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第7章

走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第7章

小说: 走进我的交易室 中英对照版 字数: 每页3500字

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nd only in special situations; as we will see later in this book。 Options are hopeless for poor people who use them as substitutes for stocks because they can’t afford the real thing。
成功的股票和期货交易者有时利用期权来降低风险或保护利润。认真的交易者很少买期权,只有在特殊情况下才会买,本书后面会谈到。对于穷人来说,买不起股票,就买期权做替代的想法是没有希望的。
Professionals take full advantage of starry…eyed beginners crowding into options。 Their bid…ask spreads are terrible。 If an option is bid 75 cents; offered at a dollar; you are 25% behind the game as soon as you buy。 The expression “your loss is limited to what you paid for an option” means you can lose 100%! What’s so great about losing everything?
当过分乐观的新手抢着买期权时,专业人士会利用这个优势。新手的买入价和卖出价很混乱。如果市场的买入报价是75分,卖出报价是1元,当你买入的时候,你就亏了25%(张轶注:这个和外汇市场一样,某个货币,银行的买入报价是0。9元,卖出报价是1元,这意味着我们只能1元买入,0。9元卖出。也就是说,我们在市场中总是容易吃亏)。有句话说“你的亏损仅仅限于你买期权的钱”,意思就是说你会100%的亏损!输光了很伟大吗?
A client of mine was a market…maker on the floor of the American Stock Exchange。 She came to my classes on technical analysis because she was pregnant and wanted to get off the floor and trade from home。 “Options;” she said; “are a hope business。 You can buy hope or sell hope。 I am a professional … I sell hope。 I e to the floor in the morning and find what the public wants。 Then I price that hope and sell it to them。”
我的一个客户是美国股票交易所的场内做市商。因为她怀孕了,不方便在场内交易,她想在家里交易,她就来上我的技术分析课。她说:“做期权就是做希望的生意。你可以买希望,也可以卖希望。我是专业人士——我卖希望。每天早上,我走进交易所场内,先看看大众想要什么。然后我把希望定个价,就可以卖给大众了。” 
Professionals are more likely to write options than buy them。 Writing is a capital…intensive business。 You need hundreds of thousands of dollars to do it right; and most successful options writers operate with millions。 And even theirs is not a risk…free game。 Several years ago a friend who used to be one of the nation’s top money managers landed on the front page of The Wall Street Journal after he lost 20 years’ worth of profits in a single bad day of writing naked puts。
专业人士大多喜欢发行期权(张轶注:很有趣的赚钱方法,可惜中国只有券商才可以这么做),而不喜欢买期权。发行期权是一种赚钱的生意。只要几百元到几千元就可以操作,有些成功的人操作的资金高达几百万。这不是没有风险的游戏。我的一个朋友曾经是全国最出名的基金经理之一,一天,他发行了一个看跌期权,结果把20年的利润都亏掉了,为此上了《华尔街日报》的封面。
There are two types of option writers。 Covered writers buy a stock and write an option against it。 Naked writers write calls and puts on stocks they don’t own; backing their writes with cash in their accounts。 Writing naked options feels like taking money out of thin air; but a violent move can put you out of business。 Writing options is a serious game; suitable only for disciplined and well…capitalized traders。
有2种发行期权的人。第1种买入股票,再发行期权。第2种人发行的期权针对他自己根本没有的股票,他们利用账户里的资金做保证。发行看跌期权就像是在空气里抓钱,但是一个凶猛的波动就会让你破产。发行期权是一个很严肃的游戏,只有有纪律,资金管理能力强的交易者适合做。
Markets are like pumps that suck money out of the pockets of the poorly informed majority and pump it into the pockets of a savvy minority。 People who service those pumps; such as brokers; vendors; regulators; and even janitors who sweep exchange floors; are paid from the stream of money flowing through the markets。 Since markets take money from the majority; pay help; and give what’s left to the savvy minority; the majority; by definition; must lose。 You can be sure that whatever the majority of traders does; believes; and says; is not worth doing; believing; and saying。 You have to stand apart from the crowd in order to succeed。 Smart traders look for situations where a large majority does something one way; while a small; moneyed minority goes the opposite way。
市场就像一个泵,它把大多数穷人口袋里面的钱泵到少数聪明人的口袋里。为市场服务的人,比如经纪人,商业机构,管理层,甚至包括为交易所扫地的人,他们都可以从市场的资金流中得到工资收入。由于市场从大多数人那里拿钱,给服务市场的人付工资,并把剩下来的钱给少数人,所以大部分人必须亏钱。无论大部分人做什么,信什么,说什么,都是没用的。你要离开大众,才能成功。当大部分人往一个方向走时,聪明的少数人则往相反的方向走。
In options the majority buys calls and; to a lesser degree; puts。 The insiders almost exclusively write options。 Professionals use their heads; while amateurs are driven by greed and fear。 Options take full advantage of those feelings。
在期权方面,大部分人买看涨期权,很少买看跌期权。内行的人则专门发行期权。专业人士利用大脑,而业余选手受贪婪和恐惧的驱动。期权正好利用了贪婪和恐惧。
Greed is the engine of option…selling propaganda。 You must have heard the slogan: “Control a large block of stock with just a few dollars!” An amateur may be bullish on a 60 stock; but doesn’t have 6;000 to buy 100 shares。 He buys some 70 calls with two months of life left in them for 500 each。 If that stock rises to 75; those options will acquire 500 of intrinsic value; while maintaining some time value; and a speculator can double his stake in a month! The amateur buys calls and sits back to watch his money double。
期权宣传的就是贪婪。你一定听过这个口号:“用很少的钱控制大量的股票!”一个业余选手可能会看涨一个60元的股票,但是他没有6000元买100股。他会买70元的看涨期权(张轶注:等于买了100只期权,对应100股股票),希望未来2个月分别涨500元。如果期权涨到75元,期权会增值500元,因为有时间价值,投机者可以在1个月让资金翻番!业余选手可以买看涨期权,并坐等自己的资金翻番。
Strange things begin to happen。 Whenever the stock rises two points; his calls go up only one; but when the stock falls or even pauses; his calls fall briskly。 Instead of seeing his money double in a hurry; the amateur is soon staring at a 50% paper loss; while the clock starts ticking louder and louder。 The expiration date is nearing; and even though the stock is higher than it was when he bought his calls; they are now cheaper; showing a paper loss。 Should he sell and salvage some money or hold and wait for a rally? Even if he knows the right thing to do; he’s not going to do it。 His greed does him in。 He hangs on until his options expire worthless。
很奇怪的事开始发生。不管什么时候,当股票涨2个点时,他的看涨期权只涨1个点,但是当股票下跌或横盘时,他的看涨期权却跌的很快。不但资金没有翻番,业余选手的资金却亏损了50%,时钟越来越响,时间不等人。到期日快接近了,虽然股票的价格比买看涨期权的时候涨了,但是还是便宜,不到行权价,产生了账面亏损。他是卖掉期权,拯救部分资金,还是等它涨呢?即使他知道做正确的事,他也不会去做。他的贪婪控制了他。他要一直等到期权过期,变得一文不值才放弃。
Another great motivator for buying options is fear; especially in options on futures。 A loser takes a few painful hits … his analysis was wet and money management nonexistent。 He sees an attractive trade but fears losing。 He hears the siren song … “unlimited gains with limited risk” … and buys options on futures。 Speculators buy options like poor people buy lottery tickets。 A person who buys a lottery ticket risks 100% of what he paid。 Any situation where you risk 100% looks like an odd case of limited risk。 Limited to 100%!?! Most speculators ignore this ominous figure。
另外一个买期权的动机就是恐惧,尤其是期货期权。输家要接受一些痛苦的提示——他的分析是错的,他没有资金管理。他能看见不错的交易机会,但是他害怕亏损。他听见了美女唱歌:“有限的风险,无限的收益”——然后买期货的期权。投机者买期权和穷人买彩票是一样的。买彩票,资金的风险是100%。100%的风险不是有限的风险。100%的风险?!大部分投机者忽略了这个恐怖的数字。
Option buyers have a dismal track record。 They may make a few dollars on a few trades; but I’ve never seen anyone build equity buying options。 The odds in this game are so bad that after a few trades they are sure to kick in and destroy a buyer。 At the same time; options have a high entertainment value。 They provide a cheap ticket to the game; an inexpensive dream; just like a lottery ticket。
买期权的人交易记录会显得糟糕。有少数交易会赚几元钱,但我从来没见过谁能靠期权赚钱。这个游戏的概率太差了,几次交易就能摧毁一个买家。同时,期权具有很高的娱乐价值。期权就是便宜的门票,让你去买昂贵的梦想,和彩票一样。
You need a minimum of one year of successful trading experience in stocks or futures before touching options。 If you are new to the markets; do not even dream of using options in lieu of stocks。 No matter how small your account; find some stocks and learn to trade them。
至少需要1年的时间,等你交易股票或期货成功了以后,才可以碰期权。如果你是新手,不要考虑利用期权代替股票。不管你的账户多么小,还是要先去找股票,并学习如何交易股票。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE? The all…time bestseller on options; and deservedly so; is Lawrence MacMillan’s Options as a Strategic Investment。 It is a veritable mini…encyclopedia that covers all aspects of options trading; better than his other book。
能告诉我如何开始吗?劳伦斯·麦克米伦写的《选择权投资策略》(张轶注:台湾译名)是期权方面的畅销书。这是真正的期权迷你百科全书,涵盖了期权交易的每个方面。作者的所有书里面这本是最好的。
CHAPTER THREE THE FIRST STEPS
第03章 第一步
Trading lures us with its promise of freedom。 If you know how to trade; you can live and work anywhere in the world; be independent from the routine; and not answer to anybody。 Trading attracts people of above…average intelligence who enjoy games and aren’t afraid of risks。 Before you rush into this exciting venture; keep in mind that in addition to your enthusiasm you will need to bring a sober understanding of the realities of trading。
交易可以帮助实现自由,所以它吸引了我们。如果你知道如何交易,你可以在全世界任何地方生活和工作,没有例行工作,不必理任何人。交易吸引了比较聪明的人,他们喜欢这个游戏,不怕风险。在你冒险之前,你要明白,除了激情,你还要透彻理解交易的现实。
Trading will stress your feelings。 To survive and succeed; you will need to develop a sound trading psychology。
交易会让你沮丧。如果要生存,要成功,你需要形成有效的交易心理。
Trading will challenge your mind。 To gain an edge in the markets; you will need to master good analytic methods。
交易会改变你的思想。要想在市场中获得优势,你需要掌握优秀的分析方法。
Trading will demand good mathematical skills。 A math illiterate who can’t manage risks is guaranteed to bust out。
交易需要优秀的数学能力。一个数学盲如果不能管理好风险,肯定会被踢出局。
Trading psychology; technical analysis; money management … if you learn all three; you can make it in trading。 But first; let us look at the external obstacles to your success。
交易心理、技术分析和资金管理——如果你都学会了,你就会成功。但是,让我们先看看成功的外部障碍。
The markets are set up to separate the maximum number of people from their money。 Stealing is not permitted; but markets are heavily slanted in favor of insiders and against outsiders。 Let us explore the barriers that prevent many traders from succeeding and try to lower them。
设置交易市场的目的就是掠夺大多数人的钱。偷是违法的,但是市场会帮助懂的人,并陷害不懂的人。让我们来寻找这些妨碍成功的路障,并尽量排除它们。
THE EXTERNAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS
成功的外部障碍
An investor can start with practically nothing; buying a few thousand d

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