股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第11章

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indicating　a　narrow　range　between　the　opening　and　closing　prices。（see　Figure　4。7）。　However；　you　have　to　be　careful。　Candlestick。meanings。are　contextual。　The　meanings。of　candlestick。shapes。differ　depending　on　whether　they　appear　near　the　top　of　the　range　or　the　bottom。　Meanings。will　also　differ　if　several　candlesticks。are　clustered　together。　In　other　words；　a　specific。group　of　candlesticks。can　indicate　either　an　extremely　bullish　market　or　an　extremely　bearish　one。　


Reversal　Patterns　
It　is。possible　to　use　candlestick。analysis。to　discover　market　turning　points—the　tops。and　the　bottoms。　One　approach　is。to　look。for　distinctive；　easily　seen　patterns。that　mark。a　top　or　bottom。　The　other　is。to　examine　whether　tops。and　bottoms。have　predictable　patterns。　In　practice；　its。difficult　to　make　judgments。from　a　single　pattern。　A　single*　pattern　may　have*　two；　opposite；　meanings；　depending　on　whether　it　es。after　the　market　has。made　a　substantial　rise　or　a　substantial　fall　（in　fact；　the　meaning　is。the　same　in　that　the　pattern　indicates。a　market　reversal；　but　it　means。the　opposite　in　the　sense　of　going　up　or　going　down）。　The　key；　therefore；　is。to　examine　not　only　the　shape　but　also　the　timing　of　the　pattern。　
Takuri　and　Hanging。Man。Shapes　
Takuri　and　hanging　man　shapes；　with　a　small　real　body　（the　rectangular　portion）　and　an　extremely　long　lower　shadow；　are　often　seen　at　the　bottom　of　the　market。　Some　examples。are　found　in　Figure　4。8。　They　can　be　quickly　spotted　in　real　charts。　The　point　to　watch　is。the　lower　shadow。　The　relative　size　of　the　real　body　is。not　that　important；　nor　is。the　color—white　or　black—or　the　presence　of　a　short　upper　shadow。　As。long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。noticeably　long；　it　fits。the　pattern。　Takuri。　Strictly　speaking；　takuri　refers。to　a　black。candlestick。that　opens　low　and　has。a　long　lower　shadow　and　a　small　real　body；　but　it　can　also　be　a　white　candlestick。and　can　have　a　bit　of　an　upper　shadow　or　a　large　real　body；　as　long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。substantially　longer　than　the　real　body。　Takuri　also　covers。doji　shapes。like　the　dragonfly。and　the　hammer；　in　which　the　open　and　close　are　the　same；　as　long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。of　sufficient　length。　Takuri　shapes。are　usually　seen　after　the　market　has。experienced　a　substantial　drop；　and　they　represent　an　opportune　buying　signal；　especially　if　they　are　acpanied　by　high　volume　（see　Figure　4。9）。　
A　white　takuri　acpanied　by　volume　（far　greater　trading　volume　than　the　previous　day's）　very　likely　marks。a　bottom。　The　reason　for　that　is。quite　simple。　Consider　the　psychology　of　investors。when　a　takuri　is。formed。　If　the　market　has。been　in　a　prolonged　decline；　investors。begin　to　wonder　why　it　hasn't　stopped　and　when　it　eventually　will。　The　psychology　flips。back。and　forth　between　〃Hurry　up　and　stop　already！”　and　〃Could　the　market　go　down　any　farther？〃　

In　a　situation　like　this；　if　the　market　opens。with　more　selling　than　usual；　it　means。that　investors。have　bee　desperate　and　think。that　the　stock。will　drop　oven　farther。　More　people　decide　to　dump　their　shares　（cut　their　losses。and　run）；　so　the　price　declines。　Other　investors。see　this。and　jump　aboard　the　selling　bandwagon。　Once　the　desperation　selling　and　dumping　are　over；　however；　few　shares　are　left　for　sale；　and　even　a　small　amount　of　buying　will　push　the　price　back。up。　By　the　end　of　the　session；　the　closing　price　is。at　or　very。near　the　open。　In　other　words；　a　takuri　means。that　all　the　sellers。have　sold　and　there　is。no　more　selling　to　e。　The　bears。have　seen　their　supply　lines。cut；　which　makes。the　bulls。stronger；　and　that　is。why　this。shape　often　means。that　the　market　has。bottomed　out　
Hanging。Man。　The　hanging　man　has。the　same　shape　as。an　ordinary　takuri；　but　it's。a　white　candlestick。that　occurs。at　the　top　and　is。often　the　precursor　of　a　steep　decline　（see　Figure　4。10）。　The　name　es。from　the　market　wisdom　that　you'll　end　up　hanging　yourself　if　you　buy　on　this。shape。　Here　too；　it　does。not　really　matter　whether　the　shape's。real　body　is。black。or　white　or　whether　it's。a　doji　or　still　a　takuri。　
The　hanging　man　does。not　appear　often　and　so　should　be　watched　carefully　when　it　does。　You're　far　less。likely　to　see　a　hanging　man　appear　at　the　top　than　you　are　a　takuri　at　the　bottom　or　an　inverted　takuri　at　the　peak。　Nor　does。the　hanging　man　generally　appear　by　itself。　
Once　again；　investor　psychology　explains。why　this。shape　indicates。a　peak。　Unlike　the　takuri；　in　this。case　the　shape　would　appear　at　first　glance　to　be　bullish。　The　bears。have　been　in　charge　and　pushed　the　price　down；　but　the　bulls。were　able　to　push　it　back。up　during　the　day；　and　they　appear　to　be　quite　strong。　But　if　the　bulls。were　really。that　strong；　they　would　have　taken　the　sharp　drop　at　the　open；　pushed　back。up；　and　kept　going　quite　a　bit　farther。　It's。a　question　of　〃Is。that　all　you　can　do？”　If　that　is。as。far　as。the　bulls。can　go；　then　they　are　weak。and　about　to　be　hung。　

Shooting。Star　and。Gravestone　Shapes　
Like　the　long　lower　shadow　shapes；　there　are　also　shapes　with　long　upper　shadows；　which　are　illustrated　in　Figure　4。11。　And　like　those　with　long　lower　shadows；　long　upper　shadow　shapes。indicate　a　top　when　they　appear　in　a　rising　market　and　a　bottom　when　they。appear　in　a　falling　market。　Similarly；　it's。not　that　important　whether　the　real　body　is。white　or　black；　or　whether　the　shape　is。a　doji；　or　whether　there　is。a　slight　lower　shadow。　A　long　upper　shadow　isnsidered　either　a　shooting　star　or　a　gravestone。　
Shooting。Star。　When　a　shape　with　a　small　teal　body　（expressing　the　spread　between　the　open　and　close）　and　a　long　upper　shadow　appears　after　a　significant　rise；　it's。called　a　shooting　star　and　indicates。a　top。　In　other　words；　until　the　previous。session；　the　rising　trend　was。moving　along　nicely　and　prices。were　being　bid　up；　but　the　bulls'　supply　lines。have　now　collapsed。　Traders。looking　to　buy　have　bought　pretty　much　all　they　want　and　there　are　no　more　buyers。left；　so　the　market　has。peaked。　
Gravestone。　Strictly　speaking；　a　gravestone　（Figure　4。12）　is。a　doji　with　a　long　upper　shadow；　and　when　it　appears。near　a　bottom　or　after　a　sharp　decline；　it　usually　indicates。that　the　market　has　bottomed　out。　As。with　the　shooting　star；　the　gravestone　can　be　interpreted　more　loosely　to　be　any　shape　with　a　long　upper　shadow　that　appears。near　a　bottom。　
The　gravestone　is。interpreted　the　same　way　as。a　hanging　man　is。near　the　top。　
The　boars。have　sold　the　stork。back。down　but　have　been　unable　to　break。very　far　through　the　low；　which　indicates　that　a　bottom　has。been　reached。　

The　Logic　Behind。the　Shooting。Star　and。Gravestone　
In　contrast　to　takuri　and　hanging　man；　these　patterns　have　long　upper　shadows。and　small　or　no　real　bodies　（doji）。　If　the　real　body　is　small；　it　is。a　shooting　star　because　the　long　upper　shadow　looks。like　a　et's。tail；　if　it’s。a　doji；　the　shape　is。called　a　gravestone　because　the　long　upper　shadow　looks。like　a　gravestone　extending　upward　from　the　ground。　Both　indicate　reversal　points。　Generally；　a　shooting　star　near　the　top　indicates。that　the　price　has。peaked；　while　a　gravestone　near　the　bottom　indicates。that　it　has。bottomed　out。　However；　in　practice；　the　distinction　is。not　that　important。　What　is。important　is。the　price　movement　in　the　next　session；　the　same　as。for　a　spinning　top　or　harami。　
If　a　shooting　star　appears。near　the　top　of　an　uptrend　and　the　next　day　produces。a　large　black。candlestick；　it　is。a　shooting　star　on　the　eve　of　three　rivers—and　a　decisive　top　signal；　if　it　is。followed　by　an　engulfing　pattern　（tsutsumi）；　it　is。also　a　top　reversal　signal　because　the　stock。is。being　〃carried　for　the　last　time”。　Similarly；　alter　a　downtrend；　a　gravestone　followed　by　a　three　rivers。pattern　would　be　a　decisive　bottom　signal；　whereas。an　engulfing　pattern　means。that　the　stock。is　being　〃picked　straight　up”。　
Both　upper　shadows　and　lower　shadows　can　indicate　tops。or　bottoms。　It's。more　mon　for　a　long　lower　shadow　to　appear　after　a　downtrend　than　an　uptrend；　and　likewise　a　long　upper　shadow　is。more　mon　alter　an　uptrend　than　a　downtrend。　In　other　words；　a　takuri　is。more　mon　than　a　hanging　man　and　a　shooting　star　is。more　mon　than　a　gravestone。　
Another　classic。pattern　near　the　top　of　a　trend　is。the　dark。cloud　cover　（kabuse）。　This　pattern　often　is。seen　when　the　market　is。in　an　uptrend　and　thought　to　be　continuing　upward　but　when　it　appears。near　the　top；　it　should　be　interpreted　as　a　warning　sign。　The　inversion　of　a　dark。cloud　cover　is。the　piercing　pattern　（kirikomi）　which　appears。near　the　bottom　and　indicates。the　market　is。bottoming　out。　Although　they　differ　in　their　bullish　and　bearish　indications；　these　patterns。have　exactly　the　same　psychology　at　work　in　their　production。　
Dark　Cloudver　
In　this。pattern；　a　paratively。large　white　candlestick。is。followed　by。a　black。candlestick。that　opens　higher　than　the　white　candlestick's。close　（higher　than　the　top　of　its　real　body　and　resembling　a　dark。cloud　on　top　of　the　white　candlestick）。　If　a　large　black。candlestick。is。formed　near　the　top　and　extends。below　the　median　price　for　the　previous。day。　it　usually　indicates　a　reversal。　However；　if　the　next　day's。price　exceeds。the　black。candlestick's。high；　the　dark。cloud　cover　has。broken　and　the　uptrend　monly　accelerates。　（Figure　4。13）　

There　are　other　variations。on　dark。cloud　cover；　depending　on　the　degree　of　coverage。　Some　examples。include　atekubi；　sashikomi；　and　irikubi；　but　they　can　be　considered　to　have　the　same　basic。meaning。　
A　fairly　convincing　argument　can　be　made　about　the　formation　of　dark。cloud　cover　and　the　reason　the　psychological　state　among　market　participants。leading　to　it　results。in　the　formation　of　a　top。　Here's。what　happens：　The　market　is。in　an　uptrend；　and　a　fairly　large　white　candlestick。is。formed。　If　the　session　closes。at　or　near　the　high；　most　people　believe　that　there　will　be　more　gains。the　next　day　because　this。stock。still　has。a　long　way　to　go。　If　it　does。indeed　open　higher　the　next　day；　it　would　not　be　unmon　to　think。that　the　bulls。will　crowd　in　because　their　anticipation　has。been　confirmed。　In　some　cases；　there　is。a　window　or　gap　（see　Figure　4。22）　that　is。opened　and　the　price　continues。to　soar。　But　what　if　that　doesn't　happen？　The　stock。has　gapped　significantly　higher；　but　at　（or　near）　the　high；　it　begins。to　slide。　More　investors。decide　that　this。must　be　the　end；　and　the　decline　accelerates。　If　the　market　is。indeed　still　bullish；　the　decline　should　stop　at　the　previous。day's。high　or　close；　but　if　it　breaks。through　the　previous。day's。close　and　still　does　not　stop；　more　selling　piles。on。　At　the　end　of　the　day；　the　stock。closes。far　below　the　previous。day's。close　and　investors。ask。themselves；　〃What　were　yesterday's。gains。all　about　anyway？〃　A　top　has。formed。　If；　on　the　third　day；　the　stock。opens。even　lower；　then　the　worst　has。been　confirmed　and　more　shares。are　dumped；　as。it　to　corroborate　the　peak。　
If　these　two　days。of　movement　were　pressed　into　one；　it　would　produce　an　upper　shadow　or　a　lower　shadow—the　same　shape　as。a　shooting　star　or　hanging　man。　This。is。yet　another　and　very　convincing　reason　why　dark　cloud　cover　is。a　pattern　that　indicates　a　top。　
The　Piercing。Pattern　
In　this。pattern；　the　first　day　has。a　large　black。candlestick。followed　on　the　second　day　by　a　large　white　candlestick；　extending　above　the　middle　of　the　black。candlestick。　Often　the　pattern　indic