股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第7章

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up　were　countdown　days。one　and　two；　as。well；　because　their　respective　closes。were　higher　than　both　the　highs。two　days。earlier　and　each　prior　day's。close。　Additionally；　each　day's。high　was。above　the　previous。day's。high；　and　each　close　was。above　the　previousuntdown　day's。close。　Just　as。the　prior　sell　countdown　series。recorded　its。thirteenth　pletion　on　its。high　day　of　January。31；　so　too　this。time；　on　May　11；　the　upside　stopped　precisely　on　the　peak。price　day。　However；　note　that　the　dose　of　countdown　price　bar　thirteen　was。neither　above　the　high　two　price　bars。earlier；　a　higher　close　than　the　prior　day's。dose；　nor　above　the　prior　countdown　close。　Why　did　a　thirteen　appear　above　this。price　bar？　Because　TD　bo　countdown　has　an　alternative　for　the　thirteenth　price　bar；　which　is。referred　to　as　the　termination　count。　Specifically；　countdown　thirteen　can　be　recorded　with　the　closing　price　relationships。as。are　the　other　price　bars。from　countdowns。one　through　twelve；　but　an　alternative　option　exists。for　the　open　to　serve　as。a　proxy　for　the　closing　price。　As　you　can　see；　by　replacing　the　closing　with　the　opening　of　the　price　bar；　the　countdown　series。meets。the　requirement　for　pletion　thirteen。　

Once　the　peak。is。recorded；　price　declines。and　records。the　minimum　requirement　for　a　buy　setup—nine　consecutive　closes　lower　than　the　close　four　days。earlier。　The　subsequent　buy　setup　series。was。unusually　steep　（see　Figure　2。3）。　As。a　result；　a　high　number　of　price　bars。met　the　requirements。for　buy　countdown。　Buy　setup　days。one　through　seven　were　TD　bo　countdown　price　bars。as。well。　Each　requirement　is。identical　to　those　applied　to　TD　bo　sell　countdown　but　in　reverse。　In　other　words；　the　close　of　each　was。lower　than　the　low　seen　two　price　bars。earlier　and　also　lower　than　the　prior　price　bars。close；　and　each　countdown　close　was。successively　lower　than　the　previousuntdown　day's。close。　Finally；　each　low　was。lower　than　the　prior　price　bars。low。　Thisparison　was。applied　to　the　subsequent　countdown　series；　but　notice　that　after　countdown　ten　was。recorded　and　specifically　countdowns。eleven　and　twelve；　the　previous。rules。were　not　adhered　to。　TD　bo　version　No。　2　is。more　liberal　than　version　No。　1　and　allows。for　the　rules　of　countdown　price　bars。eleven；　twelve；　and　thirteen　to　be　more　liberally。qualified。　Specifically；　the　closes。of　countdowns。eleven；　twelve；　and　thirteen　must　be　successively　lower　than　one　another　to　fulfill　pletion。　Once　again；　but　in　reverse；　see　that　price　exhaustion　thirteen　was。successful　in　identifying　when　a　trend　is。about　to　exhaust　itself　and　result　in　a　price　reversal。　
In　the　previous。examples；　TD　bo　thirteen　sell　and　buy　countdown　pletions　coincided　exactly　with　each　trend's。price　exhaustion。　Obviously；　this。is。not　what　one　should　expect。　The　accuracy　of　TD　bo　is。just　not　this。high；　and　to　believe　that　this。methodology　will　produce　such　precision　in　other　instances。is。a　presumptuous。and　serious。mistake　because　you　will　be　sorely　disappointed。　Consider　such　events。to　be　exceptions。to　the　ride　and　yourself　fortunate　just　to　have　TD　bo　successfully　identify　price　zones。where　price　might　exhaust　itself。　
Just　as。the　buy　setup　in　February　did；　the　sell　setup　in　May；　the　buy　setup　in　June；　and　the　sell　setup　in　August　all　identified　likely　short…term　price　reversals。　All　setups。were　“perfected”；　that　is；　the　buy　setups　were　acpanied　by　a　low　for　price　bar　eight　or　price　bar　nine　that　was。lower　than　the　price　lows。for　bars。six　and　seven；　and　the　sell　setups。were　acpanied　by　a　high　for　price　bar　eight　or　price　bar　nine　that　was。higher　than　the　highs　for　price　bars。six　and　seven。　Although　in　each　instance　the　price　reversals。were　short　term　and　the　buy　setup　lows。and　the　sell　setup　highs。subsequently　were　exceeded；　the　trading　opportunities　existed。　We　do　not　remend　concentrating　on　setups；　because　the　countdown　pletions。are　more　likely　to　coincide　with　more　significant　price　exhaustions　and　turning　points。　But　price　setups。do　provide　context　for　trend　followers；　who　can　use　them　to　add　to　positions。subsequent　to　these　reactions；　or　for　traders。who　want　to　operate　against　the　prevailing　trends。　

Aggressive　Settings　for　TD　bo　and　TD　Sequential　
Figure　2。3　demonstrates。how　effective　price…exhaustion　techniques。can　be　in　identifying　market　tops　and　bottoms。　The　bane　of　trend　followers。has。always。been　lack。of　liquidity；　price　gaps；　and　slippage。　By　anticipating　price…exhaustion　zones；　one　is。both　prepared　and　able　to　sell　into　market　strength　and　buy　into　market　weakness；　which　provides。a　trader　a　distinct　timing　advantage。　It　is。difficult　psychologically。to　act　against　the　prevailing　trend；　but　at　the　same　time　it　is。more　rewarding　because　there　is。no　lack。of　supply。when　the　market　is。declining；　just　as。there　is。no　shortage　of　demand　when　the　market　is　advancing。　Although　TD　Sequential　and　TD　bo　are　capable　of　identifying　areas。of　likely。price…trend　exhaustion；　when　they　are　silent　and　give　no　indication　of　likely　price　reversal；　it　behooves。a　trader　to　apply　the　aggressive　versions。of　both　to　gain　an　enhanced　trading　edge；　because　their　more　liberal　requirements。make　them　more　sensitive。　
Both　TD　Aggressive　Sequential。　and　TD　Aggressive　bo。　possess。the　same　core　parameters。as。their　respective　parents；　TD　Sequential　and　TD　bo。　However；　their　countdown　requirements。are　less。restrictive　and　consequently　identify　price…exhaustion　opportunities　more　frequently。　Specifically；　instead　of　relying　on　TD　Sequential’s。strict　parison　of　a　close　versus。the　high　two　price　bars。earlier　to　identify　upside　price　exhaustion　and；　conversely；　a　close　versus。the　low　two　price　bars。earlier　to　identify。downside　price　exhaustion；　the　aggressive　version　merely　pares。highs。to　identity　a　likely　top　and　lows。to　do　likewise　at　a　prospective　bottom。　Figure　2。7　shows。the　Philadelphia　Gold　and　Silver　Index　（XAU）　from　August　1；　2005；　through　May　30；　2006；　and　illustrates。the　advantage　of　applying　TD　Aggressive　Sequential　vis…a…vis。standard　TD　Sequential—the　frequency　of　price…exhaustion　occurrences　increases　as。do　potential　trading　opportunities　at　extreme　price　tops　and　bottoms。　

Although　the　setup　series。are　identical　for　both　TD。Sequential　and　TD　Aggressive　Sequential；　the　countdown　parison　requirements。are　different。　As。a　result；　the　countdown　pletions。are　different　for　each。　This。would　bee　readily　apparent　were　you　to　pare　the　location　of　the　thirteen　on　the　TD　Aggressive　Sequential　chart　with　those　for　TD　Sequential　over　the　same　period。　Note　that　TD　Aggressive　Sequential　recorded　a　single　thirteen　top　—　in　October　2005　—　and　a　single　thirteen　bottom　—　in　March　2006　—　and　that　TD　Sequential　failed　to　record　a　thirteen　price…exhaustion　indication　during　the　entire　period。　That's。because　the　more　liberal　construction　of　TD　Aggressive　Sequential　allows。for　speedier　countdowns；　and　the　pletion　of　itsuntdown　almost　always。precedes。the　pletion　of　conventional　TD　Sequential　countdown。　Obviously；　times。when　both　versions。of　TD　Sequential　speak。simultaneously　have　greater　import　than　when　one　occurs。without　the　other。　Nevertheless；　expect　to　see　the　aggressive　version　if　the　conventional　TD　Sequential　is。there。　In　fact；　count　on　seeing　the　aggressive　version　at　or　near　the　extreme　price…exhaustion　level；　although　the　basic。version　is。more　likely　to　occur　when　the　extreme　exhaustion　levels。are　tested。　

What　to　Do　Next　
Sufficiently　often；　markets。have　responded　to　both　perfected　setups。as。well　aspleted　countdowns。to　justify　their　use。　As。we　discussed　and　demonstrated　earlier；　markets。usually　react　immediately　to　perfected　setups。　The　extent　of　the　response　depends　on　whether　that　setup　has。exceeded　the　extreme　level　of　the　opposite　setup—the　TD　Setup　Trend　（TDST）　level　in　the　other　direction。　Figure　2。8　is。yet　another　chart　of　XAU　showing　declines。in　August　and　October　2005　that　held　above　the　TDST　lines。associated　with　the　sell　setups。begun　in　May　and　September　2005。　When　the　buy　setups。fail　to　penetrate　the　sell　setup　TDST　levels。such　as。in　these　two　instances；　the　declines。are　usually　pullbacks。within　the　context　of　an　uptrend。　As。these　two　examples。illustrate；　the　market　often　supplies　insight　as。to　when　to　expect　the　setup　to　be　succeeded　by　a　resumption　of　the　prior　move　and　a　price　reversal　and　when　to　expect　the　trend　to　continue。　
When　a　countdown　thirteen　has。been　recorded；　some　markets。respond　immediately；　whereas。others。meander　in　a　trading　range　only　to　resume　the　prior　trend。　How　does。one　distinguish　between　the　two　expectations？　Typically；　if　there　is。no　appreciable　response　to　a　thirteen　within　twelve　price　bars；　the　likelihood　of　a　failure　increases。　However；　if　then　is　a　close　above　the　close　four　price　bars。earlier　and　additional　price…range　follow…through　occurs。with　next　the　price　bar；　the　chance　of　a　trend　enhancesnsiderably。　

Many　will　question　the　ability　of　TD　bo　to　identify　levels。of　price　exhaustion　and　consider　it　voodoo　analysis。to　try　to　do　so；　that　is。their　prerogative。　This。reaction　is。not　unexpected。　However；　we　believe　that　to　dismiss。such　a　timing　device　is。a　mistake　they。make　at　their　own　peril。　This。approach　is。intended　to　provide　fundamentalists。and　technicians。alike　with　a　timing　device　and；　if　nothing　else；　an　element　of　trading　discipline。　Granted；　the　indicator　is。by　no　means。a　substitute　for　sound　fundamental　analysis。and　trading　experience；　but　it　certainty　is。a　viable　adjunct　to　a　trading　regimen。　Its　beauty　is。its。versatility　and　application　globally　to　all　markets　and　time　periods。　Once　fundamental　screens。have　identified　attractive　trading　opportunities。and　conventional　technical　analysis。hasnfirmed　them；　installing　TD　bo　as。an　overlay　serves。to　fine…tune　trading　activity。and　ideally　should　enhance　trading　results。　If　TD　Sequential　or　other　DeMark。Indicators；　particularly　short…term　indicators；　are　introduced；　you　should　be　able　to　improve　timing　trading　opportunities。even　further。　

CHAPTER　3　



Charting　With　Candles　and　Clouds　

NICOLE　ELLIOTT。
Ten　years。ago　when　I　joined　a　Japanese　bank。as。an　experienced　technical　analyst；　I　arrived　armed　with　my　bar　charts；　now　conveniently　drawn　by　puters。and　displayed　on　puter　screens。　The　traders。there　asked　me　why　I　did　not　use　candle　charts；　a　tool　they　considered　much　more　effective。　An　English　dealer　kindly　lent　me　hispy　of　Steve　Nison's　Beyond　Candlesticks　（Wiley　&　Sons；　1994）。　I　read　it　surreptitiously；　at　home；　and　discovered　what　the　more　enlightened　British；　European；　and　U。S。　chartists。had　already。seen。　Bars。and　candles。are　actually　one　and　the　same；　what　varies。slightly　is。the　display。format。　Candles。are　clear；　easy；　and　above　all　fast。　This。is。precisely　what　makes。them　so　superior。　
Their　advantages。are　clear：　speed；　speed；　speed。　I　look。at　between　200　and　400　charts。per　day；　so　speed　is。of　the　essence；　dandles　inform　faster　than　bar　charts；　and　they。also　provide　more　detail　and　use　more　of　the　available　information。　
Candle　Basics　
First；　a　candle　has。a　skinny　bit：　high　to　low　points。as　in　a　bar；　and　a　fat　bit　（the　real　body）：　the　difference　between　the　opening　price　and　the　closing　price。　In　official　markets　it　is　easy　to　know　exactly。at　what　price　an　instrument　started　trading。　In　over…the…counter　markets。it　is。a　lot　more　difficult；　as。it　is。with　markets。t