走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第65章
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
突ǔ闪搜獭Ｗ式鸸芾砜梢源砗闷诨踅灰椎拇砦笾ΑＶ灰闶褂煤米式鸸芾碓颍焕挠酶吒芨耍诨跏呛芎媒灰椎摹Ｄ阋浅Ｓ屑吐伞灰灼诨酰惚匦氡缺浠挂淇帷Ｈ绻悴荒茏袷刈式鸸芾碓颍故侨ダ刮铀拱伞＜热唤峁谎刮铀沟挠槔旨壑蹈撸弦彩敲夥训模∧诘谋硌菀埠莒拍俊�
Precisely because they require a high degree of discipline and excellent money management skills； futures markets are hard for beginners。 A new trader is better off learning to trade slower…moving stocks； but later on； futures definitely deserve a look。
因为需要极高的纪律性和优秀的资金管理技巧，期货市场对新手来说就很难。新手最好还是交易运动缓慢的股票，但是到了以后，期货绝对值得你去看看。
If you know how to trade and want to make a quick fortune； futures are the place to be。 You may put on small initial positions； fenced in by strict money management rules； but then you can pyramid them to the hilt as a trade moves in your favor and you keep moving stops beyond breakeven and adding new contracts。
如果你知道如何交易，想赚快钱，期货是个好地方。你可以建很小的仓位，用严格的资金管理原则保护它，如果市场对你有利，你可以金字塔加仓，你可以在赚钱的前提下移动止损。
There are only a few dozen futures； making the choice of which to trade much easier than among the thousands of stocks。 Be sure to focus on markets in your own time zone。 It is shocking how many beginners； especially outside the United States； want to trade currencies。 Few of them stop to think that this is a 24…hour market； operating around the clock； in which an individual trader has many disadvantages。 You may brilliantly analyze a currency and forecast a move； but that move is just as likely to take place in another time zone while you are sleeping。 Try to select markets that trade in your time zone that are open when you are awake and closed when you’re asleep。
市场只有几十个期货市场，与几千只股票相比，比较好选。记住要选你所在时区的市场。很多新手，尤其是美国以外的，想交易外汇，这是很吃惊的。他们很少想到这是24小时的市场，个人交易者的劣势太多了。你也许成功地分析了外汇，预测到了波动，当时它在你睡觉的时候发生了。尽力选择你所在时区的市场，你醒着时，它是开盘的，你睡着时，它是收盘的。
It is a good idea to make your first steps in those markets where you know something about the fundamentals。 If you are a cattle rancher； a house builder； or a loan officer； then cattle； lumber； or interest rate futures are logical starting points； if you can afford to trade them。 If you have no particular interests； your choice is limited only by your account size。 It is important to make your first steps in relatively inexpensive markets。 All markets have a certain amount of random noise； or quick countertrend moves。 The high dollar value of random moves in expensive markets can be deadly。
最好是一开始交易你比较了解基本面的市场。如果你是养牛的，建房子的，放贷款的，那么牛，木材，利率期货就是合理的下手点。如果你没什么特殊的爱好，那么你就选择你所在时区的市场。最好一开始做便宜的市场。每个市场都有随机噪音，或快速回调。昂贵市场高价的随即波动可能是致命的。
Take yourself through a simple exercise。 Create a spreadsheet on your puter and write down the names of several futures markets that interest you in column A。 Write the value of their price units in column B。 Corn trades in cents； and the value of a cent is 50； S&P trades in points； and the value of a point is 250； so those values go into column B。 Write the latest closing price in column C。 Now plete the exercise by creating column D which multiplies B by C and shows how much each contract is worth。 How much more expensive is the richest contract pared to the cheapest contract？ Five times？ Ten？ Twenty？ Thirty？ Do the exercise and find out。
你要简单练习一下。在你的电脑上做一个电子表格，在A栏记下几个你喜欢的期货名字。在B栏写下他们的单价。玉米的价格用分表示，1分代表50元。标准普尔股指期货用点表示，1点是250元，B栏就这样表示价值。在C栏写下最近的收盘价。最后在D栏计算B栏和C栏的相乘的结果，看看一份合约价值多少。最贵的合约比最便宜的合约贵多少？5倍？10倍？20倍？30倍？自己做练习以找到答案。
Beginners are drawn to the S&P 500 futures； but few have accounts large enough for proper money management in this expensive market。 In North America； corn； sugar； and； in a slow year； copper are good markets for beginners； allowing you to learn in your own time zone。 They are liquid； reasonably volatile； and not too expensive。
新手喜欢做标注普尔500股指期货，但是在这个昂贵的市场，很少人的账户有足够的资金做好资金管理。在北美，玉米，白糖，铜都适合新手，方便你在自己的时区学习。它们流动性好，波动合理，也不贵。
Some very good books； listed on page ； have been written about futures。 Most technical analysis tools were originally developed for futures and only later migrated to the stock market。 Let us review a few aspects of futures that make them different from stocks。
一些好书，都谈了期货。很多技术分析工具本来是为期货发明的，后来才移植到股票。让我们来看看一些期货和股票不同的方面。
CONTANGO AND INVERSION All futures markets offer contracts for several delivery months at the same time。 For example； you can buy or sell wheat for delivery in September or December of this year； March of next year； and so on。 Normally； the nearby months are less expensive than the faraway months； and that relationship is called a contango market。
溢价和反转 所有的期货市场都提供不同交割期的合约。比如，你可以买卖9月交割的小麦，或买卖今年12月交割，明年3月交割的小麦，等等。通常，近期合约比远期合约便宜，这个关系叫溢价市场。
Higher prices for longer…term contracts reflect the so…called cost of carry； that is； the cost of financing； storing； and insuring a modity。 A futures buyer plunks down his 3％ margin and controls a contract without having to bring the rest of the money until the settlement date。 Meanwhile the seller has to store； finance； and insure the merchandise。
长期合约的价格高，反映了运输成本，也就是商品的财务成本，仓储成本和保险成本。期货买家用3％的保证金控制了合约，在交割期之前并不需要交其它的费用。同时，卖家需要支付仓储，财务，保险等费用。
The differences between delivery months are called premiums。 Hedgers and floor traders closely watch premiums because they reflect the degree of tightness in the market。 When the supply shrinks or the demand rises； people start paying up for the nearby months。 The premium for the faraway months begins to shrink。 As the demand grows； the front months bee pricier than faraway months … the market bees inverted！ This is one of the strongest fundamental signs of a bull market。 There is a real shortage out there； and people are paying extra to get their stuff sooner rather than later。
交割月之间的不同叫溢价。对冲者和场内交易者都关注溢价，因为它们反映了市场的紧张程度。当供应减少，需求上涨时，人们开始加钱买近期合约。远期的溢价开始下跌。当需求上涨，近期合约比远期合约贵——市场反转了！这是上涨市场基本面的强烈信号。有真实的库存在那里，人们愿意花高价快点得到它，而不是慢点得到。
Whenever you look at the modity page of a financial newspaper； move your finger down the column of closing prices and look for inversions。 They signal bull markets； and that’s when you want to use technical analysis to look for buying opportunities。
无论何时你看财经报纸上的商品期货，顺着收盘价那栏往下看，以寻找反转。他们是上涨的信号，你想用技术分析找买点的方法就是这个方法。
Serious hedgers do not wait for inversions。 They monitor premiums and get their signals from their narrowing or widening。 A good speculator can rattle off the latest prices； but a good hedger will quote you the latest premiums of faraway contracts over the nearby ones。
认真的对冲者不会等反转。它们通过溢价的高低变化来找到信号。优秀的投机者能背出市场的最新价，但是优秀的对冲者能背出最新的远期合约比近期合约溢价多少。
As you scan futures markets for inversions； keep in mind that there is one area in which inversion is the norm。 Interest rate futures are always inverted because those who hold cash positions keep collecting interest instead of paying finance and storage charges。
当你扫描期货市场找反转时，记住，在有些地方出现反转是正常的。利率期货经常反转，因为持有现金的人总是收利息，他不用支付财务和仓储费用。
SPREADS Hedgers tend to dominate the short side of the markets and most speculators are perpetual bulls； but floor traders love to trade spreads。 Spreading means buying one delivery month and selling another in the same market； or going long one market and short a related one。
价差 对冲者一般控制空头市场，大部分投机者则推动上涨，但场内交易者喜欢交易价差。价差意味着买入一个交割月，卖出另外一个；或者是在一个市场做多，在另外一个相关市场做空。
Futures are the basic building blocks of the economy； essential for society’s daily functioning。 Economic necessities tightly link modity markets and delivery months。 If the price of corn； a major animal feed； starts to rise faster than the price of wheat； at some point ranchers will start using wheat rather than corn。 They’ll reduce their purchases of corn while buying more wheat； pushing their spread back towards the norm。 A savvy modity trader knows his normal spreads by heart。 Spread traders bet against deviations and for a return to normalcy。 In this situation； a spreader will short corn and buy wheat； instead of taking a directional trade in either market。
期货是经济的基石，对社会每天的运转很重要。经济紧密地把商品市场和交割月联系起来。玉米是主要的动物食物，如果玉米开始涨的比小麦快，到了一定地步，农场主只要改喂小麦，而不是玉米。他们降低对玉米的购买，开始买更多的小麦，把它们的价差推回正常状态。聪明的商品交易者在心里就知道正常的价差是多少。价差交易者就是赌不正常的价差，让它回到正常。这样的话，价差交易者就会做空玉米，并做多小麦，而不是参与这2个市场的方向交易。
Spread trades are much safer than directional trades； with even lower margin requirements。 Amateurs do not understand spreads and have little interest in these reliable but slow…moving trades。 There are several books on spreads but not a single good one at the time of this writing； a sign of how well professionals have sewn up this area of knowledge and kept the amateurs out。 There is a handful of niches in the markets where professionals are making fortunes without the benefit of a single good how…to book。 It looks almost as if the insiders have posted a sign for the outsiders to keep out。
价差交易比方向交易安全多了，需要的保证金也低。业余选手不懂价差，对这种可靠但比较慢的交易没兴趣。市场上有很多关于价差的书，但是都写的不好，这说明专业人士在这个领域很封闭，把业余选手都赶出去了。这个市场的好处很多，所以专业人士赚了很多钱，完全没有必要靠写书赚钱。这看起来好像是内部人士贴了一个告示，外人莫入。
MITMENTS OF TRADERS The modity Futures Trading mission collects reports from brokers on the positions of traders and releases their summaries to the public。 Those COT （mitments of traders） reports are among the best sources of information on what the smart money is doing in the futures markets。 COT reports reveal positions of three groups： hedgers； big traders； and small traders。 How do they know who is who？ Hedgers identify themselves to brokers because that entitles them to several advantages； such as lower margin rates。 Big traders are identified by holding the number of contracts above “reporting requirements；” set by the government。 Whoever is not a hedger or a big trader is a small trader。
持仓量 期货交易委员会会从经纪商那里得到报告，内容是交易者的仓位，然后公布给大众。持仓量报告是最好的信息，它告诉我们聪明的钱在哪里。持仓量报告显示了3个人群的仓
