走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第81章
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善薄投滔呓灰渍卟煌滔呓灰渍咦隹眨压善甭舾３て诙裕�2个人都会成功，场内交易者知道多头会持有仓位，他观察30分钟图，会在收盘前平仓他的空头仓位，虽然很小，但有利润。
A trading plan reflects your interests in specific markets and techniques； your experience； and the size of your account。 It reflects your personality as well as the behavior of your markets。 If two friends with equal capital and similar experience traded the same market and wrote down their plans； they would e up with different outlines。 You may create more than one plan if you like different types of trading。
交易计划反映了你对特定市场的兴趣，你的技术，你的经验，你的账户大小。它反映了你的个性，也反映了市场。如果2个朋友，资金一样，经验一样，市场一样，他们写下交易计划，结果是不同的。如果你喜欢不同类型的交易，你可以写多个交易计划。
If you do not have a plan； start working on one。 Drafting an intelligent plan requires a huge amount of work。 The first time I tried to do it was on a flight from New York to Los Angeles。 I thought that five hours in the air would be enough。 A month later I was still at it。
如果你没有计划，开始写一个。写聪明的计划需要大量的工作。我第一次是在纽约到洛杉矶的飞机上写的。我以为飞机上的5个小时足够了。结果1个月后我还在写。
Here are two fairly basic outlines of trading plans to illustrate their basic structure and provide starting points for developing your own。 Reading someone’s trading plan is like reading a guide to lovemaking。 That manual may open your eyes to a few new positions； but ultimately you’ll have to do what suits your temperament and environment to enjoy the results。
有2个写交易计划的基本框架，可以让你发展你的交易计划。看别人的交易计划就像是看性爱教育片。也许你学到了一些，但最终你要根据自己的性格爱好来享受结果。
Trading Plan A Trader A has 50；000 in his account and is interested in the stock market。 He has been tracking it for a while and has observed that large…capitalization stocks （Dow…type stocks） tend to move in steady trends but swing above and below their central tendencies several times a year。
交易计划A 交易者A的账户有50000元，他对股市有兴趣。他跟踪了一段时间，他发现比较贵的股票（道琼斯指数类股票）一般趋势稳定，但一年有几次波动会离开中心趋势。
A trading plan takes a concept of market behavior … that prices oscillate above and below their average value … and translates it into a plan of action。 It identifies the trend and the deviations； selects the tools for catching them； and includes money management rules； profit targets； and stops。
交易计划采取了市场行为的概念——价格围绕平均价值上下振荡——然后翻译成交易计划。它确认了趋势和标准，选择了工具，还包括资金管理原则，利润目标和止损。
RESEARCH
研究
1。 Download four years’ worth of data for 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average。
2。 Use weekly charts with a 26…week EMA to identify their long…term trends。
A serious trader will test other approaches such as a longer or a shorter EMA； different EMAs for different stocks； or another trend…following tool； such as a least regression trendline。 Finding the best tools for tracking the average consensus of value in your market forces you to do a lot of research before putting on the first trade。
3。 Determine the average deviation from value for each stock you plan to trade。
Measure how high a stock rises above or falls below its weekly EMA before swinging back。 Channels can help； or you can put the numbers into a spreadsheet。 Find out how far from the EMA the reversals occur； both in terms of price and percentages； as well as the average duration of those deviations。
从道琼斯工业平均指数下载30只股票的4年数据。
在周线图上用26周均线确认它们的长期趋势。
认真的交易者会测试其它方法，比如均线的日期参数，大点，或小点，不用的股票用不用的均线，或其它趋势跟踪工具，比如最后衰退趋势线。在交易前，为了找到最好的跟踪平均值的工作，你要做很多研究。
为每个要交易的股票决定相对均值的平均背离值。
在周线图上计算股票最高点和最低点离周均线的距离。通道能起帮助作用，你也可以把数字填进电子表格。计算离均线多远会发生反转，既要用价格，也要用百分比，同样计算背离的平均时间。
WEEKLY ACTIONS
每周的工作
Review the weekly charts of all stocks you follow。 Mark those that have deviated from their central tendencies by more than 75％ of their average deviation and place them on your daily monitoring list。
研究你跟踪的所有股票的周线图。给那些离中心趋势背离75％的做标记，把它们放进没人监视的表格。
DAILY ACTIONS
每天的工作
To streamline our discussion； we will consider only buying even though a plete trading plan is also likely to spell out steps for shorting。
为了说话方便，我们只考虑做多的情况，虽然完整的交易计划也包括做空的步骤。
1。 Apply a 22…day EMA to stocks on your daily monitoring list to define their short…term trends。 Research whether a longer or a shorter EMA would do a better job。 When a stock is deviating on the weekly chart but its daily EMA stops moving and turns flat； it bees a buy candidate。
Here is another research idea： Is buying more profitable when the broad market rises？ How will you define the trend of the broad market？ The EMA of an index； such as the S&P or NASDAQ； or an indicator； such as a new…high–new…low Index*？ If your stocks march to their own drummer； then ignore the broad market； otherwise； you may buy more when the broad market rises and less when it falls。
2。 When the weekly chart shows a downside deviation； buy the first uptick of the daily EMA。 Research types of entries … below the EMA； in its vicinity； at the market； or on a breakout above the previous day’s high。
3。 Place a stop using the SafeZone indicator on the daily chart and set a profit target at the weekly EMA。 Recalculate your orders daily。
在日线图上用22日均线，确认他们的短期趋势。研究一下是否其它均线参数会更好。当股票在周线图上背离，但在日线图上停止波动开始走平，它就变成了买入对象。
还有另外一个研究方法：是不是从宽广的市场上涨利润会更多？你如何定义从宽广市场产生的趋势？股指期货的指数，比如标准普尔或纳斯达克，或某个指标，比如新高——新低指数2？如果你的股票符合自己的特征，那就忽略宽广的市场吧。要么，当宽广的市场上涨时你就多买点，下跌时，你就少买点。
当周线图显示下跌背离时，当日线图上的均线上涨时买入。研究进场类型——在均线下面，靠近均线，或者是超过昨天最高点的突破。
在日线图上使用安全区域指标止损，在周线图上设置止损目标。每天重新计算你的订单情况。
Calculate your dollar risk per share and decide how many shares to buy while observing the 2％ Rule。 A trader with 50；000 in his account may not risk more than 1；000 per trade； including slippage and missions。 Do not enter a trade if 6％ of your account is already exposed to risk in other trades。
计算每股会亏几元，用2％的原则计算要买多少股。一个50000元的账户，每笔风险不应该超过1000元，包括滑点亏损和佣金。如果另外一个账户已经承担了6％的风险，就不要再开仓了。
This plan includes several inviolate rules： buy only when prices are below the weekly EMA； buy only when the daily EMA is rising； do your homework； recalculate your stops daily； and never risk more than 2％ of your account equity； do not expose more than 6％ of your account to risk。 This plan also makes you exercise your judgment about exactly where to enter； where to set profit targets； and what size to trade （as long as you follow the 2％ and the 6％ Rules）。 It goes without saying that you have to back up your written plan by keeping good records。
这个计划包含了几个不能违背的原则：只有当价格低于均线时买入；只有当日线图的均线上涨时才能买入；自己做功课；每天重新计算止损点；单笔交易承受的风险永远不超过资金的2％；不要暴露账户6％的风险。这个计划叫你自己练习判断在哪里进场，在哪里设置利润目标，仓位大小（还要遵守2％和6％原则）。不用多说，你要备份好自己的计划和交易记录。
Your plan is likely to grow more elaborate with the passage of time。 The market will throw several curves at you； which will lead you to adjust your plan and make it longer。 The plan above ties Triple Screen analysis （multiple timeframes and indicators） with money management； entries； and exits。
随着时间的推移，你的计划会变得更详细。市场也许会伤害你，这样会让你调整计划，让计划变得更长。上述计划运用了三重滤网的分析方法（多重时间周期和指标），还有资金管理，进场，出场。
Trading Plan B Trader B has 30；000 of risk capital and wants to trade futures。 He has noticed that those markets tend to spend a lot of time in flat trading ranges； punctuated by relatively brief but fast trends。 He wants to take advantage of those short…term impulse moves。
交易计划B 交易者B有30000元，他想交易期货。他发现这些市场大部分时间是横盘的，有时会有很短暂的快速趋势。他想利用这些短期的波动。
RESEARCH
研究
This trader has relatively little money； but doesn’t want to trade minicontracts。 Therefore； he should focus on inexpensive markets whose normal levels of noise will not overwhelm his money management rules。
这个交易者的资金相对较少，但不想交易迷你合约。因此，他应该关注便宜的市场，这些市场正常的噪音不会超过他资金管理原则的范围。
For example； a 1…point change in the S&P 500 translates into 250 in the S&P futures。 A normal 5…point move on an ordinary day will lead to a 1；250 change in equity； exposing a trader with a 30；000 account to a 4％ loss。 The 2％ Rule puts many volatile and expensive markets off limits for small accounts。 Coffee； soybeans； currencies； and many others have to be left alone until your account grows much larger。
比如，标准普尔500，1个点的变化就等于标准普尔股指期货的250元。正常情况下一天波动5点会导致资金1250元的变化，是30000元账户的4％的风险。对于小账户，2％原则限制了很多昂贵的市场。咖啡，大豆，外汇，很多都不能做，除非你账户变大了。
1。 Download two years’ history in corn； sugar； and copper。 Corn is the least volatile of grains； and sugar is the least volatile tropical。 Both are very liquid； permitting easy entries and exits； unlike other inexpensive markets； such as orange juice； whose thin volume exposes traders to bad slippage。 Copper is liquid and tends to be relatively quiet； except during economic booms。 E…minis； electronically traded index futures； are good for futures traders interested in the stock market。 Download two data series for each contract： at least two years of continuous data for weekly charts and six months of the front month data for daily charts。
2。 Test several EMAs to determine which does the best job of tracking trends on the weekly charts。 Do a similar job with the daily charts。 Find the best channels for each market； especially for the past three months on the daily charts。 Those channels must contain 90 to 95 percent of recent market action。 The past three months are the most relevant； but it is a good idea to go back two years in your channel research to prepare yourself for their dramatic expansions and contractions。 Many traders lose their bearings when markets change。 If you know your history； you’ll feel less surprised。
下载玉米，白糖和铜2年的历史数据。谷物中玉米的波动最小，白糖是热带作物中波动最小的。2者的流动性都很好，可以很轻松地进出，不像其它便宜的市场，比如橙汁，它的交易量太小，交易者的滑点亏损严重。铜的流动性好，除非经济火热，一般很平静。电子迷你合约，就是电子交易的股指期货合约，适合喜欢股市的期货交易者。每个合约都要下载2年的连续数据：周线图至少2年连续数据，日线图半年的数据。
在周线图上测试不同的均线，看看哪个最容易跟踪趋势。在日线图上做类似的工作。为每个市场找到最好的通道，优势是日线图上过去3个月的通道。这些通道必须包含最近市场波动的90％——95％。过去3个月是最相关的，但是从2年前开始研究通道是比较好的，为突然的上涨和下跌做好准备。很多交易者因为市场的变
