走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第73章
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A new trader came to see me recently； a 42…year…old businessman tired of the rat race。 His wife continued to run their business； while he put all his time and energy into the market。 He kept bobbing around breakeven； trading anywhere from 100 to 1；000 shares at a clip。 Often； he’d make money on several trades in a row trading small lots and then give back everything on a single large trade。
最近有个新手来找我，他是42岁的生意人，他厌倦了老鼠赛跑。他的妻子帮他照顾生意，他自己全心全意做投资。他对自己的资金原地不动而痛苦，一般他会交易100——1000股。通常，他都下小单，也赢了几次，然后一次大的亏损就把利润还给市场了。
I told him he was ahead of the game because； unlike most beginners； he hadn’t lost money。 I then gave him the standard prescription … begin by trading 100 shares； the smallest round lot； until you have a profitable period during which you have more winners than losers and are profitable overall。 That period should be two weeks for a day…trader or two months for a longer…term swing trader。 Once you have had a profitable period； bump up your size by 100 shares and start trading 200。 After another profitable period； go up another 100 shares and start trading 300。 If you have a losing half…period （a week for a day…trader； a month for a swing trader）； go back down to your previous trade size and start counting again。 If you trade futures； substitute one contract for 100 shares。 Advance slowly； retreat fast。
我告诉他，他的表现已经是非常不错了，大部分新手都是亏损的，他却没有亏损。然后我给他开了一个标准药方——一开始交易最少的手数，100股，如果能做到赚钱比亏钱多，而且总体是赢利的，开始阶段就算结束了。对于日内交易者来说，这个阶段是2周；对于长线交易者来说是2个月。如果能做到赢利了，把你的交易额从100股提高到200股。如果这个阶段也能赚钱了，把200股提高到300股。如果你在某个阶段（日内交易者是1周，长线交易者是1个月）亏损了，回到上一个阶段，重新开始。如果你交易的是期货，用1份合约代替100股。慢慢地进步，亏损时撤退要快。
In his ground…breaking book Portfolio Management Formulas； Ralph Vince introduced the concept of the optimal f … the optimal fraction of your account to risk in any given trade for maximum long…term gains。 His book is mathematically demanding； but it boils down to a few key concepts： there is an optimal f for every trade； if you bet less； your risk decreases arithmetically while profit decreases geometrically； if you keep betting more than the optimal f； you are guaranteed to go broke。 The optimal f keeps shifting with every trade and is hard to calculate。 It provides the highest returns in the long run； but it also leads to vicious drawdowns that may exceed 90％ of the account。 Who has the fortitude to continue trading a system that has brought his account down from 100；000 to 9；000？ The main value of the optimal f is simply to remind us that if we trade a size that’s too large； we’ll destroy our account。 The optimal f marks the zone beyond which you walk into a minefield。 Stay away from it； trade less than the optimal f。
拉夫·文森在他的伟大著作《图解资金公式》里，作者介绍了最完美的f——也就是最完美的那部分账户资金，用它去赢取最大的收益。他的书用了很多数学计算，但最终总结为以下几点：每笔交易都有完美的f；如果你赌的少，风险是数字式的减少而利润是几何级的减少；如果你投入的比最完美的f多，你肯定会破产。最完美的f随着交易不同而不同，很难计算。它能带来长期的高额回报，也会给投入资金超过账户90％的人造成损失。谁愿意使用一个把自己账户从100000变成9000的系统呢？最完美的f告诉我们一个道理，如果我们的仓位太大，我们就会毁了自己的账户。最完美的f是一个地标，你再多走一步就进入了雷区。要远离地雷，在最完美的f之内交易。
Beginners who count profits put their cart before the horse。 Reverse that approach and begin by counting risks。 Ask yourself what your maximum permitted risk is if you follow the 2％ and 6％ Rules。
新手的思维很像用车拉马，不是马拉车。应该反过来思考，先思考风险。问问你自己，如果你愿意接受2％原则和6％原则，你最大的风险是多少？
These are the steps of proper money management：
以下是合理资金管理的步骤：
Measure your account value on the first of the month … the total of cash； cash equivalents； and open positions。
月初计算你的账户资金——你的总现金，保证金和仓位。
Calculate 2％ of your equity。 This is the maximum you may risk on any given trade。
计算总资金的2％。这是你每次交易的最大损失。
Calculate 6％ of your equity。 This is the maximum you are permitted to lose in any given month； after which you must close out all trades and stop trading for the rest of that month。
计算总资金的6％。这是你每月可以损失的最大值。如果损失超过了6％，你要清空所有的仓位，当月不再交易。
For every trade； decide on your entry point and a stop； express your risk per share or per contract in dollars。
对于每笔交易，计算好进场点和止损点。用金额说明你每笔或者每分合约的风险数字。
Divide 2％ of your equity by your risk per share to find how many shares or contracts you may trade。 To get a round number； round it down。
把2％的预计亏损分摊到股票或者期货合约上，看样可以买多少股或者多少份。四舍，不能五入。
Calculate your risk on all open positions by multiplying the distance from the entry point to the current stop by the number of shares or contracts。 If the total risk is 4％ of your account or less； you may add another position； since you’ll be adding 2％ with your current trade； bringing the total to 6％。 Remember； you do not have to risk 2％ per trade； you may risk less if you like。
把所要买的股票股数和期货合约份数算好，算出从进场点到止损点的价差，把2个数字相乘，得到一个总数。如果总数算出来的风险是4％或者更少，你要加点仓，总风险做到6％。记住，你不必每笔交易风险控制在2％，如果你喜欢，数字可以更小。
Put on a trade only after meeting all of the above conditions。
当满足以上所有条件时，开始交易。
Establish the size of your trades on the basis of how much money you can afford to risk； not how much you want to make。 Follow the 2％ and the 6％ Rules。 If you are having a good month； with most trades going your way； you will move your stops beyond breakeven and will be allowed to put on more positions。 You may even go on margin。 The beauty of this money management system is that it clips your losses when you are cold and lets you go forward at full throttle when you’re hot。
交易仓位大小是根据你要亏的钱来计算的，不要根据你要赚的钱计算的。遵守2％原则和6％原则。如果某个月你的运气特别好，所有交易都是赢利的，你可以把止损点设置在保本之上，还可以加仓。你甚至可以利用资金杠杆。资金管理的美妙之处就是，当你亏的时候亏得少，赚的时候能开足马力。
On the first of the month； if you have no open positions； the 2％ and 6％ levels are easy to calculate。 If you approach the first of the month with some open positions； calculate your account equity … the value of all open trades at the latest market price plus all cash or money market funds。 Calculate the 2％ and 6％ levels on the basis of that number。
月初时，如果你没有仓位，2％和6％的数字好计算。如果你已经有了仓位，计算你的账户资金时——要把所有仓位的市值加上所有的现金和未用的保证金。根据这个来计算2％和6％的可能亏损值。
If you have moved stops beyond breakeven in open trades； you have no capital at risk and may look for new trades。 If your stops are not yet at breakeven； find the percentage of your equity you have exposed to risk and count it against the 6％。 Once you deduct that number from 6％； the result will let you know whether you may put on new trades。 How should you apply the 2％ and 6％ Rules if you trade futures； stocks； and options all at the same time？ First of all； a beginner should concentrate on a single market。 Diversify only after you succeed。 If you are trading more than one market； open separate accounts and treat each as a separate trading enterprise。 For example； if you have 60；000 in stocks and 40；000 in futures； calculate the 2％ and 6％ Rules for the 60；000 and apply them to stocks； and then calculate the 2％ and 6％ Rules for the 40；000 and apply them to futures。 If you have more than one account； allocate trading…related expenses in proportion to their sizes。 Remember； both your trading system and your money management must be good in order to win in the markets。
如果你的仓位已经赢利，而且你在赢利之上设置了止损点，那么你的资金是没有风险的，你可以寻找你的新交易。如果你的仓位止损点不能保证赢利，你要重新计算好风险，数字是6％。一旦你计算好了6％的数字，你就知道要建立多少新仓位。如果你同时交易期货，股票和期权，该如何应用2％原则和6％原则呢？首先，新手要聚焦在一个市场，成功以后再关注多个市场。如果你同时在几个市场交易，开不同的账户，每个账户相对独立。举例说，如果你有60000元投资于股票，40000元投资于期货。为60000元的股票计算一次2％和6％；再为40000元的期货计算一次2％和6％。如果你的账户不止一个，根据仓位合理分配费用。记住，要想在市场取胜，交易系统和资金管理都要优秀才行。
PART THREE
第3部分
Traders go through several stages of development。 Many beginners view trading as a mechanical pursuit。 They think that if only they could find the right parameters for the Stochastic or the proper length for a moving average； success would be theirs。 They bee easy prey for gurus selling mechanical systems。
交易者会经历多个阶段。很多新手以为交易是很机械的。他们以为只要为软件找个合理的参数，或者设置一个正确的均线，就可以成功了。他们很容易成为卖交易软件老师的猎物。
Survivors realize that psychological factors； such as optimism or doubt； greed or the fear of pulling the trigger are much more important than any technical indicator。 They start developing a feel for the importance of risk control。 I keep running into folks at conferences who have a good grip on technical analysis and some understanding of psychology； but who know that something is missing because they cannot win consistently and must keep their day jobs。 What should they do next？
幸存者心里明白，心理因素，包括乐观和怀疑的较量，贪婪和恐惧的较量，都比技术指标要重要。他们开始研究控制风险。我在一次会议上遇到几个人，他们的技术分析不错，也懂心理学，但是他们觉得因为白天要上班，无法做到持续赢利，好像缺了什么似的。他们该怎么办？
Once you have a decent understanding of technical analysis； follow money management rules； and know the value of trading psychology； you need to develop new organizational skills。 You already possess the building blocks of success … now is the time to erect the structure of successful trading。
一旦你对技术分析有了深入了解，遵守资金管理的原则，并知道交易心理学，你还要发展新的组织技巧。成功的砖块你已经准备好了——现在要建立成功的交易。
There is no magic trick for converting a serious amateur into a professional trader。 What I offer you here is a recipe for intense and focused work which will enable you to move up to the ultimate stage of professional trading。
没有任何魔术可以把业余选手变成专业交易者。现在我提供的是让你成为专业交易者的工作方法。
CHAPTER EIGHT THE ORGANIZED TRADER
第8章 有条理的交易者
What is the single most important trait of a successful trader？ High intelligence？ Not really； even though some basic level of performance is required。 Good education？ Not quite； since many of the best traders haven’t gone past high school。 The trait that all winners have in mon is a very high level of discipline。 How can you measure your level and then increase it？ You do it by maintaining and learning from several sets of trading records。
成功交易者最重要的特点是什么？高智商？不是，虽然确实需要高水准的表现。良好的教育？也不是，很多优秀的交易者中学都没
