股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第18章

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But　there　is。a　way　to　solve　the　problem。　Figure　5。12　shows。a　series。of　boxes。whose　corners。are　connected；　creating　a　cross。within　each　box。　Because　there　are　fifty…two　weeks。in　a　year；　the　weekly　chart　is。using　the　square　of　fifty…two。　But　if　you　look。closely　at　the　price　scale；　it　is。clear　that　one　box　does。not　cover　a　price　range　of　52。　Multiples。or　proportional　divisions。can　be　used　and　the　angles。within　the　original　square　of　fifty…two　still　retained　if　only　a　single　box　were　displayed　mapping　fifty…two　weeks。along　the　horizontal；　versus。52　against　the　vertical。　Although　one　large　box　is。not　useful；　four　boxes。and　sixteen　boxes。still　produce　the　same　angled　lines。across。the　chart。　When　the　internal　corners。are　connected；　the　grid　produces。both　positive　and　negative　true　geometric。angles。of　45o。　Therefore；　a　simple　solution　is。to　draw　the　Gann　boxes；　establish　a　true　45o　line；　and　then　remove　the　boxes。　The　outside　frame　of　each　box　is。a　fixed　cycle。　Gann　would　use　the　cycle　formed　by。the　Gann　boxes。in　several　ways；　including　further　subdivision　of　the　square　by　thirds。or　eighths。　However；　for　this。discussion　we　will　not　venture　down　that　road。　
The　Gann　angles。of　interest　are　the　1x1　（45o）；　1x2　（63。75o）；　1x4　（75o）；　and　1x8　（82。5o）；　and　occasionally　we　need　the　1x16　（86。25o）。　For　declines；　we　again　consider　1x1；　then　2x1　（26。25o　）；　4x1　（15o）；　8x1　（7。5o）；　and；　on　occasion；　16x1　（3；75o）。　Sometimes。the　1x3　and　3x1　are　used　with　angles。of　71。25o　and　18。75o　respectively。　Gann　discusses。these　angles。as。“moving…averages〃；　which　can　cause　confusion　in　modern　context　because　puters。allow　us。to　chart　true　moving　averages。derived　from　price　or　indicators。　In　this。discussion；　referencing　Gann　angles。will　serve　us。better。　

The　starting　placement　of　the　Gann　angles。in　Figure　5。12　will　raise　a　question　because　they　are　not　projected　from　blatant　price　lows。　Gann　teaches。that　a　sharp　decline；　as。an　example；　does。not　begin　a　new　trend　upward　at　the　price　low　of　the　decline。　The　price　low　is。the　conclusion　of　the　prior　bear　market　campaign。　The　start　of　the　new　trend　of　greatest　interest　is。the　first　secondary　pullback。　In　Figure　5。12；　Brent　crude　was。nearly　being　a　1
parabolic。rise；　so　the　Gann　angles。were　projected　from　pivots。marked　P　and　Q。　Why？　Notice　point　Q　is。on　a　vertical　and　horizontal　support　in　reference　to　the　box。　But　it　also　has。2
a　Mercury　retrograde　target　in　the　vertical　axis。for　time。　Had　you　created　a　Fibonacci　confluence　grid　in　the　chart　using　the　methods。defined　earlier；　this　area　would　have　been　major　support。　
We　also　have　one　other　clue　that　this。is。a　key　price　pivot。　Scan　the　horizontal　line　near　Q　to　the　left。　Under　this。level　is。a　dotted　line　that　bees　visible　at　the　far　left　with　the　label　“180　degrees。at　38。〃　The　180o　notation　is。important　because　point　Q　is。a　confluence　zone　within　the　chart。　Point　P　was。selected　after　setting　Q；　because　the　radiating　line　marked　P…1x4　tracked　the　price　trend　near　m　in　the　first　swing　up　from　point　P。　The　Gann　angle　P…1x1　also　supports。the　minor　pivot　at　point　m。　The　rise　is。identical　from　each　pivot　so　a　channel　forms。　The　market　high　stopped　directly　under　P…1x2；　or　under　the　channel　capped　with　a　bold　black。line。　The　actual　line　it　fails。at　is。radiating　from　a　start　at　point　P。　Gann　was。right　to　say　secondary　pivots。will　prove　to　be　of　paramount　importance　later　in　the　trend。　
3
The　channel　the　market　is。declining　toward　in　the　most　recent　data　is。formed　by　the　45o　angles。radiating　from　points　P　and　Q。　The　45o　angles。are　always。of　great　importance。　Notice　that　the　current　market　data　has。not　reached　the　bolder　of　the　nearest　underlying　box。frame。　Then　notice　that　the　outer　wall　of　the　box　coincides。with　when　Mercury　returns。to　direct　motion。　This。will　give　confluence　in　the　vertical　and　horizontal；　but　not　the　diagonal；　so　it　is。of　lesser　importance　than　the　confluence　that　formed　into　the　data　high　near　80。　
Finally；　with　respect　to　Figure　5。12；　we　made　careful　note　to　study　the　fine　horizontal　dotted　lines。the　market　was。respecting　in　Figure　5。11。　The　same　lines。in　soft　gray　are　present　in　Figure　5。12　and　have　labels。on　the　far…left　frame　of　the　chart。　The　most　recent　data　up　to　November　2006　show　the　market　is。respecting　the　45c　support　line　at　62　for　Brent　crude。　This。is。a　harmonic。series　of　price　targets。generating　upward　from　a　single　price　pivot。　The　calculations　are　derived　from　a　Harmonic　Gann　Wheel　called　the　Square　of　Nine。　It　is。a　calculator　with　very　special　properties。　
Figure　5。13　displays。a　monthly　chart　of　Occidental　Petroleum　（OXY）。　Cycles。other　than　retrograde　have　been　added　because　confluence　is。being　sought。　The　Gann　angles。are　again　used；　but　this。time　one　is。projected　from　the　zero　line；　which　aligns。with　a　secondary。retracement　above　in　the　data　series。　This。is。a　technique　described　in　Gann's。original　stock。market　course　and　a　good　place　for　a　new　student　to　begin。　We　can　see　the　1x4　angle　（75°）　bisects。a　horizontal　line　near　54　at　the　high。　Look。to　the　far　left　of　this。line　and　you　will　see　the　label　“360　degrees。at　53。89”。　The　angled　degrees。we　want　from　the　Gann　Wheel　calculator　are　45°；　90°；　120°；　180°；　240°；　270°；　315°。and　finally　a　full　cycle　at　360°。　This。is。a　harmonic。series。that　contains。some　of　the　Fibonacci。ratios。we　first　studied。　All　harmonic。scalesntain　Fibonacci　ratios；　but　not　all　Gann　projections。are　Fibonacci　numbers。　
The　reason　for　this　is。fully　explained　in　my　presentation　called　Great　Market　Technicians。of　the　21st　Century：　Galileo；　Fibonacci；　and　Beethoven。　This。is。a　multimedia　presentation　developed　for　the　Silver　Anniversary　of　the　Market　Technicians　Association。　（The　visuals。for　this。presentation　can　be　found　at　aeroinvest　in　our　chart　gallery。　The　full　presentation　with　audio　and　video　was。donated　to　the　Market　Technicians。Association　after　9/11　to　help　rebuild　the　library。　It　can　be　purchased　from　them　at　mta。）　The　taped　lecture　will　not　give　you　better　market　targets；　but　it　will　give　a　better　understanding　of　why　the　Gann　Wheel　is。a　harmonic。calculator　and　proves。key。market　swings。have　harmonic。relationships。　The　hard　angles。at　15°；　90°；　180°；　270°。and　360°。from　the　wheel　are　important；　but　none　more　so　than　a　full　cycle　at　360°。which　will　have　a　natural　logarithm　relationship　to　the　first　number　used　to　create　the　series。　In　Figure　
5。13　the　market　high　shows。in　respect　to　the　360　projection。　It　then　falls。swiftly　to　the　target　line　below　it　at　315°。　
These　charts。demonstrate　that　the　Gann　Wheel　can　be　plotted　directly　on　the　market　data；　making　Gann　analysis。far　less。labor　intensive　than　it　once　was。by　hand。　（More　information　about　the　step…by…step　methods　to　obtain　price　targets。from　a　Gann　Wheel　is。available　without　charge　on　my　Web　site　at　aeroinvest。）　
We　conclude　where　we　began；　because　the　decline　in　OXY　to　the　Gann　level　marked　315°。on　the　far　left　is。also　a　Fibonacci　confluence　zone。　A　multiple　overlap　developed　confluence　with　a　38。2　percent　and　50　percent　retracement　forming　at　43。　The　void　of　targets。between　54　and　44　gave　early　warning　about　the　character　of　the　decline　that　would　develop。　

Clearly；　the　confluence　zones。we　first　developed　using　just　Fibonacci　ratios。were　the　conceptual　beginnings　of　something　much　greater。　But　the　study　of　Gann　is。a　journey　down　many　rabbit　holes。of　knowledge。　Gann　analysts。will　find　a　book。written　by　Manly　P。　Hall　The　Secret　Teachings。of　All　Ages　（Philosophical　Research　Society；　1998）；　to　be　of　great　interest　in　their　pursuit　of　some　of　the　core　teachings。of　Freemasons。　We　begin　to　see　astounding　results。from　our　charts　and　beg　to　understand　why　this。is。so。　Gann　was。applying　the　secret　teachings。from　all　ages。that　led　lo　a　greater　wisdom。　When　the　many　fields。of　study　within　the　quadrivium　bee　clear　within　the　analytic。methods。of　W。D。　Gann；　the　revelation　bees。humbling；　because*　we　understand　win　Gann　restated　the　words。of　Solomon：　〃Knowledge　is。of　more　value　than　gold。〃　

CHAPTER　6　


Unlocking　Gann　
DAVID　E。　BOWDEN　
W。D。　Gann　made　his。reputation　by　making　market　calls。long　before　the　events。took　place。　Some　of　these　calls。proved　to　be　amazingly　prescient。　Some　of　them　were　wrong。　To　publish　a　market　top；　say；　twelve　months。in　advance　and　have　your　forecast　proved　correct　is。every　bit　as。thrilling　as。winning　a　gold　medal　at　the　Olympics—and　probably　rarer；　too。　To　know　where　the　market　is。going　presently　is。hard　enough。　Is　it　at　a　top？　Is　it　a　bottom；　or　is　it　in　the　middle　of　a　run？　These　questions。are　difficult　enough　to　answer　about　the　next　several　weeks；　never　mind　going　twelve　months。out。　Indeed；　sometimes。it's。a　big　enough　challenge　just　to　have　a　solid　opinion　after　event　without　being　asked　to　make　projections。that　hinge　on　events。that　haven't　happened　yet。　In　1989；　for　example；　some　twenty…six。years。after　the　fact；　Gore　Vidal　was。asked　what　he　believed　would　have　been　the　oute　had　Khrushchev　and　not　Kennedy　been　assassinated　in　1963。　Alter　some　thought；　he　replied；　〃With　history　one　can　never　be　certain；　but　I　think。I　can　safely　say。that　Aristotle　Onassis。would　not　have　married　Mrs。　Khrushchev。〃　
In　this。chapter；　I’ll　explain　in　detail　how　I　constructed—a　year　in　advance—　my　forecast　for　the　Australian　share　market　in　1989　and　why　I　went　to　the　trouble　of　getting　it　published。　Beyond　that；　I'll　share　with　you　my　experiences。of　being　both　right　and　wrong；　and　of　how　to　make　the　most　of　both。　
Choosing　Your　Path　
In　trading　there　are　few　paths。to　success。and　many　to　failure。　In　this。book；　individuals。who　have　been　involved　in　the　markets　for　a　considerable　time　share　their　secrets。　Each　goes。about　the　business。of　studying　the　markets。in　a　different　way；　but　you'll　find　some　mon　denominators　among　all　of　them。　
Many　professionals；　in　their　own　way；　have　used　the　rules。laid　down　by　W。D。　Gann　before　he　died　in　1955。　My　own　approach　to　the　use　of　Gann’s。rules。is　essentially　a　bination　of　things。I've　put　together　over　the　last　twenty　years。　
Some　of　these　methodse　from　authors。other　than　Gann；　and　some　are　rules。that　I've　developed　on　my　own。　Everything　I'm　sharing　with　you　here　has。worked　for　me；　but　none　of　it　was。apparent　from　the　start。　I　only　wish　someone　had　taken　the　time　to　explain　these　things。to　me　when　I　first　started　out。　
I　started　trading　late　in　1985。　My　training　consisted　of　trading　for　two　weeks。with　an　old　pro　whom　I　had　known　for　many　years。　He　was。my　mentor。　After　that；　I　was。on　my　own　and　I’ve　never　had　a　real　job　since。　During　my　introduction　to　trading；　my　tutor　and　I　spoke　about　the　works。of　W。D。　Gann；　but　he　had　little　faith　in　what　Gann　had　to　say。　For　some　reason；　there　seems。to　be　a　well…above…average　number　of　mathematical　and　grammatical　mistakes　in　the　lessons。left　by　W。D。　Gann。　But　I　focused　only　on　what　was。right；　discarding　what　was　wrong；　and　became　a　convert。　The　mistakes。never　bothered　me　much。　They　only　made　it　more　of　a　challenge　and　made　me　read　the　lessons。very。carefully。　I　thought　that　if　I　could　make　sense　out　of　just　one　section　of　Gann's。lessons；　I　would　be　ahead　of　the　crowd　and　could　move　on　from　there。　
Calculating。a　Range　
The　first　thing　I　worked　out　was。how　to　calculate　a　range　by　taking　the　lowest　point　that　the　market　had　traded　from　the　highest　point。　That　gave　me　a