股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第2章

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dent　of　the　markets。　

Introduction　
One　day　back　in　early。2001；　I　called　an　equity　salesperson　in　Chicago　to　ask。whether　he　would　be　interested　in　meeting　to　discuss。some　technical　analysis。techniques。　He　quickly。declined；　calling　technical　analysis。a　〃voodoo　science'*　and　arguing　that　it　was。fundamental　analysis。that　truly　drives。the　markets。　
Two　years。later；　I　received　a　call　from　that　same　salesperson。　He　had　had　a　major　change　of　heart。　He　invited　me　lo　visit　him　so　that　we　could　talk。about　technical　analysis。　I　wondered　what　had　made　him　change　his。mind。　He　said　that　his。clients。had　started　observing　charts；　and　that　if　he　wanted　to　keep　their　business。he　had　to　learn　how　to　speak。their　language。　
Traveling　around　the　United　States。and　Canada　to　discuss。technical　analysis。with　traders；　fund　managers；　analysis；　and　investors；　I　have　e　to　two　conclusions：　Market　participants。today　are　using　technical　analysis。more　than　ever　before；　and　most　of　them　are　struggling　to　identity　which　techniques。they　should　be　applying　to　their　markets　of　interest。　
Every　year；　I　find　myself　spending　increasingly　more　time　talking　to　portfolio　managers。who　are　using　a　hybrid　of　fundamental　and　technical　analysis。to　identify　potential　investments。　As。a　result；　I　get　more　and　more　calls　from　salespeople　and　sales。traders；　all　scrambling　to　understand　how　to　incorporate　technical　analysis。into　their　conversations。　
Here's。how　I　introduce　technical　analysis。to　those　newly　converted　to　the　technical　approach：　Fundamental　analysis。tells。you　the　〃what〃　and　the　〃why；〃　whereas。technical　analysis。tells。you　the　〃when〃　and　the　〃how。〃　Analyzing　a　pany's。financial　statements；　the　broad　economic。picture；　and　other　fundamental　factors。helps　investors。identify　which　securities。should　be　moving　based　on　market　environment。　But　when　you　look。at　a　price　chart；　you're　peeking　into　the　minds。of　millions。of　traders。to　gauge　their　collective　psychology。　What's。more；　you're　studying　trends。and　momentum　to　see　how　traders。have　reacted　to　historical　events。and　news。flow。　That's。why　investing　without　looking　at　a　chart　puts。you　at　a　major　disadvantage。　
One　of　the　questions。I　pose　at　the　beginning　of　seminars。is。〃Does。technical　analysis　work　because　people　use　it；　or　do　people　use　it　because　it　works？〃　The　first　part　of　that　question　positions。technical　analysis。as。a　self…fulfilling　prophecy—if　enough　people　expect　a　certain　price　movement　and　make　trades。in　anticipation　of　that　movement；　then　the　price　will　move　as。a　result　of　their　own　actions。　The　second　part　suggests。that　there　is。in　fact　value　in　technical　analysis。as。a　method　of　breaking　down　investor　sentiment　and　market　psychology。over　lime。　
All　of　the　authors。in　this。book。have　developed　certain　techniques。that　have　helped　them　to　successfully　trade　and　analyze　various。global　markets。　This。book　is。designed　to　bring　their　ideas。together　and　help　von　draw　on　their　experiences。and　incorporate　their　concepts。into　your　own　trading。　
In　planning　the　book；　I　realized　that　although　more　and　more　investors。had　broadened　their　approach　to　allow　for　international　markets；　the　existing　technical　analysis。literature　was。still　quite　localized。　In　meeting　with　technical　analysts。and　traders。from　around　the　world　and　from　organizations。such　as。the　Market　Technicians。Association；　I've　learned　that　each　region　has。its。own　experts。who　have　successfully　tailored　their　technical　strategies　to　the　local　markets。　
The　goal　for　the　book。was。to　assemble　some　of　the　top　minds。in　the　field　from　all　parts　of　the　world　and　have　them　share　their　insights。into　how　price　and　volume　analysis。can　help　investors。identify　profitable　trading　opportunities。　The　end　result　is。a　powerful　illustration　of　how　interrelated　the　financial　markets。really　are：　it's。also　a　testament　to　the　global　reach　of　technical　analysis。as。a　language　of　the　markets。　
Each　chapter　in　Breakthroughs。in　Technical　Analysis。is。intended　to　stand　independently。　You　can　study　a　single　chapter；　and　then　apply　those　concepts。to　your　own　charts。and　markets。before　you　move　on　to　another。　Keep　in　mind　that　although　the　author　may　be　writing　about；　say；　Australian　index　futures　or　U。S。　Treasury　spreads；　the　concepts　discussed　can　be　readily　applied　to　any。market；　and　often　on　different　time　periods　than　those　discussed　in　the　chapter。　
We　start　with　Ted　Hearne's。discussion　of　a　technique　called　〃Drummond　Geometry〃　as。applied　to　the　foreign　exchange　markets。　You'll　find　it's。a　great　breakdown　of　how　open/high/low/close　data　can　be　used　to　identify　support　and　resistance；　meaning　levels。at　which　the　price　tends。to　reverse。　His。examples。demonstrate　the　value　of　studying　different　lime　dames。（that　is：　daily；　weekly；　monthly；　etc。）　to　see　how　short…term　price　moves。flit　into　the　long…term　trend。　
Tom　DeMark。goes。to　great　lengths。to　analyze　price　trends。and　ways。in　which　markets。reverse　direction。　In　his。chapter；　DeMark。discusses　one　of　his。market…timing　techniques；　TD　bo　。。　Although　many　traders。have　worked　with　TD　Sequential　。；　one　of　DeMark's。other　indicators；　this。chapter　shows。when　and　why。TD　bo's。more　conservative　approach　to　trend　exhaustion　can　help　an　investor　identity　low…risk　trading　opportunities。　He　also　presents。methods。to　tweak。both　these　techniques。to　make　them　more　aggressive；　methods。that　can　often　give　an　early　warning　of　a　trend　reversal。　
Nicole　Elliott　breaks。down　a　traditional　Japanese　technique　called　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo；　in　which　price　data　is　used　to　create　a　series。of　indicators。to　measure　the　strength　of　a　trend；　as。well　as。potential　support　and　resistance　areas。　This。trend…following　technique　is。used　heavily　by　Japanese　investors。and　has　grown　in　popularity　in　the　United　States。and　Europe。　Many　people　who　see　this。technique　for　the　first　time　are　overwhelmed　by　the　amount　of　information　the　chart　provides。　Elliot　does。an　exceptional　job　of　cutting　through　that　noise　to　explain　the　true　value　of　Ichimoku　charts。　
Yosuke　Shimizu　takes　us。through　the　world　of　candlestick。analysis　from　a　Japanese　perspective。　Many　of　you　may　have　heard　of　or　even　used　patterns。with　peculiar　names。such　as。〃abandoned　baby〃　or　〃hanging　man。〃　Shimizu…san　explains。why　these　names。are　used　and　how　they　can　add　great　value　to　your　investment　approach。　His。chapter；　translated　from　Japanese；　provides。original　insight　into　why　traders。have　used　these　techniques。for　centuries；　in　a　language　that　evokes　the　spirit　of　the　region。　
We　return　to　a　U。S。　perspective　with　Constance　Brown；　who　in　her　chapter　shares。with　us。her　powerful　charting　acumen。　Incorporating　Gann　analysis；　Fibonacci　retracements；　and　her　own　proprietary　indicators；　she　has。developed　a　sophisticated　methodology　for　trading　market　moves。more　effectively。　Brown　graciously　includes。the　formula　behind　her　unique　indicator；　the　posite　Index；　and　demonstrates　how　to　efficiently　bine　technical　approaches。　
David　Bowden　takes。us。to　the　Australian　markets。through　his。own　trading　experiences　using　Gann　analysis—a　series。of　technical　indicators。that　are　often　misunderstood　because　of　their　mystical　nature。　Walking　us。through　his。successes。and　failures。in　anticipating　tops　and　bottoms；　Bowden's。discussion　of　the　cyclical　nature　of　the　markets　is。a　rare　treat。　Reading　this。chapter；　you'll　rediscover　the　value　of　the　relationship　between　time　and　price　and　its　importance　in　market　fluctuation。　
Traditional　equity　investors。are　increasingly。including　options。in　their　portfolios。as。a　way　of　managing　risk。and　of　raising　returns。by　the　power　of　leverage。　In　his。chapter；　Bernie　Schaeffer　gives。a　well…written　overview　of　options。strategies。and　then　moves。on　to　analyzing　volatility　lo　identify　profitable　options　plays。　If　you’ve　been　considering　incorporating　options。into　your　investment　approach；　you'll　want　to　read　this。chapter　first。　
From　Europe；　we　have　Jeremy　du　Plessis。with　a　chapter　on　point　and　figure　charts；　which　are　frequently　used　in　futures。and　modities。exchanges。　Du　Plessis。shows。how　these　charts。have　evolved　to　better　identify　support　and　resistance　levels；　breakout　points；　and　price　objectives。for　any　market。　He　wraps。up　with　a　discussion　on　applying　conventional　technical　indicators。to　point　and　figure　charts；　a　concept　that　even　longtime　point…and…figure　devotees。will　find　pelling。　
Robin　Mesch　is。one　of　the　leading　experts。on　Market　Profile　。；　a　method　of　analyzing　the　distribution　of　trades。throughout　the　day　to　identify　where　supply　and　demand　will　e　into　play。　Investors。who　use　this。technique　are　familiar　with　how　price　action　often　forms。a　bell　curve　by。the　end　of　the　day。　Mesch　describes。how　to　apply　this。technique　to　price　spreads；　showing　how　anyone　trading　security　pairs　can　effectively。gauge　when　a　spread　is　poised　to　widen　or　lighten。　
We　conclude　with　Robin　Griffith’s。presentation　of　cycle…related　investment　strategies；　from　multiyear　and　seasonal　cycles。in　the　global　equity　markets。to　stop…losses；　scaling　trades；　and　money…management　techniques。　He　presents。his。ten　mandments。for　trading；　a　solid　guide　to　intelligently　tackling　the　game。　
The　title　Breakthroughs。in　Technical　Analysis：　New　Thinking　from　the　World's。Top　Minds。truly　captures。what　we　tried　to　acplish　in　bringing　the　insights。of　these　experts。together。　The　ten　contributors。are　among　the　leading　technical　analysts。in　the　world；　and　they　all　demonstrate　specific。techniques。they've　used　with　great　success。over　time。　Some　of　our　contributors。present　new；　techniques。that　they've　developed　or　refined　in　the　last　couple　years。　Others。take　methodologies。that　have　been　used　for　decades。and　show　how　they　can　be　adapted　to　today's。global　financial　markets。　Regardless。of　their　geographical　location；　professional　background；　or　preferred　trading　strategies；　these　experts。make　one　central　theme　clear　in　every　chapter：　Technical　analysis。is　a　vital　ponent　of　any　trader's。tool　kit。　An　informed　investor　is。defined　by　his。ability　to　incorporate　all　available　market　data　into　his。daily　trading　routine；　and。　most　important；　he　has。to　take　into　account　the　investor　psychology　inherent　in　price　charts。　
We　believe　this。book　is。a　useful　resource　for　identifying　techniques。that　can　add　tremendous。value　to　your　investment　strategy；　and　we're　convinced　that　you'll　enjoy　reading　it　too。　
—David　Keller；　CMT　February　21；　2007　New　York。
CHAPTER　1　


Drummond。Geometry：　Picking　Yearly　Highs　and。Lows　in。Interbank　Forex　Trading　
TED　HEARNE　
What　if　you　could　predict　the　yearly。high　and　the　yearly。low　in　a　major　currency？　If；　at　the　start　of　the　year；　you　could　have　a　definite　idea　where　the　high　will　form　in　the　Japanese　yen　or　the　Canadian　dollar　or　the　euro？　Or　if　you　knew　where　the　market　was。headed　many。months。ahead　of　time？　Making　an　educated；　accurate　forecast　of　next　year's。high　and　low　in　every　currency　is　surely　the　dream　of　every　trader　—　a　fantasy　of　omniscience　and　unlimited　power　over　the　markets。　
In　trading；　as。in　war　or　building　suspension　bridges。or　performing　transplant　surgery　or　creating　a　new　auto　design　or　any　plex　undertaking；　success。is。a　function　of　many。different　elements—a　bination　of　having　the　proper　tools；　the　necessary　knowledge；　and　the　appropriate　personal　characteristics。　If　you　would　like　to　be　one　of　the　few　who　make　accurate；　high…proba