股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第16章

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In　Figure　5。8　the　monthly　chart　is。displayed　on　the　far　left；　with　the　weekly　and　daily　data　pared　in　the　middle　and　far　right。　The　oscillator　extreme　is。the　difference　between　two　averages。plotted　as。an　oscillator。　When　the　averages。cross；　the　oscillator　crosses　through　the　zero　horizontal　line。　Therefore；　the　spread　differential　between　the　averages。is　plotted　as。a　displacement　from　zero；　which　is。another　example　of　detrending。　The　three　time　horizons。are　alwayspared　together。　The　monthly　chart　displays。an　extreme　negative　displacement。　The　daily　chart　shows。it　is。neither　overbought　nor　oversold。　The　weekly　chart　might　be　suggesting　that　one　will　see　a　new　price　low　after　a　price　rebound。　The　reasoning　behind　this。opinion　is。that　a　new　momentum　extreme　developed　at　Y　and　we　should　expect　the　old　extreme；　at　X；　to　be　retested　in　the　future。　The　posite　Index　is。a　much　better　measure　of　this。type　of　retesting　pattern　into　old　lines。of　horizontal　support　or　resistance。　Such　a　retest　often　produces。a　new　price　low。　
Everything　we　monitor　its。analysts。should　contribute　to　our　inner　barometer　or　intuitive　gut　feeling。　It's。like　having　two　inner　poles：　One　pole　weighs。bullish　evidence；　the　other；　our　negative　pole；　measures。the　mounting　evidence　to　sell。　As。evidence　builds。on　one　side；　conflicts。can　develop　to　offset　the　results。　When　there's。a　conflict；　we　stand　aside。　This。balance　bees。the　art　of　technical　analysis。　All　that　we　do　should　contribute　to　our　sense　of　probability　based　on　the　historical　oute　of　our　technical　tools。　Therefore；　methods。that　provide　valuable　information　and　use　different　techniques。can　enhance　our　accuracy。　
Figure　5。9　shows。a　one…month　chart　for　the　3…month　Eurodollar　（bar　chart）　and　an　inverted　one…month　view　of　Brent　crude　oil　（line　chart）。　The　inverse　correlation　shows　periods。when　the　3…month　Eurodollar　would　lead　the　oil　market　or　provide　significant　divergence　to　raise　questions。about　the　relationship　between　these　two　markets。　As　in　2003；　when　a　highlyrrelated　or　inversely　correlated　market　is。leading；　it's。a　good　opportunity　to　examine　the　leading　market　to　gain　a　jump　on　the　market　of　real　interest　such　as。oil。　If　we　could　determine　the　calendar　window　when　a　market　turn　may　develop　in　the　leading　market；　it　would　offer　an　even　greater　advantage。　


W。D。　Gann　
Defining　the　dates。for　high…risk。market　reversals。can　be　done。　However；　the　methods　are　far　more　sophisticated　than　the　conventional　cycle　analysismonly　in　practice　today。　Markets。expand　and　contract　along　both　price　and　time　axes。　Most　people　use　fixed…period　cycles。in　which　a　constant　interval　is。sought　to　connect　market　price　lows。　This。is。a　method　that　depends。on　finding　a　correlation　after　the　fact　with　hope　it　will　repeat　in　the　future。　This。method　can　never　reveal　the　underlying　cause　of　the　cycle；　and　fixed…interval　cycles。cannot　contend　with　expansion　and　contraction　phases。within　the　market's。natural　progression。　
In　Figure　5。9；　a　time　study　has。been　added　to　this。intermarket　chart　to　introduce　the　cycle　analysis。of　W。D。　Gann　into　the　discussion。　The　analytic。work。of　W。D。　Gann　（William　Delbert　Gann；　1878…1955）　is。widely　misrepresented；　causing　much　confusion　for　students。of　cycle　analysis。　The　man　himself　wrote　in　a　veiled　language　all　his。own；　making　his。work。even　more　difficult　to　understand。　But　he　had　pelling　reasons。for　writing　in　such　a　manner。　
The　interest　in　understanding　W。D。　Gunn's。methods。are　growing　as。technical　analysis　gains。acceptance　around　the　world。　In　the　1920s；　Gann　reportedly　made　56　million　trading　stocks。and　modities。　He　wrote　several　astonishing　public。forecasts。　His。most　well　known　is。the　report　for　1929　which　detailed　the　timing；　duration；　and　magnitude　of　the　Crash　of　1929。　Although　his。ability　to　forecast　the　crash　is。impressive；　it　is　exceeded　by　his。further　advice　to　his。clients。to　aggressively　buy　stocks。at　the　lows。of　the　Great　Depression　in　1932。　
One　of　the　most　useful　original　Gann　charts。to　study　is。his。May　Soybeans。chart。　It　is。a　hand…drawn　chart　（posted　in　the　Chart　Gallery　on　my　Web　site　at　aeroinvest）　demonstrating　Gann's　use　of　confluence　along　horizontal；　vertical；　and　diagonal　axes。　Confluence　further　forms。from　multiple　methods。along　the　diagonal；　which　is。rarely　applied　or　discussed　correctly　in　today’s。booksncerning　W。D。　Gann。　The　start　of　the　downtrend　is。not　the　price　high；　but　the　small　secondary　high　that　marks。the　start　of　the　major　decline。　It　is。at　this　secondary　retracement　before　a　significant　trend　change　develops。that　his。methods　converge；　forming　a　confluence　target　in　price；　time；　and　geometry。　Gann　often　stated　that　the　actual　start　of　a　new　trend　is　not　at　the　conclusion　of　the　prior　campaign　or　trend。　He　viewed　the　first　retracement　that　fails。to　make　a　new　high　or　low　as。the　start　of　the　new　trend　and　a　safer　entry　for　trading。　This　realization　often　occurs。to　more　experienced　traders。　Patience　and　risk。management　are　two　reasons。Gann　was。so　successful。　
Gann　was。the　most　sophisticated　practitioner　of　confluence　analysis。　The　Fibonacci　target　price　zones。we　explored　earlier　cannot　answer　the　question　of　when　the　target　zone　will　be　realized　and　which　major　target　is。the　final　pivot。　Yet　Gann　was。able　to　identify　the　price；　duration　of　the　trend；　and　timing　for　the　start　and　end。　This。level　of　clarity　is。impressive。　
The　written　forecasts。prove　Gann's。methodology；　but　then　the　new　student　faces。a　major　obstacle　to　learning　his。methods。of　market　analysis。　Most　books。on　the　market　todayntain　the　work。of　John　L。　Gann　and　not　the　methods。of　his。father。　Traders。then　mistakenly。apply　the　son's。methods。with　poor　results。and　abandon　their　desire　to　learn　more。　Confidence　was。further　eroded　when　John　Gann　claimed　his。father　was。a　fraud　and　did　not　have　the　financial　assets。to　substantiate　the　trading　gains。within　the　United　States。　These　questions。overshadowing　W。D。　Gann　can　all　be　explained。　
A　closer　look。reveals。that　John　may　have　been　a　bitter　man　carrying　a　grudge　to　his。grave。　Gann　divorced　John’s。mother；　Sadie；　in　1937。　When　Gann　married　again　in　1944；　his　third　wife；　Londi；　was。thirty　years。younger。　John　apparently　never　accepted　the　union。　Add　to　this。the　fact　that　John　L。　Gann　inherited　no　cash　upon　his。father's　passing　—　it　passed　to　his。surviving　wife；　Londi　—　and　you　have　all　the　motive　needed　for　why　the　father　and　son　did　not　see　eye　to　eye。　
The　most　important　question　needing　clarification　is。whether　Gann's。money　trail　can　be　tracked。　It　wasmon　practice　of　high…net…worth　individuals。to　take　funds。out　of　the　United　States　to　avoid　ine　tax；　which　was。staggering　during　the　Depression。　During　this。period　of　high　taxation；　Gann　frequently　flew　to　the　Cayman　Islands。out　of　Miami。　His。lifestyle　substantiated　his。trading　success。as。he　maintained　his。Wall　Street　office　through　the　Great　Depression　and　kept　his。employees。on　a　time…share　basis。throughout　this。difficult　period。　He　was。also　one　of　a　handful　of　businessmen　able　to　own　two　planes　and　retain　a　pilot　during　this。historic。economicntraction。　
Gann's　pilot；　Elinor　Smith；　worked　for　him　for　more　than　twenty　years。　Their　many　flights。included　Gann's。sojourns。to　the　Cayman　Islands。　Elinor　Smith's。fascinating　stories。substantiate　and　clarify　Gann's。transfer　of　funds。out　of　the　United　Suites。　My　interview　with　Elinor　Smith　is。the　most　interesting　I’ve　ever　conducted。　She　represents　the　history　of　aviation。　She　was。the　youngest　professional　pilot；　with　a　pilot’s。license　signed　by　none　other　than　the　father　of　aviation；　Wilbur　Wright。　Gann　and　Elinor　spent　months。preparing　for　her　solo　flight　attempt　to　Rome　from　New　York。City。　Clearly；　Gann　had　hoped　to　find　a　route　by。air　to　Egypt　to　pursue　his。research　（a　connection　that　will　be　explained　more　clearly　in　a　moment）。　Unfortunately；　because　of　the　exorbitant　costs。during　the　deepening　depression；　the　plane　was。eventually　sold；　to　Amelia　Earhart　no　less。　The　lost　opportunity　to　break　Charles。Lindburgh’s。record　for　the　longest　solo　flight　was。Elinor's。greatest　disappointment；　though　at　one　time　she　held　even　aviation　record　within　the　continental　area　of　the　United　States。　Gann　never　forgot　this。and　upon　his。passing；　he　gave　Elinor　a　gift　of　tremendous　value；　the　significance　of　which　she　admitted　was。hard　to　fully　prehend。　Without　even　knowing　it；　she　held　the　key　to　Gann’s。methods。　Some　day　Smith's。full　story　needs。to　be　told；　but　her　greatest　contribution　to　the　followers。of　W。D。　Gann　was。the　old　black。leather　suitcase　secured　by　two　leather　straps；　which　became　a　gift　to　me　after　the　interview。　
To　understand　the　chart　work。of　W。D。　Gann；　one　must　study　the　man。　As。his。obituary　states；　Gann　was。a　32nd　degree　Freemason　of　the　Scottish　Rite　Order。　The　suitcase　Smith　passed　to　me　was。filled　with　the　source　graphics。taught　by　the　Freemasons。that　Gann　applied　to　his。chart　work。　The　teachings。of　the　Freemasons。are　so　pivotal　to　Gann’s。market　analysis。that　he　draws。the　insignia　of　the　Freemasons。on　the　cover　of　his。book。The　Tunnel　Thru　the　Air　（Lambert…Gann　Publishing；　1927）。　The　diving　airplanes。turn　into　set　squares。　The　insignia　itself　is。on　the　bottom　of　the　front　cover　at　an　exact　61。8　percent　ratio　from　the　left　corner。　Gann’s　pool　of　knowledge　from　the　Freemasons　was。the　source　of　his。market　analysis。methodology；　and　the　son　would　have　no　part　of　the　years。of　study　required　to　master　the　principles　and　concepts。　
The　Scottish　Rite　has。a　number　of　various。side　orders。such　as。the　Royal　Arch；　Rose…Croix；　Rosicrucian　Fellowship；　and　Knights。Templar。　The　European　orders。guarded　their　secret　teachings。and　Greater　Mysteries。with　punishment　of　death　should　one　openly　reveal　the　content。　The　teachings。can　be　traced　back　to　the　Egyptian　priests　who　trained　Pythagoras。and　Plato；　from　whom　the　philosophies。of　modern…day　civilization　emerged。　Pythagoras。is。credited　with　the　discovery；　around　580　BC；　of　the　golden　mean　ratio　of　1。618　through　sound　harmonics。　
As。a　32nd　degree　mason；　Gann's。standing　was。only　one　degree　less。than　the　leader　of　multiple　lodges；　and　he　was。bound　by　the　ancient　custom　of　secrecy。　Therefore；　in　order　to　openly　teach　his。market　analysis；　which　draws　on　the　Freemason　teachings；　he　wrote　in　a　veiled　language　and　used　his。son's　work。to　disguise　his。own。　The　student　armed　with　this　background　can　discern　in　his。writings。the　valiant　effort　he　made　to　reveal　all　he　knew。　Without　this。clarification；　the　market　brilliance　of　W。D。　Gann　bees。lost　in　a　tangled　veil　of　mystery　and　confusion。　It　is。ironic。that　the　material　within　Gann's。suitcase　was。passed　into　Smith's。hands。and　then　mine；　because　the　order's。teachings。are　denied　to　women。　
Gann　traveled　to　Egypt　not　only　to　study　the　historical　prices　of　cotton；　but　also—and　primarily—to　further　his。understanding　of　the　ancient　quadrivium。　The　word　is。derived　from　the　Latin　roots　quad　（four）　and　via　（ways；　roads）：　a　crossing　of　four　roads。of　study。　In　medieval　universities；　the　quadrivium　consisted　of　the　four　subjects：　arithmetic；　astronomy；　
geometry；　and　music。　These　disciplines。remain　within　the　body　of　knowledge　passed　on　by　the　Freemason　orders。　Gann’s。market　analysis。incorporates。all　four　disciplines。　
The　subject　of　mask。within　the　quadrivium　was。originally　the　classical　subject　of　harmonics；