股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第26章

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One　of　the　greatest　innovations。in　point　and　figure　charting　has。been　the　development　of　log　scale　point　and　figure　charts。　They　were　introduced　in　the　early　1980s；　when　technical　analysis。software　for　PCs。made　the　calculations。possible。　Using　a　fixed　box　size　of　1　point　or　10　points。is。fine　if　the　price　remains　within　a　reasonable　range；　but　it's。of　little　use　when　the　price　rises。or　falls。by　large　percentages。　To　acmodate　increasing　prices；　point　and　figure　analysts。used　to　（some　still　do）　change　the　box　size—the　value　of　the　Xs。and　Os—at　specific。price　levels。　For　example；　when　the　price　is。between　0　and　5；　a　box　size　of　0。25　is　used；　when　the　price　is。between　5　and　10；　a　box　size　of　0。5　is。used；　and　so　on；　with　the　box。size　changing　at　certain　price　levels。　Between　50　and　100；　the　box　size　would　be　1；　and　between　100　and　200；　it　would　be　2。　This。design　has　the　effect　of　producing　a　pseudo　log　scale　chart；　but　at　the　same　time；　it　creates　problems。　First；　45o　trend　lines；　which　must　pass。through　these　box　size　step…up　points；　are　promised；　second；　point　and　figure　targets。bee　more　difficult　to　establish　if　the　box　size　changes。part　way　through　the　counting　column。　
The　puterization　of　point　and　figure　charts。enables。true　log　scale　point　and　figure　charts。to　be　drawn　by　increasing　the　value　of　each　box　by。a　fixed　percentage。　This。means。the　percentage　change　throughout　the　chart　isnstant；　but　the　box　size　at　each　level　varies。　So　instead　of　a　box　size　measured　in　the　traditional　fixed　number　of　points；　the　box　size　is。measured　as。a　percentage。　For　example；　if　a　box　size　of　1　percent　is。chosen；　the　size　of　the　box　above　is。1　percent　larger　than　the　box　below；　or　1。01　times。the　size　of　the　box　below。　
Point　and　figure　construction　is。about　setting　a　scaling　framework。before　the　chart　is。drawn。　With　fixed　box　size　（arithmetic。scale）　point　and　figure　charts；　the　box　size　determines。the　chart　grid。　So　a　box　size　of　5　points　results。in　grid　values。of　5；　10；　15；　20　points；　whereas。a　box　size　of　10　points。results。in　grid　values。of　10；　20；　30；　40　points。　With　a　percentage　box　size　（log　scale）　chart；　however；　the　grid　is。determined　by　increasing　the　value　of　each　grid　point　by　the　percentage。　Mathematically；　it's。easier　to　do　this。by　taking　the　natural　log　of　the　starting　price；　as。well　as。the　percentage　increment；　and　adding　the　logged　increment　to　the　logged　starting　price　to　achieve　the　new　grid。　Once　the　grid　has。been　obtained；　the　chart　data　are　logged　as。well　and　the　chart　plotted　using　the　logged　values。　Finally；　the　logged　values。and　grid　levels。are　anti…logged　to　bring　the　chart　back。to　real　prices。　The　result　is。a　true　log　scale　point　and　figure　chart　in　which　the　box　size　grows　
smoothly　as。the　price　rises；　thereby　catering　to　the　
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example；　at　75；　the　box　size　is。1。5；　whereas。at　5　it　is。0。1。　There　is。a　smooth；　not　a　stepped；　increase　in　the　box　value　as。the　price　rises。and　falls。　

In　paring　the　two　charts；　notice　the　large　swings。in　the　arithmetic。chart　around　the　75　level；　indicating　that　the　box　size　is。too　small。　Notice　the　lack　of　sensitivity　around　the　10　level；　indicating　a　box　size　that　is。too　large。　The　log　scale　chart　adjusts。for　this。automatically；　because　it　is。a　chart　of　constant　percentage　change　rather　than　constant　point　change。　Trend　lines。are　valid　on　both　charts；　but　they　pass。through　different　points。　Point　and　figure　targets。（not　shown）　will　also　be　different　because　the　column　lengths。and　pattern　widths。are　different　as。are　the　values。of　the　boxes。within　the　columns。　
The　decision　whether　to　use　log　or　arithmetic　scale　is　no　different　from　that　with　bar　or　line　charts。　Log　is。better　for　longer…term　analysis　and　when　the　price　has。risen　exponentially。　Arithmetic。is。better　for　the　shorter…term　and　when　the　price　is　within　a　range。　Some　instruments。have　linear　trends；　and　some　have　exponential　trends。　The　simple　rule　is。to　look。at　both；　and　you　will　soon　see　
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are　not　important；　but　the　level　of　the　target　is。　A　number　of　targets　have　been　placed　on　the　chart　so　you　can　see　the　levels。predicted　and　how　these　help　to　confirm　or　reject　the　trend。　Notice　during　the　uptrend　in　relative　strength　that　all　upside　counts。are　exceeded　and　no　downside　count　is。achieved　until　the　top　in　October　2002；　when　the　upside　count　of　331　is。negated　and　downside　counts。are　achieved。　There　is。one　outstanding　downside　count　of　123；　indicating　that　there　is。more　downside　potential　on　the　relative　strength。　
The　chart　in　Figure　8。8　is　a　log　scale　chart　using　a　box　size　of　1　percent。　It　is。suggested　that　you　use　log　scale　charts。for　relative　strength　so　you　can　match　these　with　the　same　percentage　box　size　on　the　price　chart；　ensuring　that　you're　looking　at　the　same　time　horizon。　You　may　look。at　a　shorter　time　horizon　by　changing　the　box　size　to　0。5　percent　or　even　0。25　percent。　

Moving　Averages；　Parabolic　SAR；　and　Bollinger　Bands　
Another　recent　development　in　point　and　figure　charts。is。the　addition　of　moving　averages。following　the　technique　discussed　by　Kenneth　Tower　in　his。chapter　on　point　and　figure　charts。in　New　Thinking　in　Technical　Analysis。（Bloomberg　Press；　2000）。　Tower　suggests。that　the　length　of　the　moving　average　be　measured　in　columns　rather　than　in　days　or　weeks；　allowing　moving　averages。to　be　used　effectively　on　point　and　figure　charts。　The　purpose　of　using　moving　averages。on　point　and　figure　charts。is　to　assist　in　defining　the　trend　and　therefore　in　accepting　or　rejecting　point　and　figure　buy　and　sell　signals。　Because　signals。are　more　objective　on　3…box　charts；　the　use　of　moving　averages。tends。to　be　easier；　although　there　is。no　reason　why　1…box　charts。can't　be　used　just　as　effectively。　Trend　direction　is。best　defined　by　two　moving　averages。of　different　lengths。　When　the　shorter　length　crosses　above　the　longer　length；　the　chart　is。placed　on　a　buy　alert。　The　buy　signal　occurs。on　the　next　point　and　figure　double…top　signal。　
Determining　the　best　lengths。to　use　is。a　trial　and　error；　or　optimization　process。　A　good　rule　of　thumb　is。to　use　lengths。that　are　half　those　you　use　on　line　charts；　because　in　calculating　moving　averages。on　point　and　figure；　the　average　of　each　column　is。calculated　before　the　moving　average　is。calculated。　Average　lengths。can　be　close　to　one　another　because　a　crossover　is。not　a　signal　but　rather　an　alert。　Crossovers。have　to　be　reconfirmed　by　the　point　and　figure　signal。　
Panel　A　in　Figure　8。9　is。a　2％　x　3　log　scale　chart　of　the　Walt　Disney　Co。；　with　5…and　8…column　exponential　moving　averages。　When　the　5　crosses。below　the　8；　
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Panel　B　in　Figure　8。9　is。the　same　log　scale　chart　of　Walt　Disney　but　with　a　Wilder　parabolic。SAR　with　an　acceleration　factor　of　。02。　The　parabolic　is。a　stop…and…reverse　system；　in　which　the　parabolic。line　starts　away　from　the　price　but　then　accelerates。toward　it　as。the　trend　matures。　Its。use　with　point　and　figure　is。the　same　as。that　for　moving　averages：　The　parabolic。switch　from　long　to　short　places。you　on　alert；　and　the　next　double…bottom　sell　signal　is。taken　at　point　（c）。　The　parabolic。switch　to　long　places。you　on　alert　to　take　the　next　double…top　buy　at　point　（d）。　Notice　that　immediately　after　the　buy　at　point　（d）；　the　price　retraced　but　did　not　trigger　the　parabolic。　
Another　innovation　in　point　and　figure　charts。has。been　the　use　of　Bollinger　bands；　because　they　show　a　number　of　things。that　are　not　immediately　apparent　from　the　plain　point　and　figure　chart。　These　are　trend　strength；　overbought　and　oversold　situations；　as　well　as。areas。of　low　volatility。　The　standard　Bollinger　settings。are　20　days。and　2　standard　deviations；　but　with　point　and　figure　charts。it　is。suggested　that　10　columns。and　2　standard　deviations。be　used。　
Panel　C　in　Figure　8。9　shows。a　0。5％　x　3　log　scale　of　DuPont；　with　a　set　of　10…column　Bollinger　bands。　The　strength　of　the　uptrend　is。indicated　by　the　price　remaining　above　the　moving　average　and　continually　touching　the　upper　band。　In　the　same　way；　the　strength　of　the　downtrend　is。indicated　by　the　price　continually　touching　the　lower　band。　Failure　to　cling　to　the　outer　bands。is　a　signal　that　the　trend　is。weakening　as　seen　at　the　top　when　the　column　of　Xs。fails。to　reach　the　upper　band。　Point　and　figure　shows。accumulation　or　distribution　by　congesting　sideways。　The　Bollinger　bands。emphasize　this。by　converging　into　what　Bollinger　calls　〃the　squeeze；〃　indicating　very　low　volatility。and　the　probability　of　a　sharp　move。　The　width　of　the　bands　during　the　squeeze　is。easy　to　set　on　a　log　scale　point　and　figure　chart　because　the　number　of　boxes。between　the　bands。is。the　percentage　difference。　In　the　chart　in　panel　C；　you　can　clearly　see　the　squeeze　occurring　during　the　congestion　after　the　uptrend；　where　the　bands　converge　to　four　boxes；　or　2　percent　apart。　
Sometimes；　however；　the　squeeze　is。difficult　to　see　in　3…box　reversal　charts；　so　if　you　see　a　potential　congestion　pattern　and　you're　not　sure　whether　a　squeeze　is。taking　place；　it's。worth　looking　at　it　in　a　1…box　reversal　chart。　Panel　D　is。a　1％　x　1　chart　of　Medlmmune；　Inc。　The　squeeze　of　three　boxes；　or　3　percent；　before　the　sharp　uptrend　is。easy　to　see。　It's　worth　noting　that　1…box　reversal　charts。are　clearer　and　easier　to　analyze　if　they're　drawn　using　the　point　method　of　Xs。only。　

Indicators　of　Point　and　Figure　Charts　
One　of　the　traditional　disadvantages。of　point　and　figure　charts。is。that　they　can't　be　used　with　indicators。such　as　MACD；　stochastic；　or　OBV；　and　the　like；　because　they　don't　have　a　time　scale　and　consequently　won't　match　up　with　the　indicator。　If；　however；　the　indicator　is。calculated　based　on　columns　rather　than　time；　any　indicator　can　be　used　with　a　point　and　figure　chart。　In　fact；　the　indicator　bees。an　indicator　of　the　point　and　figure　chart；　not　of　the　raw　price　data。　The　difference　is　that　the　indicator　“period”　（length）　is。


based　not　only　on　the　indicator　length　in　columns。but　also　on　the　number　of　columns。in　the　chart；　and　that　varies。according　to　the　box　size　and　reversal　used。　An　RSI　calculated　on　a　length　of　14　columns。can　produc　
analogy　is。to　changing　the　time　frame　of　your　bar　charts。to　produce　different　RSIs。based　on　hourly；　daily；　or　weekly。data。　
Indicators。do　not　work。well　on　fixed　box　size　arith　
scale　percentage　box　charts。should；　therefore；　always。be　used。　Figure　8。10　is。a　1％　x　3　log　scale　point　and　figure　chart　of　Merck。&　Co。；　with　an　MACD　




buy　and　sell　signalse　from　the　point　and　figure　chart　itself；　the　MACD　signals。put　you　
on　alert　to　look。for　the　next　point　and　figure　signal。　***************　176；177　***************　
move　to　the　July　high。　The　price　then　corrected　sharply　followed　by　the　OBV。　In　December　2005；　it　rose　sharply；　but　although　the　OBV　followed；　it　did　not　have　the　same　impel　us。　The　price　consolidated　again　and　broke　out　to　a　new　high。　Notice　that　the　OBV　did　not　do　so。　Looking　at　the　OBV　of　a　point　and　figure　chart　helps。you　to　accept　or　reject　point　and　figure　signals。because　a　good　signal　should　have　volume　behind　it。　

Remember；　when　drawing　indicators。of　point　and　figure；　the　box　size；　the　reversal；　and　the　indicator　lengths。are　all　input　parameters。　In　the　examples。above；　the　standard　indicator　leng