e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第55章
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有关NFM的商品魔力可以从最近Des Moines地区的消费者行为调查报告中看出端倪，NFM在该地区所有的20家家具零售商当中排名第三，这讯息乍听之下或许没什么了不得，但你可知道其它19家都位在Des Moines，除了NFM离该地区足足有130英哩远，这距离代表当地的居民虽然在附近有更多的选择，却还是情愿大老远开车走相当从华盛顿到费城的距离，只为了买我们的产品，事实上NFM就像波仙一样，急速地扩张其版图范围，靠的不是传统地展店模式，而是利用价格与种类散发出强烈的磁场，吸引客户远道而来。
Last year at the Mart there occurred an historic event： I experienced a counterrevelation。 Regular readers of this report know that I have long scorned the boasts of corporate executives about synergy； deriding such claims as the last refuge of scoundrels defending foolish acquisitions。 But now I know better： In Berkshire's first synergistic explosion； NFM put a See's candy cart in the store late last year and sold more candy than that moved by some of the full…fledged stores See's operates in California。 This success contradicts all tenets of retailing。 With the Blumkins； though； the impossible is routine。
去年在家具店发生了一件重大的历史事件，使我经历了一次自我反省，经常阅读我们年报的读者应该都知道长久以来我对于企业主管动不动就强调的企业综效饬之以鼻，认为这不过是经营阶层对于愚蠢购并案所作的推托之词，不过现在我学乖了，在Berkshire我们创造出第一个企业综效，NFM在去年底决定在店内摆设喜斯的糖果车，结果所卖出的糖果甚至比加州的旗舰店还要多，这次的成功打破了所有零售业的定律，有B太太家族在，所有不可能的事都变成家常便饭。
At See's； physical volume set a record in 1990 … but only barely and only because of good sales early in the year。 After the invasion of Kuwait； mall traffic in the West fell。 Our poundage volume at Christmas dropped slightly； though our dollar sales were up because of a 5％ price increase。
提到喜斯糖果，1990年的销售数量又创新高，不过成长相当有限且主要是拜年初业绩大好所致，在伊拉克入侵科威特之后，西方世界的交通活动大减，使得圣诞节的销售数量稍微下滑，虽然因为调整价格的关系，使得我们的营收成长了5％。
That increase； and better control of expenses； improved profit margins。 Against the backdrop of a weak retailing environment； Chuck Huggins delivered outstanding results； as he has in each of the nineteen years we have owned See's。 Chuck's imprint on the business … a virtual fanaticism about quality and service … is visible at all of our 225 stores。
销售金额增加加上营业费用控制得当，获利也有所改善，面对零售业大环境不佳的窘境，就如同过去他接手后的19年，Chuck Huggins还是一如往常递出漂亮的成绩单，Chuck对于品质与服务的坚持，在我们所有225家分店中都看得到。
One happening in 1990 illustrates the close bond between See's and its customers。 After 15 years of operation； our store in Albuquerque was endangered： The landlord would not renew our lease； wanting us instead to move to an inferior location in the mall and even so to pay a much higher rent。 These changes would have wiped out the store's profit。 After extended negotiations got us nowhere； we set a date for closing the store。
1990年所发生的一件事最足以说明喜斯糖果与客户之间紧密的关系，经过15年的营运，我们在Albuquerque的分店经营发生危机，地主不愿与我们继续签订租约，反而希望我们搬到购物商场地点较差的摊位，并且还要调涨租金，如此一来将会把我们仅有的利润给吃光，经过协调不成，迫不得已我们贴出的即将停业的告示。
On her own； the store's manager； Ann Filkins； then took action； urging customers to protest the closing。 Some 263 responded by sending letters and making phone calls to See's headquarters in San Francisco； in some cases threatening to boycott the mall。 An alert reporter at the Albuquerque paper picked up the story。 Supplied with this evidence of a consumer uprising； our landlord offered us a satisfactory deal。 （He； too； proved susceptible to a counterrevelation。）
之后靠着店经理Ann Filkins个人的努力，采取行动敦促客户们像房东表达抗议，总计有263位客户写信或打电话到喜斯位于旧金山的总部，有的甚至扬言要抵制购物商场，甚至引起当地记者的注意，大幅刊载这项消息，有了众多客户的支持，房东最后终于妥协，提供一个令我们满意的条件（我想他应该也得到一个自我反省的机会教育）。
Chuck subsequently wrote personal letters of thanks to every loyalist and sent each a gift certificate。 He repeated his thanks in a newspaper ad that listed the names of all 263。 The sequel： Christmas sales in Albuquerque were up substantially。
事后Chuck对喜斯所有忠实的支持者一一写给每个人亲笔的感谢函，并在报纸上刊登所有263位客户名单，后续的发展是我们在Albuquerque分店的业绩大幅成长。
Charlie and I were surprised at developments this past year in the media industry； including newspapers such as our Buffalo News。 The business showed far more vulnerability to the early stages of a recession than has been the case in the past。 The question is whether this erosion is just part of an aberrational cycle … to be fully made up in the next upturn … or whether the business has slipped in a way that permanently reduces intrinsic business values。
查理跟我对于过去几年媒体事业的发展感到相当的意外，包含水牛城日报等报纸在内，这个产业现在因为经济衰退所受到的伤害，要比过去的经验要来的严重许多，问题是这种退化只是因为景气循环的暂时失调呢？ （意味着下次景气翻扬会再回复），或是有可能一去不复返，企业的价值就此永远地流失掉。
Since I didn't predict what has happened； you may question the value of my prediction about what will happen。 Nevertheless； I'll proffer a judgment： While many media businesses will remain economic marvels in parison with American industry generally； they will prove considerably less marvelous than I； the industry； or lenders thought would be the case only a few years ago。
因为我没能预料到已经发生的事，所以你可能会质疑我预测未来的能力，尽管如此我还是提供个人的判断供大家参考，虽然相较于美国其它产业，媒体事业仍然维持一个不错的经济荣景，不过还是远不如我个人、产业界或是借款人几年前的预期。
The reason media businesses have been so outstanding in the past was not physical growth； but rather the unusual pricing power that most participants wielded。 Now； however； advertising dollars are growing slowly。 In addition； retailers that do little or no media advertising （though they sometimes use the Postal Service） have gradually taken market share in certain merchandise categories。 Most important of all； the number of both print and electronic advertising channels has substantially increased。 As a consequence； advertising dollars are more widely dispersed and the pricing power of ad vendors has diminished。 These circumstances materially reduce the intrinsic value of our major media investments and also the value of our operating unit； Buffalo News … though all remain fine businesses。
媒体事业过去只所以能有如此优异的表现，并不是因为销售数量上的成长，而主要是靠所有的业者运用非比寻常的价格主导力量，不过时至今日，广告预算成长已大不如前，此外逐渐取得商品销售市场占有率的一般零售通路商根本就不做媒体广告（虽然有时他们会做邮购服务），最重要的是印刷与电子广告媒体通路大幅增加，因此广告预算被大幅度地分散稀释，广告商的议价能力逐渐丧失殆尽，这种的现象大大地减低我们所持有几个主要媒体事业投资与水牛城报纸的实际价值，虽然大体而言，他们都还算是不错的企业。
Notwithstanding the problems； Stan Lipsey's management of the News continues to be superb。 During 1990； our earnings held up much better than those of most metropolitan papers； falling only 5％。 In the last few months of the year； however； the rate of decrease was far greater。
不看这些问题，Stan Lipsey的新闻事业经营还是相当地杰出，1990年我们的盈余比起其它主要都会地区的报纸要好的多，大概只下滑了5％，虽然去年有几个月份，减少的幅度稍微大了一点。
I can safely make two promises about the News in 1991： （1） Stan will again rank at the top among newspaper publishers； and （2） earnings will fall substantially。 Despite a slowdown in the demand for newsprint； the price per ton will average significantly more in 1991 and the paper's labor costs will also be considerably higher。 Since revenues may meanwhile be down； we face a real squeeze。
展望1991年我可以很安心地向大家做出两个保证（1）Stan将会继续在所有的主要新闻出版者当中名列前茅（2）盈余一定会大幅缩水，因为虽然新闻印刷需求大幅缩水，但每吨印刷成本与劳工成本还是会大幅增加，再加上营收下降，面临两头挤压的窘境。
Profits may be off but our pride in the product remains。 We continue to have a larger 〃news hole〃 … the portion of the paper devoted to news … than any parable paper。 In 1990； the proportion rose to 52。3％ against 50。1％ in 1989。 Alas； the increase resulted from a decline in advertising pages rather than from a gain in news pages。 Regardless of earnings pressures； we will maintain at least a 50％ news hole。 Cutting product quality is not a proper response to adversity。
获利虽然缩水，但我们对于产品依然感到骄傲，比起其它相同规模的报纸，我们拥有超高的新闻比率…新闻占报纸所有版面的比率，从1989年的50。1％增加为52。3％，只可惜增加的原因是因为广告量的减少，而不是新闻版面的增加，虽然受到盈余不小的压力，但我们还是会坚持50％的新闻比率，降低产品的品质不是身处逆境最好的应对方式。
he news at Fechheimer； our manufacturer and retailer of uniforms； is all good with one exception： George Heldman； at 69； has decided to retire。 I tried to talk him out of it but he had one irrefutable argument： With four other Heldmans … Bob； Fred； Gary and Roger … to carry on； he was leaving us with an abundance of managerial talent。
接下来是我们制服的制造与销售商费区海默的好消息，除了一个坏消息之外，那就是69岁的George Heldman决定要退休，我曾经试着说服他，不过他有一项令人无法拒绝的理由，因为他留下了其它四位Heldmans家族的成员…Bob、Fred、Gary与Roger做接班。
Fechheimer's operating performance improved considerably in 1990； as many of the problems we encountered in integrating the large acquisition we made in 1988 were moderated or solved。 However； several unusual items caused the earnings reported in the 〃Sources〃 table to be flat。 In the retail operation； we continue to add stores and now have 42 in 22 states。 Overall； prospects appear excellent for Fechheimer。
费区海默的经营绩效在1990年又大幅增进，因为先前在1988年大型的购并所产生的问题已逐渐获得解决，然而由于几个特殊的事件使得我们今年的盈余表现平平，在零售的部份，我们持续地拓展店面，目前在全美22个州拥有42家店，总言之，我们对于费区海默的前景仍然相当看好。
At Scott Fetzer； Ralph Schey runs 19 businesses with a mastery few bring to running one。 In addition to overseeing three entities listed on page 6 … World Book； Kirby； and Scott Fetzer Manufacturing … Ralph directs a finance operation that earned a record 12。2 million pre…tax in 1990。
轮到史考特飞兹，Ralph Schey经营19家企业的手法比起一般人经营一个还娴熟，除了后面所叙述的三家企业…世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特飞兹制造公司之外，Ralph甚至还掌管一家年税前获利1；220万美元的财务公司。
Were Scott Fetzer an independent pany； it would rank close to the top of the Fortune 500 in terms of return on equity； although it is not in businesses that one would expect to be economic champs。 The superior results are directly attributable to Ralph。
如果史考特飞兹是一个独立的集团，它在财富五百大股东权益报酬率的排名一定能名列前茅，虽然它所处的产业很难出现耀眼的明星，但这些难得的成绩全都要归功于Ralph。
At World Book； earnings improved on a small decrease in unit volume。 The costs of our decentralization move were considerably less in 1990 than 1989 and the benefits of decentralization are being realized。 World Book remains far and away the leader in United States encyclopedia sales and we are growing internationally； though from a small base。
世界百科全书，虽然销售数量略�
