股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第6章

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eases；　the　lack。of　intensity　creates。a　trend　change。　To　extend　or　regenerate　a　trend；　it　is。necessary　for　an　entirely　new　pool　of　buyers　in　an　uptrend　and　sellers。in　a　down　trend　to　emerge。　In　other　words；　the　fundamentals。that　dictate　and　define　long…term　price　movements。must　be　sufficiently　attractive　to　entice　a　new　group　of　adherents。willing　to　mit　funds。to　their　beliefs。　Trading　the　markets。is。not　a　game　of　lip　service。　Regardless。of　how　vocal　you　may　be　in　professing　your　market　forecast　or　how　convincing　your　arguments；　the　litmus　test　and　the　determinant　of　price　movement　is　money。　
It　is。human　nature　to　seek。approval　for　one's。actions。　This。is。ingrained　in　most。　To　contradict　the　majority　is。socially　unacceptable。　You　risk。being　ostracized　if　you　fail　to　conform　to　the　rules。and　the　values。of　society。　Unfortunately；　such　behavior　does。not　necessarily　serve　you　well　when　trading　the　markets。　
Having　been　involved　exclusively　with　large　financial　institutions。for　more　than　thirty…five　years；　we　know　it's。impossible　for　them　to　mit　significant　amounts。of　funds。after　a　trend　has。been　established。　The　petition　is。too　intense　and　too　many　price　concessions　have　to　be　made。　Consequently；　we　had　to　be　prepared　to　anticipate　trend　changes。　In　other　words；　we　had　to　oppose　the　psychology　of　the　marketplace　and　be　prepared　to　buy。weakness。and　sell　strength。　It　was。often　difficult　given　the　overall　sentiment。　But　it　was。the　only　way　to　make　large…scale　mitments　and　to　do　so　at　propitious。price　levels。　Trading　discipline　and　objectivity　were　essential　to　thisunterintuitive　approach。　TD　Sequential　was。the　first　trading　method　developed　to　acplish　this。goal。　TD　bo　is。a　related　approach　with　more　requirements。and　greater　precision。　
Markets。advance　and　decline　in　a　natural　price　rhythm　that　is。often　definable。　Although　the　market　does。not　alwaysnform　to　this。price　pattern　prescription；　even　when　it　deviates；　the　price　pattern　is。still　valuable　because　it　forces。a　trader　to　buy　into　price　weakness。and　to　sell　into　price　strength。　

Determining　Market　Direction　

Before　mitting　to　a　trade；　you　must　define　the　market　environment。　Is。the　market　vulnerable　to　an　advance　or　to　a　decline；　or　is　it　locked　into　a　trading　ranger。　Much　research　and　analysis。have　shown　that　a　simple　basic。mathematical　exercise；　which　we　call　TD　Setup；　will　provide　a　clue　to　whether　the　market　is　likely　to　rally　or　decline。　By　paring　the　market's。close　on　the　current　price　bar　with　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　and　then　recording　a　series　of　similar　consecutive　price…parison　closes；　one　can　draw　highly　probable　conclusions　regarding　future　price　behavior。　Specifically；　by　recording　nine　consecutive　closes。lower　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier；　a　buy　setup　is。formed；　and　by　recording　nine　consecutive　closes。higher　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier；　a　sell　setup　is。formed。　Often；　the　pletion　of　these　TD　Setup　series。is。associated　with　minor　areas。of　price　exhaustion—particularly　when　the　TD　Setups。are　properly　price　“perfected”。　Specifically；　for　a　TD　Buy　Setup　to　be　perfected　and　qualified　for　a　short…term　rally；　either　the　low　of　buy　setup　price　bar　eight　or　the　low　of　buy　setup　price　bar　nine　must　be　lower　than　both　lows。of　buy　price　bars。six　and　seven。　If　neither　price　bar　eight's。nor　price　bar　nine's。low　meets。this。requirement；　then　you　must　await　the　first　subsequent　low　that　fulfills。this。requirement　before　the　price　〃perfection〃　is。met。　Figure　2。1　illustrates　just　such　a　deferral。　Note　in　Figure　2。1　that　once　a　low　was。recorded　that　exceeded　the　lows。of　TD　Buy　Setup　price　bars。six　and　seven；　the　market　experienced　an　advance　of　a　few　trading　days。　
Conversely；　in　Figure　2。2；　once　a　high　was。recorded　that　exceeded　the　highs。of　TD　Sell　Setup　price　bars。six　and　seven；　the　market　experienced　a　decline　of　a　few　trading　days；　Granted；　TD　Setup　price　perfections。are　often　preludes。to　speculative　trades。of　an　indeterminable　duration；　nevertheless；　their　value　may　be　to　forewarn　of　a　likely　interruption　of　an　ongoing　trend。　

Once　the　minimum　requirement　of　nine　consecutive　closes。lower　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　is。recorded；　the　TD　Buy　Setup　is　plete。　Similarly；　once　the　minimum　requirement　of　nine　consecutive　closes。higher　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　is　recorded；　the　TD　Sell　Setup　isplete。　These　setups。serve　to　provide　the　trader　with　the　market's。likely　trading　environment。　Most　often　they　are　preambles。to　countdown　series　that；　once　pleted；　identify　zones。of　price…trend　exhaustion。　TD　bo　is。designed　to　select　only　those　price　bars。of　relevance　and　to　ignore　those　that　fail　to　adhere　to　rigid　selection　criteria　regarding　price　relationships。　Specifically；　it）　addition　to　the　setup　phase；　a　subsequent　and　more　onerous。process。is。followed。　

The　Buy　or　Sell　Countdown　
Once　a　TD　Buy　Setup　of　nine　consecutive　closes。lower　than　the　close　four　price　bars　earlier　is。recorded；　the　buy　countdown　process。begins。by　referring　back。to　the　first　price　bar　of　the　buy　setup　and　making　the　following　parisons：　
1。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　lower　than　or　equal　to　the　price　bar's。low　two　price　bars。earlier。　

2。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　lower　than　the　prior　price　bar's。close。　

3。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　lower　than　the　close　of　the　prior　countdown　price　bar's。close　（note　that　the　first　price　bar　in　the　countdown　series。has　no　prior　price　bar　close）。　

4。　
The　low　of　that　price　bar　must　be　lower　than　the　prior　price　bars。low。　


Because　countdown　consists。of　a　total　of　thirteen　price　bars。that　conform　to　the　aforementioned　prerequisites；　or　slight　variations。of　them；　one　can　readily　see　that　the　conditions。necessary　for　countdown　pletion　are　strict　and　exacting。　The　same　requirements；　in　reverse；　apply　to　sell　countdown。　
Once　a　TD　Sell　Setup　of　nine　consecutive　closes。higher　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　is。recorded；　the　sell　countdown　process。begins。by　referring　back。to　the　first　price　bar　of　the　sell　setup　and　making　the　following　parisons：　
1。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　higher　than　or　equal　to　the　price　bar's。high　two　price　bars。earlier。　

2。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　higher　than　the　prior　price　bars。close。　

3。　
The　close　of　that　price　bar　must　be　higher　than　the　close　of　the　prior　countdown　price　bar's。dose　（note　that　the　first　price*　bar　in　the　countdown　series。has。no　prior　price　bar　close）。　

4。　
The　high　of　that　price　bar　must　be　higher　than　the　prior　price　bar's。high。　


Figure　2。3；　the　Philadelphia　Gold　and　Silver　Index　（XAU）；　illustrates。examples。of　both　TD　bo　low…risk。bottoms。and　tops。　Beginning　December　21；　2005；　and　continuing　the　next　eight　consecutive　trading　days；　the　minimum　TD。Sell　Setup　requirement　of　consecutive　price　parisons。of　closes。higher　than　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　was。fulfilled。　The　numbers。for　the　sell　setup　appear　above　each　price　bar；　and　the　series。stops。at　nine　because　that　is。the　minimum　number　of　consecutive　price　parisons。to　plete　a　sell　setup。　Upon　pletion　of　the　sell　setup；　countdown　mences。　Unlike　with　TD　Sequential；　the　countdown　process。of　TD　bo　refers。back。to　the　first　price　bar　of　the　sell　setup。　The　lour　prerequisites。described　earlier　are　then　applied　to　each　successive　price　bar。　

Figure　2。4　provides。a　closer　look　at　the　same　chart。　Note　that　the　close　of　day　one　of　the　sell　setup　failed　to　fulfill　qualifier　No。　1。　It　was。not　higher　than　or　equal　to　the　high　two　price　bars。earlier。　Consequently；　sell　countdown　is　deferred　until　possibly　the　next　trading　day。　The　close　of　sell　setup　day　two　is。higher　than　or　equal　to　the　high　two　days。earlier。　Also；　the　close　is。above　the　previous。day's。close；　and　the　high　is。above　the　prior　price　bar's。high。　The　requirement　of　a　close　above　the　prior　countdown　close　is。not　applicable　because　there　was。no　prior　countdown　close。　Sell　setup　days　three　and　four　do　not　qualify　asuntdown　days。because　both　have　down　closes。and　qualifier　No。　2　requires。that　the　close　be　higher　than　the　prior　price　bar's。close。　Sell　setup　days。five　and　six　meet　all　the　sell　countdown　qualifications。　Sell　setup　day　seven　does　not　qualify　because　its。close　is。lower　than　the　prior　price　bar's。close。　Sell　setup　price　bars。eight　and　nine　do　meet　the　requirements　of　sell　countdown。　At　the　time　of　pletion　of　sell　setup；　there　are　already　five　sell　countdown　days。　For　the　sake　of　parison；　note　that　TD　Sequential　would　only　now　begin　itsuntdown　process；　but　at　the　same　time；　the　countdown　requirements。for　TD　Sequential　are　less。restrictive—in　fact；　TD　bo　has。four　times。the　number　of　rules。that　TD　Sequential　has。　Moving　the　process。forward；　two　days。after　the　sell　setup　ispleted；　the　sell　countdown　series。increases。to　six；　and　the　next　four　trading　days。do　not　meet　all　the　requirements。　January　13　and　14　do　meet　the　requirements；　and　the　countdown　proceeds　to　seven　and　eight。　After　a　five…trading…day　interruption；　the　countdown　quickly　records。five　consecutive　trading　days。that　meet　all　the　countdown　rules；　and　on　countdown　day　thirteen　the　rally　high　is。recorded　and　price　declines。　

Price　Exhaustion。and　Reversal　
TD　bo　is。designed　to　anticipate　areas。of　price　exhaustion。　It　is。the　exception　rather　than　the　rule　that　TD　bo　countdown　day　thirteen　will　coincide　with　the　precise　price　exhaustion　peak。or　trough　price　bar；　but　often　it　will　occur　within　a　couple　of　price　bars。of　peak。or　trough；　and　it　will　alert　a　trader　to　a　market's。vulnerability　to　a　price　reversal。　Once　countdown　pletion　has。been　recorded；　at　a　minimum；　one　can　expect　price　to　undergo　a　trading　range　before　it　is。able　to　resume　its。trend。　However；　if　there　is。no　meaningful　price　response　after　twelve　price　bars。have　lapsed；　the　likelihood　of　a　price　reversal　upon　TD　bo　countdown　pletion　diminishes。　Consequently；　in　these　instances；　often　the　market　is。undergoing　an　interruption　in　the　prevailing　trend。　In　either　case；　TD　bo　inserts。a　level　of　discipline　into　a　trader's。methodology。　As。is。evident　in　Figure　2。3；　the　peak。price　day　and　volatile　trading　day　of　the　entire　sell　setup　and　countdown　period　coincided　with　pletion　of　sell　countdown　and　the　expectation　of　price　exhaustion　and　a　price　decline。　Very　optimistic。news。regarding　precious。metals。was。more　than　likely　associated　with　this。trading；　and　that　information　served　to　entice　traders。into　the　market　and　exhaust　the　near…term　upside。　

The　subsequent　market　decline　did　culminate　in　the　formation　of　a　buy　setup　and；　as　you　can　see　in　Figure　2。5；　because　price　perfection　was。fulfilled　on　February　15；　the　same　day　as。the　pletion　of　the　buy　setup；　there　was。a　reflex　rally　of　four　trading　days。　Then　the　decline　resumed　as。did　the　countdown　process。　As。is。often　the　case；　the　countdown　series。did　not　quite　reach　thirteen　pletions；　rather　only　ten　price　bars　fulfilled　the　countdown　criteria。　Once　the　March　low　was。made；　price　rallied　and　the　TD　bo　sell　setup　seriesmenced；　reaching　the　minimum　requirement　for　pletion。　The　countdown　process。was。then　activated；　making　parisons。starting　with　the　first　day　of　sell　setup　on　March　24　（see　Figure　2。6）。　Days。one　and　two　of　sell　setup　were　countdown　days。one　and　two；　as。well；　because　their　respective　closes。were　higher　than　both　t