股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第20章

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When　I　got　a　grip　on　price；　I　saw　the　current　tops；　bottoms；　and　ranges。were　only。reflections。of　previous。tops；　bottoms；　and　ranges。　It　was。like　looking　down　a　hall　of　mirrors；　reflecting　over　and　over　again。　That's。how　I　would　get　my　calls。right。　（Of　course；　there　were　times　when　I　woke　up　to　what　was。going　on　only　well。after　the　event。）　I　found　that　this。approach　worked　equally　well　on　both　time　and　price。　Sometimes；　I　found　myself　working　with　both。　For　example；　say　the　market　moved　up　or　down　180　points；　I　might　find　there　would　be　a　major　change　in　trend　in　179　to　182　days　from　the　start　of　that　cycle。　Sometimes；　the　market　might　move　up　exactly　180　points。in　182　days。and　I　would　say　time　and　price　were　square。　I　will　give　you　some　examples　of　how　I　came　to　grips。with　that　phenomenon。　
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Although　Time　by　Degrees。was。not　a　stand…alone　indicator　at　that　stage　of　the　game；　it　backed　up　my　work。on　ranges。and　time　frames。　I　started　to　count　everything。　At　this。time；　all　of　my　charts。were　done　by　hand　and　many　of　my　calculations。were　written　on　them。　I　started　the　pany　called　Safety　in　the　Market。　in　1989　because　everyone　wanted　to　know　how　I　was。doing　my　calculations。　Originally；　the　pany　was。no　great　money…making　idea。　But　at　least　I　was。getting　my。trading　organized。　The　lessons。I　learned　from　Gann's。work。were　based　on　everything　I　have　put　into　this。chapter。　
If　you　want　to　get　this。right；　the　first　thing　you　must　accept　is。that　there　is。an　order　to　even　thing；　wars；　weather；　politics—the　lot。　But　there　is。no　money　in　wars。or　weather　and　I　cannot　stand　politics；　so　I　stuck　to　the　markets。　I　started　to　see　that　on　one　side　of　the　markets　everything　seemed　to　revolve　around　90°；　180°；　and　360°。and　time　frames。　Everything。　You　just　have　to　look。hard　enough。　I　found　the　market　was。ever　expanding。　I　hasten　to　add　that　I　was。not　always。in　front　of　it。　But　neither　was。W。D。　Gann。　I　found　that　a　one…hour　chart　was。like　a　sixty…year　cycle。　One　hundred　eighty…two　days。were　like　180　months；　which　in　turn　were　like　180　years。　All　of　this。is。very　relevant　both　to　the　market　and　to　the　current　war　cycle；　as。I'll　explain　later。　

Forecasting　
The　chart　shown　in　Figure　6。1　is。the　point　at　which　I　started　trading　in　1985。　The　yearly。top　came　in　on　October　21。　That　was。the　day　I　took　my　first　trade　under　my　own　steam。　You　can　see；　as。I　did；　that　a　couple　of　the　market　turns。figured　through　Time　by　Degrees。worked　quite　well。　From　the　November　19；　1985；　low　the　market　ran　up　exactly　168　days。to　May　6；　1986。　The　market　then　did　a　50　percent　retracement　in　time　by　running　down　for　eighty…three　days。to　July　28；　1986。　（Eighty…four　days。would　have　been　an　exact　50　percent　retracement；　but　that　would　have　put　the　market　out　of　whack。with　the　important　dates）。　That　is。when　I　first　came　across。the　date　of　July　28；　which　is。one　of　my　〃war　dates”。　The　number　of　hours　in　a　week。is。168。　It’s　said　that　God　made　the　world　in　six　days。and　on　the　seventh　day　He　rested。　Six　days。represent　144　hours。　Fourteen　years。equal　168　months。　All　of　this。has。meaning　in　terms　of　minutes；　hours；　days；　and　weeks。　In　any　case；　the　market　got　itself　back。into　balance　by　running　up　169　days　till　January　13；　1987。　This。was。the　first　major　top　that　I　had　both　forecast　and　traded。　

The　chart　in　Figure　6。2　shows。equal　time　frames　of　eighty…three　days。and　201　days　working　in　2006　and　2007。　

The　chart　in　Figure　6。3　shows。us。Time　by　Degrees。working　after　the　Crash　of　‘87；　which　was。probably　the　most　volatile　market　well　ever　see；　I　actually。raised　the　money　to　buy　a　new　house；　the　first　since　I　had　gone　broke　in　1986；　by　trading　into　that　low　on　February　10；　1988。　It　was。one　of　the　few　times。I　found　trading　easy。　I　had　picked　the　top　in　1987　and　traded　it。　A　few　traders。and　my　broker　were　aware　of　this。　I　used　to　give　all　of　the　credit　to　W。D。　Gann；　but　I　was。using　a　lot　of　market　smarts。that　I　had　picked　up　in　any。number　of　places。　
A　fair　proportion　was。my　own；　but　I　must　give　thanks。to　all　of　the　masters。who；　along　with　Gann；　came　before　me。　Thankfully；　they　left　a　path；　which　I　was。able　to　recognize　and　follow。　As。can　be　seen　in　the　chart　in　Figure　6。4；　the　technique　is。even　bit　as。relevant　in　2005　as。it　was。in　1987。　
Even　after　the　'87　Crash　there　were　some　traders。still　knocking　Gann—and　me；　for　that　matter。　You　might　think。that　people　would　just　rejoice　in　their　good　fortune　and　keep　trading　the　market。　But　real　life　is。not　that　simple。　People　often　don't　see　things。that　clearly—　especially　when　things。are　not　all　black。and　white　and　especially　when　ego　and　emotions　are　involved。　But　I　was。learning　by　doing。　I　had　all　of　the　cycles。for　the　Share　Price　Index；　from　the　birth　of　the　contract　in　1983；　marked　on　my　charts；　and　in　most　cases。I　knew　when；　where；　how；　and　why　they　would　repeat。　There　is。no　doubt　that　the　trick。is。to　identify　the　cycle　before　it　happens。　A　well…trained　monkey　on　a　stick。can　do　an　adequate　job　of　describing　something　after　it　has。happened。　

A　trading　sequence　isn't　always。as。simple　as。in　1987…88；　but　this。was。when　everything　came　together　for　me。　I　had　not　yet　started　writing　articles。or　doing　presentations　at　that　time；　but　traders。were　beginning　to　look。over　my　shoulder　and；　in　many　cases；　follow　my。even　move。　More　than　a　little　bit　irritating　were　the　phone　calls。I’d　get　when　I　was。wrong；　telling　me　how　dumb　I　was。and　how　this。Gann　stuff　did　not　work。　When　I　was。right；　there　would　be　no　calls。　
I　was。living　more　than　well　from　my　trading；　so　I　decided　to　put　a　Gann　article　into　a　financial　newsletter；　just　to　prove　how　all　this　stuff　worked。　I　sent　off　a　one…page　article　titled　〃Safety　in　the　Market〃　to　Research　Technology；　which　was。the　biggest　supplier　of　market　data　in　Australia　at　the　time。　Plenty　of　traders。knew　that　I　had　picked　various。tops。and　bottoms。in　the　markets；　but　I　had　no　real　proof　except　for　my　trading　statements。　I　was。not　publicizing　my　work。for　the　money。　In　the　article；　which　I　wrote　late　in　1988；　I　decided　to　go　out　on　a　limb　and　nominate　the　day　of　the　top　for　the　Australian　Share　Price　Index　contract　in　1989。　I　was。willing　to　put　myself　to　the　test。　In　the　article；　I　explained　how　the　yearly。top　for　1988　had　occurred　by　squaring　time　in　price。　I　have　already　said　dial　a　well…trained　monkey　on　a　stick。can　describe　events。after　they　happen。　So　we　can　put　my　1988　call　in　that　basket。　But　for　1989；　I　said；　〃So；　of　course；　the　next　question　is。what　is。going　to　happen　in　1989。　I　see　a　volatile　year　ahead；　similar　to　1988；　with　a　major　top　due　on　October　3；　with　the　reversal　and　panic。in　the　market。　Short　positions。should　be　covered　on　about　November　16　and　December　18”。　This。forecast；　along　with　some　notes。on　the　Dow　Jones　Index；　was　published　in　the　United　States。in　the　February　edition　of　the　Gann　and　Elliott　Wave　magazine。　How　did　I　do？　You　can　bet　I　did　pretty　well；　or　I　would　not　be　writing　this。chapter。　The　high　of　the　year　in　Australia　came　in　on　October　4；　1989；　at　a　price　of　exactly　1855；　which　was。exactly。what　I　had　calculated　twelve　months。earlier。　That　price　was。the　highest　our　market　traded　for　a　number　of　years。　It　was。followed　by　what　was。called　〃the　crash　of　1989；〃　not　to　be　confused　with　the　real　Crash　of　1987。　My　dates。for　November　and　December　also　came　in　very　close。　By　that　time；　I　was。doing　a　few　seminars；　called　〃Safety。in　the　Market。。　After　the　low　of　the　year　came　in　on　April　7；　1989；　it　reinforced　my　forecast　top　of　October　4；　1989　（see　Figure　6。5）。　This。was。presented　to　the　attendees　of　my　seminar　and　was。recorded　on　video。　

My　method　for　predicting　the　tops。and　bottoms。was。simple　and　consistent　with　how　I　made　my　trading　decisions；　as。I’ve　already　outlined。　I　don't　regard　either　Time　by　Degrees　or　price　action　reaction　as。a　stand…alone　indicator。　But　as。can　be　seen　here；　when　they。independently　agree；　there　can　be　a　window　of　opportunity。　
My。decision　was。based　first　on　my　Time　by　Degrees。theory。　October　4；　the　actual　day　of　the　top；　came　in　180　days。from　the　low　of　the　year；　April　7；　1989。　It　was。also　180　weeks。from　the　high　on　April　21；　1986。　That　was。the　first　of　the　double　tops。and　it　came　in　at　1254。5。　It　was。180　months。from　the　major　low　on　September　27；　1974；　which　was。felt　worldwide。　These　time　frames　indicated　a　major　change　in　trend。　
The　process。was。also　based　on　the　theory　that　time　and　price　ranges。repeat。　The　all…time　low　of　our　Australian　Share　Price　Index　contract　came　in　on　March　1；　1983；　at　a　price　of　458　exactly。　The　first　major　top　came　in　1；162　days。later　on　May　6；　1986；　at　a　price　of　1255　exactly。（half　a　point　higher　than　April　21；　1986；　the　other　date　in　the　double　top）。　The　market　at　this。time　was。trading　in　decimal　points。　So　we　had　a　time　frame　of　1162　days。and　a　price　range　of　1255　minus　458；　which　is。797　points。　The　next　major　low；　as。I've　already。mentioned；　occurred　on　July　28；　1986；　at　a　price　of　1058。　So　if　we　are　looking　for　a　future　price　target；　
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War　and　Market　Cycles　
Throughout　this。chapter；　I　have　made　references。to　wars。and　their　relation　to　Gann’s　work。　I　first　became　interested　in　the　war　cycles。after　reading　Gann's。1927　novel　Tunnel　Thai　the　Air；　or　Looking　Back。From　1940；　in　which　he　wrote　that　the　United　States。was。about　to　be　involved　in　an　Armageddon…style　war；　starting　in　April　1930。　He　described　the　Japanese　planes。bombing　the　American　fleet　in　the　Pacific。as。the　start　of　the　war。　More　than　a　decade　before　December　7；　1941；　this。is。how　he　portrayed　the　United　States。being　dragged　into　the　war：　
The　United　States。government　fearing　that　Japan　would　make　the　first　attack。on　the　
Pacificast；　either　around　Los。Angeles。or　San　Francisco；　rushed　the　battle　fleet　to　the　
Pacific。　As。soon　as。the　battleships。cruised　into　the　Pacific；　Japan　attacked　from　the　air　with　the　
noiseless。airplanes。and　began　dropping　deadly　bombs　from　great　heights。　The　antiaircraft　guns。from　the　decks。of　the　battleships。were　powerless。to　reach　the　bombing　planes。at　such　great　heights。　Defeat　was。swift　and　severe　and　only　a　few　of　the　battleships。escaped　plete　destruction　from　the　first　attack。　
His。timing　was。off；　but　I　can　understand　that　because　I　know　how　he　did　his。calculations。　

This。bookpelled　me　in　1988；　sixty。years。later；　to　look。at　the　relationship　between　the　United　States。and　Japan　and　see　if　this。knowledge　could　give　me　an　advantage　in　trading。　In　1986；　Tunnel　Thru　the　Air　led　me　to　natural　time　because　the　book　contained　a　lot　of　trading　examples。　I　found　that　the　United　States。led　Japan　by　an　exact　time　frame。　This。time　frame　varied　with　different　situations。and　industries。　For　example；　in　the　auto　industry；　Japan　trails。the　United　States。by　about　twenty　years。and　Taiwan　follows。Japan。　The　American　stock　market　seemed　to　lead　its。Japanese　counterpart　by　an　approximate　time　frame　of　sixty　years。　My　theory　was。that　after　the　'87　Crash；　when　all　of　the　markets。worldwide　looked　shaky；　Japan　still　had　a　little　more　than　two　years。left　in　the　bull　market。　As。I　was。doing　my。work；　the　Japanese　market　kept　defying　the　trend　and　going　up。　The　Japanese　market　topped　on　December　27；　1989。　Once　that　top　was。in　place；　I　could　expect　the　same　rundown