股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第30章

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e　many。years。　They　are　essentially　terminating　experiences。　
Once　every　ten　years。there　is　a　very　high　probability　of　a　recession；　and　this。is。at　the　very　end　or　beginning　of　the　decade。　The　ninth　year。of　a　decade　is。dangerous；　and　the　first　three　years。deeply　disappointing。　
Secular　trends。have　a　high　probability　of　lasting　for　multiples。of　four　years；　with　durations。of　sixteen　to　twenty。being　quite　normal。　These　are　periods。when　only。active　trading　can　survive　（in　a　secular　downtrend）；　or　alternatively　a　buy…and…hold　strategy。is。really　hard　to　beat。　Even　within　secular　uptrends；　when　inactive　styles。are　preferred；　there　is。still　a　high　probability　of　a　fourth…year　correction　phase。　This　will　typically。retrace　a　significant　major　fraction　of　the　entire　uptrend　to　date；　probably　at　least　20　percent　and　possibly　as。much　as。50　percent。　
The　odds。of　winning　are　higher　if　we　are　long　stocks。or　markets　that　are　in　secular　uptrend。　We　must　be　willing　to　tolerate　a　certain　amount　of　volatility　but　not　more　than　25　percent；　or　we　risk。being　eliminated　from　the　game。　We　always。use　stop…loss。levels；　but　we　do　not　leave　such　levels。in　the　market　as。open　orders。　
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