capital was at risk。 My friend insisted he had total confidence in his system； and so we drove to the Sierra Nevada； some of the most breathtaking scenery in America。 We had a grand time； and on the last day my son； who was about 8 at the time； hauled in a plastic pail full of gold nuggets。 It was fool’s gold； of course； but to this day I keep one of them on my desk as a paperweight； engraved “All that glitters is gold。”
我建议说，不要搞露营了，还是先盯紧屏幕吧，因为资金有危险。这位朋友坚持说他对系统有充足的信心，所以我们开车到内华达山，是美国最出名的风景区。我们有大把时间，最后一天，我8岁的儿子拖进来一桶金块。当然不是真金，至今我还把其中一块作为我的压书物，上面刻着：“只要是发光的就是金子”。
By the time we returned to civilization the impossible had happened。 All six markets went against my friend； nearly wiping out his equity。 The next morning we watched in horror as the markets opened one after another； continuing to go against him in huge gobs。 I talked him into closing two out of six positions； but then it was time to drive to the airport。
当我们回到现实中，不可能的事发生了。6个市场都是不利的，几乎把资金亏光了。第二天早上，几个市场相继开盘，继续大亏，我们吓坏了。我叫他把2个仓位平仓，但当时我要开车去机场。
A few days later I called to thank my friend for the trip。 His account was wiped out； and he bitterly plained that his money men weren’t gentlemen； they weren’t returning his phone calls。 I resisted the temptation to say that if he lost 100；000 for me； I would not return his phone calls either。
几天后，我打电话给他，感谢他的邀请。他的账户被洗光了，他抱怨提供资金的人不近人情，他们都不回他的电话。我忍着没说，如果他把我的100000也亏了，我也不会回电�
