动物精神-第5章
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崾保颐且丫涤幸桓龇浅Ａ己玫哪芄痪茏「髦址绫┑木弥贫取＠纾⒋岽蠊婺Ｆ撇；ぬ逑荡蟠蠹跚崃苏獯纹撇院旯劬玫纳撕Α＞」芩牧四伤叭说拇蟊式鹎负趺挥幸鹗б怠！ 〔还罄矗馐俏颐枪适碌牧硪徊糠郑腿缇７⑸哪茄梅⑸吮浠喙苤贫纫脖桓谋淞恕�20世纪80年代以后，人们普遍信仰资本主义应当是完全自由的。赛场或许已经发生了变化，但游戏规则没有跟着变化，这种情况在金融市场上体现得最为明显。我们在前文中讲过的有关住房市场的故事就是最佳例证。过去，对住房抵押贷款有一些基本的限制。商业银行和储蓄银行会谨慎地发放抵押贷款，因为它们自己最有可能是抵押贷款的持有人。不过，后来所有事情都变了：银行变成了抵押贷款的发起人，而不是持有人；但监管还未能反映出金融结构上的这种变化。 公众对监管的反感是这种不作为背后的原因。美国深深地沉溺于一种新的资本主义观。我们也相信游戏应该毫无约束的说法。我们忘记了20世纪30年代以巨大代价换来的难得教训：资本主义是所有可能的制度中最好的制度，但它必须在政府设定规则并充当裁判的竞技场上才能做到这一点。 不过，我们现在并非真的处在资本主义危机中。只是我们必须认识到，资本主义只有在一定的条件下才能生存。其实，我们的整个经济观，包括对动物精神的全部认识，都说明了政府为什么必须制定这些规则。古典理论所描述的充分就业的确有可能存在。但我们认为，总需求的巨大变化来自乐观和悲观情绪的起伏与波动。因为工资主要是由公平因素决定的，所以需求的变化就无法转变为价格的调整，而只能转变为就业的调整。当需求下降时，失业就会增加。减弱这些变化，正是政府的作用。 在这里，我们要再次强调我们的观点，即资本主义不仅出售人们认为自己真正需要的东西，还出售人们想要的东西。尤其在金融市场上，资本主义导致了极端行为和银行破产，而银行破产又造成了更广泛的经济问题。所有这些过程都受到各种故事的推动。人们讲给自己听的关于他们自己的故事、关于其他人会怎样做的故事以及经济作为一个整体会如何运行的故事，所有这些故事都会影响人们的行为，而且它们并不稳定，会随时间而变化。 这样一个充满了动物精神的世界为政府干预提供了机会。政府的角色应该是设定条件，使我们的动物精神可以创造性地发挥更好的作用。换言之，政府必须制定游戏规则。 许多经济学家认为经济应该自由放任，管得最少的政府是最好的政府，政府应该在制定规则方面发挥最少的作用。我们和这些经济学家不同，根本的原因在于我们对经济有不同的认识。如果我们认为？们完全理性，而且几乎都按经济动机来行动，我们也会相信政府不应该监管金融市场，甚至不应该在决定总需求水平上发挥作用。 但是，与之相反，动物精神的各个方面会推动经济朝着不同方向运行。如果政府不进行干预，经济就会发生巨大的就业摆动，金融市场也会不时地陷入混乱。
温总理说：信心比黄金还重要
阅读场所：
发表于 2009…08…10 11：05
无论是郁金香泡沫、南海泡沫、大萧条还是现在的这场危机都充分证明：信心和信用是经济发展的基础，在经济繁荣时期，人们不考虑风险，过度自信；在经济衰退时期，人们过度悲观，过度谨慎，不相信别人。企业不愿意雇人，扩大生产，银行不愿贷款，投资者不愿投资。？？经济危机对人们心理带来的创伤会持续很长时间，很多年轻人也许会把这种影响带到他们年老之后，甚至会影响到下一代，因此迅速采取对策走出危机，以防让更多人受到经济危机带来的心理创伤至关重要。因此走出经济危机除了进行客观改革，还需要采取一切可能的措施修复人们的心理创伤，恢复他们的信心。正如温家宝总理所说，信心比黄金还重要。这也是《动物精神》的主旨之一。
结论值得怀疑，方法可供参考
阅读场所：
发表于 2009…08…04 13：00
这本书从表面上看立意很新！从另一种思维角度来看待经济问题。作者说了这么多，无非就是要表明一个事实，即自由市场的经济会像动物的喜怒哀乐一样无常变化，所以需要大力加以国家的干预，才能避免不理性的行为发生。其实在当今的市场经济中，政府的确是有宏观调控和限制的，并非听任自由的经济模式，但是仍然没有能控制住现在的金融危机和经济下滑。再说过多的政府干预也同样会走向另一种极端——即经济的僵化停滞。因此这样的观点是否具有说服力是值得怀疑的！书中唯一值得参考的作者是从心理分析的角度，解读经济现象中大多数人的跟风行为，恐惧心态或者狂热举动，比较符合正态分布的大众思路！
发表于 2009…09…16 11：01
书不错，但是似乎很多背景译者不是很清楚，导致翻译稍显生涩，阻碍了这个数成为普及读物的计划。原著作者是个大牛，在熟悉相关背景的情况下，还是推荐大家看看的。
亚当·斯密遗漏了什么
/A FAILURE TO CONTROL THE ANIMAL SPIRITS
By M。 Okun 2009…03…11
L ydia Lopokova； wife of the economist John Maynard Keynes； was a famous ballerina。 She was also a Russian émigré。 Thus Keynes knew from the experience of his in…laws the horrors of living in the worst of socialist economies。 But he also knew first…hand the great difficulties that e from unregulated； unfettered capitalism。 He lived through the British depression of the 1920s and 1930s。 Thus Keynes was inspired to find a middle way for modern economies。
We are seeing； in this financial crisis； a rebirth of Keynesian economics。 We are talking again of his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment； Interest and Money； which was written during the Great Depression。 This era； like the present； saw many calls to end capitalism as we know it。 The 1930s have been called the heyday of munism in western countries。 Keynes's middle way would avoid the unemployment and the panics and manias of capitalism。 But it would also avoid the economic and political controls of munism。 The General Theory became the most important economics book of the 20th century because of its sensible balanced message。
In times of high unemployment； creditworthy governments should expand demand by deficit spending。 Then； in times of low unemployment； governments should pay down the resultant debt。 With that seemingly minor change in procedures； a capitalist system can be stable。 There is no need for radical surgery on capitalism。
Adherents to Keynes's message were so eager to get this simple policy implemented； on both sides of the Atlantic； that they failed to notice – or perhaps they intentionally disregarded – that the General Theory also had a deeper； more fundamental message about how capitalism worked； if only briefly spelled out。 It explained why capitalist economies； left to their own devices； without the balancing of governments； were essentially unstable。 And it explained why； for capitalist economies to work well； the government should serve as a counterbalance。
The key to this insight was the role Keynes gave to people's psychological motivations。 These are usually ignored by macroeconomists。 Keynes called them animal spirits； and he thought they were especially important in determining people's willingness to take risks。 Businessmen's calculations； he said； were precarious： “Our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield 10 years hence of a railway； a copper mine； a textile factory； the goodwill of a patent medicine； an Atlantic liner； a building in the City of London amounts to little and sometimes to nothing。” Despite this； people somehow make decisions and act。 This “can only be taken as a result of animal spirits”。 There is “a spontaneous urge to action”。
There are times when people are especially adventuresome – indeed； too much so。 Their adventures are supported in these times by a blithe faith in the future； and trust in economic institutions。 These are the upswing of the business cycle。 But then the animal spirits also veer in the other direction； and then people are too wary。
George Akerlof and I； in our book Animal Spirits （Princeton 2009）； expand on Keynes's concept and tie it in to modern literature on behavioural economics and psychology。 Much more clarity about the psychological underpinnings of animal spirits is possible today。
For example； social psychologists； notably Roger Schank and Robert Abelson； have shown how much stories and storytelling； especially human…interest stories； motivate much of human behaviour。 These stories can count for much more than abstract calculation。 People's economic moods are largely based on the stories that people tell themselves and tell each other that are related to the economy。
We have seen these stories e and go in rapid succession in recent years。 We first had the dot bubble and the envy…producing stories of young millionaires。 It burst in 2000； but was soon replaced with another bubble； involving smart “flippers” of properties。
This mania was the product not only of a story about people but also a story about how the economy worked。 It was part of a story that all investments in securitised mortgages were safe because those smart people were buying them。 Those enviable people who are buying these assets must be checking on them； therefore we do not need to。 We need only run alongside them。
What allowed this mania and these stories to persist as long as they did？ To a remarkable extent we have got into the current economic and financial crisis because of a wrong economic theory – an economic theory that itself denied the role of the animal spirits in getting us into manias and panics。
According to the standard “classical” theory； which goes back to Adam Smith with his Wealth of Nations in 1776； the economy is essentially stable。 If people rationally pursue their own economic interests in free markets they will exhaust all mutually beneficial opportunities to produce goods and exchange with one another。 Such exhaustion of opportunities for mutually beneficial trade results in full employment。 By this theory it could not be otherwise。
Of course； some workers will be unemployed。 But they will be unable to find work only because they are in a temporary search for a job or because they insist on pay that is unreasonably high。 Such unemployment is viewed as voluntary； and evokes no sympathy。
Classical theory also tells us that financial markets will also be stable。 People will only make trades that they consider to benefit themselves。 When entering financial markets – buying stocks or bonds or taking out a mortgage or even very plex securities – they will do due diligence in seeing that what they are buying is worth what they or paying； or what they are selling。
What this theory neglects is that there are times when people are too trusting。 And it also fails to take into account that if it can do so profitably； capitalism will produce not only what people really want； but also what they think they want。 It can produce the medicine people want to cure their ills。 That is what people really want。 But if it can do so profitably； it will also produce what people mistakenly want。
It will produce snake oil。 Not only that： it may also produce the want for the snake oil itself。 That is a downside to capitalism。 Standard economic theory failed to take into account that buyers and sellers of assets might not be taking due diligence； and the marketplace was not selling them insurance against risk in the plex securities that they were buying； but was； instead； selling them the financial equivalent of snake oil。
There is a broader moral to all this – about the nature of capitalism。 On the one hand； we want to take advantage of the wisdom of Adam Smith。 For the most part； the products produced by capitalism are what we really want； produced at a price that we are willing and able to pay。 On the other hand； when confidence is high； and since financial assets are hard to evaluate by those who are buying them； people will and do buy snake oil。 And when that is discovered； as it invariably must be； the confidence disappears and the economy goes sour。
It is the role of the government at two levels to see that these events do not occur。 First； it has a duty to regulate asset markets so that people are not falsely lured into buying snake…oil assets。 Such standards for our financial assets make as much mon sense as the standards
