股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第12章

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In　this。pattern；　the　first　day　has。a　large　black。candlestick。followed　on　the　second　day　by　a　large　white　candlestick；　extending　above　the　middle　of　the　black。candlestick。　Often　the　pattern　indicates。that　the　selling　is。over；　a　long　downtrend　hase　to　an　end　and　an　upward　reversal　has。begun。　

This。pattern　is。exactly。the　opposite　of　dark。cloud　cover。　The　price　has。been　sliding　downward；　and　there　is。a　large　black。candlestick。causing　most　people　to　think　that　the　stock　has。even　farther　to　drop。　If；　in　the　midst　of　this。market　sentiment；　the　stock。opens。significantly　lower；　most　people　might　think。that　it's。heading　farther　down　and　bee　bearish。　However；　if　the　opening　is。actually　at　（or　near）　the　bottom　and　the　price　starts　to　rebound；　investors。who　sold　short　begin　to　buy　back　their　positions；　and　bargain　hunters。decide　that　they　had　better　jump　in　quickly；　amplifying　the　rebound　so　that　the　stork。closes。significantly　higher　than　it　did　the　previous。day　and　participants。perceive　it　to　have　bottomed　out。　
It　may　be　easier　to　understand　this。if　the　two　days’　movement　ispressed　into　one。　A　large　decline　followed　by　a　higher　close　will　produce　a　long　lower　shadow；　and　this。shape—appearing　at　or　near　the　bottom—is。the　same　as。a　takuri　and　usually　marks。the　bottom　of　the　trend。　（Figure　4。14）　
In　a　piercing　pattern；　the　first　day　hits。a　large　black。candlestick；　followed　on　the　next　day　by　a　large　while　candlestick。that　extends。above　the　middle　of　the　black。candlestick。　An　inverse　to　dark。cloud　cover；　the　pattern　often　indicates。that　the　selling　is。over；　a　long　downtrend　hase　to　an　end　and　an　upward　reversal　has。begun。　
The　Engulfing。Pattern　
This。pattern　is。sometimes。referred　to　as。tsutsumi　or　daki　（hug）。　A　candlestick。with　a　small　real　body　is。engulfed　by　a　larger　candlestick；　resembling　a　mother　hugging　her　child。　In　other　words；　the　first　day　is。white　and　the　second　day　is。also　white；　and　the　second　day。has。opened　below　the　first　day's。open　and　closed　above　the　first　day's。close。　Regardless。of　whether　white　or　black。candlesticks。are　involved；　the　key　characteristic。of　the　engulfing　pattern　is。that　the　real　body　of　the　second　day　is。larger　on　both　the　top　and　bottom　than　the　real　body　of　the　first。　Were　the　two　days’　movement　pressed　into　one；　it　would　form　a　long　upper　shadow　or　lower　shadow；　which　makes。it　easy　to　understand　why　it　is。a　top　or　bottom　reversal。　
If；　at　or　near　the　top；　a　large　black。candlestick。engulfs。the　previous。day's。smaller　can…dlestick；　it's。not　surprising　that　this。would　mark。the　peak；　but　a　large　black。candlestick。near　the　bottom　of　a　downtrend；　which　would　seem　to　indicate　further　declines；　often　marks。the　bottoming…out　point。　Similarly；　a　large　engulfing　white　candlestick。at　or　near　the　bottom　of　a　downtrend　is。easily　taken　as。an　indication　that　prices。have　bottomed　out；　but　it　is。surprisingly　mon　for　this。same　engulfing　white　candlestick。to　mark。the　top　in　an　uptrend　（see　Figure　4。15）。　

Harami　
In　the　harami　pattern；　a　large　candlestick。of　either　color　is。followed　by　a　smaller　candlestick；　resulting　in　a　shape　that　resembles。a　pregnant　woman　（which　is。the　meaning　of　harami）。　Harami　is。another　reversal　pattern；　the　child　is。seen　as。separating　from　the　mother　（see　Figure　4。16）。　When　this。pattern　appears。at　or　near　the　top　of　an　uptrend　and　consists。of　a　large　white　candlestick。followed　by　a　small　white　candlestick。（white/white　harami）；　it　is　mon　for　the　trend　to　break。downward；　marking　a　peak。　Conversely；　when　this。pattern　appears。at　or　near　the　bottom　of　a　downtrend　and　consists。of　a　large　black。candlestick。followed　by　a　small　black。candlestick。（black/black。harami）；　it　ismon　for　the　trend　to　break。upward；　marking　a　trough。　
Harami　pattern　is。the　opposite　of　an　engulfing　pattern。　Price　movements。are　entirely　within　the　range　of　the　previous。day。　The　question　is。not　really　whether　they　are　white　candlesticks。or　black。candlesticks。　The　decision　to　sell　or　buy　depends。on　where　the　pattern　is。seen　（near　the　top　or　near　the　bottom）。　The　first　day's。candlestick。isnsidered　the　mother；　the　second　day’s。is　the　child　she　carries。　A　reversal　in　the　trend　is。very　mon　when　the　child　is。a　doji。　Market　wisdom　says　to　follow　the　break。with　a　harami。　If　either　the　previous。day's。high　or　low　is。exceeded；　the　trend　usually　continues。in　that　direction。　
Whether　the　shadows。are　included　in　the　large　candlestick　is。disputed。　Some　argue　that　the　shadows。should　not　be　included　in　either　the　mother　or　the　child；　others。believe　that　for　the　mother　（the　large　candlestick）；　the　shadows　should　be　included；　whereas。for　the　child　（the　smaller　candlestick）；　they　should　not　be　included。　

Figure　4。17　shows。the　kind　of　price　movements。likely　to　produce　a　harami　pattern；　which　is。the　same　as。the　triangle；　or　pennant　pattern　in　other　forms。of　technical　analysis。　The　lop　is。flat　and　the　bottoms。keep　moving　higher；　or　the　bottom　is。Hat　and　the　tops。keep　moving　lower；　or　the　bottoms。rise　and　the　tops。fall　at　the　same　time　within　a　limited　range　of　movement。　In　the　triangle　pattern　like　that　in　Figure　4。17；　the　break　es。when　the　price　breaks。through　either　the　upper　resistance　line　or　lower　resistance　line。　
Therefore；　if　a　harami　appears。in　an　uptrend　and　breaks。downward　the　next　day；　the　price　tends。to　keep　falling　and　a　bear　market　ensues。　On　the　other　hand；　if　it　opens。higher；　it's。highly　likely　that　further　gains。will　follow。　By　contrast；　a　harami　in　a　downtrend　followed　by　a　lower　open　the　next　day　indicates。that　the　market　is。still　far　from　bottoming　out　（except　in　cases。in　which　there　is。a　sharp　rise　after　the　open）；　whereas。a　higher　open　the　next　day。makes　it　likely　that　the　bottom　has。been　reached。　
White/white　harami　and。black/black　harami。　Market　wisdom　says。to　follow　the　break　with　a　harami　pattern；　but　if　the　market　has。already　had　a　good　rise　（and　is。at　or　near　the　top）；　a　large　white　candlestick。followed　by　a　small。white　candlestick。in　a　harami　pattern　tends。to　indicate　a　peak。（in　other　words；　the　harami　tends。to　break。downward）。　On　the　other　hand；　if　there　has　already　been　a　significant　drop　（prices。are　at　or　near　the　bottom）　and　a　large　black。candlestick。is。followed　by　a　small　black。candlestick。in　a　harami　pattern；　it's。highly　likely　that　a　major　bottom　has　been　reached。　Nonetheless；　market　wisdom　says。to　follow　the　break。　If　you　have　a　long　position　when　there　is。a　white/white　harami；　it　may　be　wise　to　sell—at　least　temporarily。　If　the　price　breaks。upward；　you　can　buy　back。your　shares；　if　it　breaks。downward；　you　can　sell　short。　Likewise；　if　you　have　a　short　position　and　there　is　a　black/black　harami；　its。probably　wise　to　buy　back　the　position　and　wait　for　the　break。　If　the　pattern　breaks。downward；　you　sell　short　again；　upward；　you　go　long　（see　Figure　4。18）。　

The　Tweezers　Top　
Sometimes。referred　to　in　English　as。a　double　top；　the　tweezers。top　forms。when　the　first　day’s。high　and　the　second　day's。high　are　the　same；　resembling　a　pair　of　tweezers。（see　Figure　4。19）。　The　highs。do　not　need　to　e　on　consecutive　days。　The　pattern　can　form　over　a　period　of　several　days。or　even　several　weeks。　With　the　exception　of　a　narabi　aka　（a　continuation　pattern　of　two　white　candlesticks。at　the　top；　which　is。discussed　later　in　the　chapter）；　tweezers。usually　indicate　that　a　peak。has　been　reached；　and　the　important　point　to　watch　is。whether　the　previous。peak。can　be　exceeded。　Ordinarily；　it　is。not　just　the　close　but　the　intraday　high　（corresponding　to　the　shadow）　that　must　be　taken　into　account。　It　is。also　not　necessary　that　prices。be　exactly　the　same。　If　they　are　roughly　the　same；　it　is。still　a　tweezers。pattern。　

The　Tweezers　Bottom　
This。pattern　is。the　inverse　of　the　tweezers。top。　In　English　it　is。sometimes。referred　to　as　a　double　bottom。　The　first　day’s。low　and　the　second　day's。low　are　the　same；　resembling　a　pair　of　tweezers。　The　lows。do　not　need　to　e　on　consecutive　days。　The　pattern　can　form　over　a　period　of　several　days。or　even　several　weeks。　The　important　point　is。that　the　previous。low　was。not　exceeded；　which　indicates。that　the　bottom　is。solid　（see　Figure　4。20）。　

The　Window　
In　the　window；　or　gap；　pattern；　there　is。no　overlap　between　the　first　day's。and　the　second　day's。candlesticks。　The　gap　between　the　two　is。referred　to　as。a　window　（see　Figure　4。21）。　If　a　trend　is。setting　new　prices。or　breaking　out　of　a　holding　pattern　（moving　significantly　in　either　direction　alter　a　period　of　narrow…moves）；　market　wisdom　says。to　follow　the　break。　It's。generally　easier　for　the　price　to　move　in　the　direction　of　the　window。　In　the　case　of　holding　patterns；　the　window　is。often　closed　（trading　is。active　at　the　gap）；　and　it　ismon　for　prices。to　return　to　their　original　levels。　
The　Reversal　to。the　Window　
If　a　market　is。in　an　uptrend　and　produces　a　rising　window　（gap）；　the　next　minor　reversal　will　often　return　prices。to　the　gap；　effectively　closing　the　window　（see　Figure　4。22）。　Once　the　window　is。closed；　it　ismon　for　the　trend　to　reverse　upward；　if　it　fails。to　do　so；　it　ismon　for　the　price　to　return　to　where　it　originally　was。（called　going　home）。　Likewise；　a　downtrend　that　has。a　falling　window　will　also　often　see　the　window　closed　on　the　next　minor　reversal；　providing　an　extremely　effective　opportunity　for　additional　buying　or　selling。　


Indecision　Patterns　
The　Star；　Cross；　and。Spinning。Top　
The　star；　cross；　and　spinning　top　arcnsidered　indicators　of　indecision　and　potential　reversal。　However；　one　should　not　simplistically　conclude　that　the　market　has　peaked　when　one　of　these　shapes　appears。near　the　top　or　that　it　has。bottomed　out　when　one　of　the　shapes。appears。near　the　bottom。　The　important　points。are　how　the　shape　appears。and　how　prices。move　afterward。　In　other　words；　the　shapes。say　that　the　market　is。indecisive　and　has　not　yet　determined　whether　it　wants。to　go　higher　or　lower。　It　will　follow　the　next　direction　for　which　there　is。significant　momentum。　A　large　black。candle　after　an　indecision　shape　or　an　open　that　is。significantly。lower　will　often　be　followed　by。further　declines；　whereas。an　open　that　is。significantly　higher　is。often　followed　by　further　advances。　

Example　1　in　Figure　4。24　shows。a　case　in　which　there　is。indecision　at　the　top　of　the　range；　indicating　resistance　to　going　any　farther。　This　is。very　likely　to　be　the　peak。　Example　2　resembles。an　evening　star　on　three　rivers。occurring　in　conjunction　with　a　pattern　indicating　the　top。　There　was。a　relatively　large　white　candlestick；　followed　by　an　indecision　shape　（star；　cross；　spinning　top）。　If　on　the　third　day　there　is。a　relatively。large　black。candlestick。that　opens。lower　than　day　two's。close；　it's。called　evening　star　on　three　rivers；　or　evening　cross；　and　considered　an　indication　of　a　peak。　However；　if　this。pattern　occurs。after　a　relatively。large　white　candlestick。and　the　next　day　opens。higher　and　produces。another　white　candlestick；　it'smon　for　the　gains　to　accelerate；　so　the　star　cannot　blindly　be　taken　as　an　indicator　of　the　peak。　
Example　3　shows。the　inverse　of　Example　1。　The　market　is。holding　at　or　near　the　bottom；　and　this。figure　indicates。that　downward　resistance　has。solidified　and　prices。are　likely　to　bottom　out。　Example　4　is。the　inverse　of　Example　2。　If　this。pattern　occurs。after　a　fairly。large　black。candlestick；　it　would　appear　that　prices。are　bottoming　out。　If　the　final　d