股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第8章

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ent　started　trading。　In　over…the…counter　markets。it　is。a　lot　more　difficult；　as。it　is。with　markets。that　trade　twenty…four　hours。a　day。　I　tend　to　use　the　Wellington　（New　Zealand）/Tokyo　opening　prices。and　the　New　York/Chicago　closes。　If　the　opening　is。above　the　close；　the　candle　islored　in—black。if　you　are　using　a　pencil；　any　of　fourteen　different　colors。if　you　are　using　the　Bloomberg　terminals　GPC　charts。　I　like　to　use　the　〃house　colors〃　（which　for　us　is。dark。blue）　as。do　many　other　professionals　because　it　links。the　research　and　the　institution。　If　the　closing　price　is。above　the　open；　the　real　body　is。left　white—based　on　white　graph　paper。　
Second；　as。the　hours；　days；　and　weeks。progress；　the　candles。change　shape。　In　the　morning　on　the　first　of　the　month；　the　week；　or　at　the　top　of　the　hour　it　can　be　very　difficult　to　imagine　how　the　candle　might　look。thirty　days。later。　What　may　look　extremely　bullish　at　the　start　of　the　time　frame　can；　of　course；　fizzle　out　into　something　inconclusive　or　even　bee　a　reversal　candle。　
For　example；　prices。kick。off　in　the　morning　at　X　（a　horizontal　line）。　They　then　rally　2　percent；　and　the　candle　now　has。a　large　white　body　and　is。looking　pretty　bullish。　The　market　then　collapses。in　the　afternoon　by　2。5　percent；　so　you　now　have　a　long　thin　bit　above　a　squat　black。candle。　That　produces。quite　a　different　picture；　a　very　bearish　one。　The　point　is。to　look。at　the　candles。at　the　end　of　the　time　period。　This。is。why；　in　ascending　order；　daily；　weekly；　monthly；　and　quarterly　closes。above　or　below　key　chart　levels。are　important。　Imagine　getting　gung…ho　with　some　share　you　tipped；　earning　brownie　points。as。it　breaks。to　a　new　all…time　high。　Then；　by　the　end　of　the　month　the　stocks。value　retreats。to　just　below　the　point　at　which　you　bought　it。　The　candle　would　look　like　the　one　with　bearish　implications；　which　is。known　as。an　evening　star　or　reverse　hammer　（picture　a　mallet）。　Think。again　about　thispany's。shares。　If　you　had　remended　it　to　colleagues；　friends；　and　family；　how　would　you　feel？　Gutted　probably；　or　at　least　disappointed。　And　would　you　buy。more？　Probably　not；　as。your　instinct　would　suggest　sitting　it　out　for　a　while　to　see　if　things。improve。　
There　is。one　downside　to　candlesticks：　their　larger。size。　Each　candle　is。fatter　than　a　bar；　therefore　they　use　more　space　on　a　page　and；　more　important；　more　width　on　a　puter　screen。　This　means　you　see　less　of　the　hourly；　daily；　weekly；　or　monthly　data　and　therefore　lose　some　of　the　footprints。and　meanderings。of　prior　moves。　With　markets。you　fol…low　closely；　this。is。not　too　much　of　a　problem　as。you　have　the　road　map　in　your　head。　With　instruments。you　look。at　only　occasionally；　it　can　be　trickier。　

Reversal　candles。are　another　substantial　type　of　market　indicator。　Important　reversal　candles　have　lovely　names；　including　shooting　star；　bearish　engulfing；　three　black　crows；　abandoned　baby；　and　my　favorite；　hanging　man。　The　rest　are　mere　foot　soldiers。　Look。at　the　shapes。carefully　and　try　to　imagine　what　happened　on　that　day　or　week；　how…price　action　evolved　over　the　period；　the　implications。for　buyers。and　sellers。and　how　they　might　be　thinking　at　the　time。　As。well　as。these　single；　double；　or　triple　candle　reversal　formations；　note　that　the　Japanese　also　use　traditional　patterns　as。we　do　in　the　West：　rounded　bottom；　double　tops。and　triangles；　head…and…shoulders；　and　rectangles。　
Cloud　charting　is。the　second　Japanese　technique　I　have　incorporated　into　my　method。　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo—the　correct　name　for　cloud　charting—was。invented　by　a　Japanese　journalist；　Goichi　Hosoda　（1926…1983）；　who　wrote　under　the　pseudonym　Ichimoku　Sanjin。　（The　Chinese　characters。that　make　up　his。name　translate　roughly　as。〃at　one　glance。。。of　a　man　standing　on　a　mountain。〃）　On　the　Bloomberg　terminal；　cloud　charts。are　called　General　Overview　Charts。（type　in　an　instrument　code　and　then　GOC）；　which　gives。a　much　better　feel　for　what　these　charts。can　do。　The　method　was。revived　by　Hidenobu　Sasaki　（1950…）　who　updated　it　in　the　very。successful　book。Ichimoku　Kinko　Studies　（Toshi　Raider　Publishing；　1996）。　For　the　mathematically　minded；　or　for　those　who　would　like　to　set　this。up　on　a　PC；　the　formula　for　the　different　lines。is。detailed　in　Figure　3。2。　For　those　like　me　with　a　pathological　fear　of　algebra；　whose　eyes。glaze　as。soon　as。they　see　a　Greek。letter；　we　shall　work。through　step…by…step　in　plain　English　how　these　charts。are　set　up　and　how　they　work。　（Also；　remember　that　the　Bloomberg　terminal　will　draw　all　the　lines。for　you。）　
What　follows。are　the　five　steps。necessary　to　set　up　these　charts。　
1。　
Plot　daily　candlesticks。of　your　chosen　instrument。　Because　the　Tokyo　stock　exchange　closes　for　lunch；　some　traders。plot　morning　and　afternoon　sessions。separately。　Although　traditional　theory　says。only　daily　candles　can　be　used；　many　bend　the　rules。and　use　hourly　and　weekly。candles。　One　reason　to　try　and　follow　the　conventions　is。that　if　you　don't　you　may　be　the　only　trader　whose　averages。have　crossed　（and　you　will　be　wondering　why　all　the　others。have　not　leapt　into　action）。　In　fact；　if　you　are　too　clever　and　tinker　excessively；　you　may　be　very　precise；　but　you　will　miss。the　crowd　psychology。　

2。　
Look。at　the　shapes。of　the　candles。first　to　see　if　there　are　any　reversal　formations。　These　are　easier　to　spot　before　you　start　drawing　in　all　the　other　lines。　

3。　
Next；　add　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　averages。　These　averages。are　based　on　mean　price　（high　minus。low　divided　by　two）；　not　closing　price。　



Through　extrusive　manual　back…testing；　Ichimoku　Sanjin　decided　that　these　two　time　frames　worked　best。　It　may　have　something　to　do　with　the　fact　that　in　his　day　everyone　worked　a　five…and…a…half…day　week。and　each　month　contained　twenty…six　working　days。　Many　have　suggested　changing　the　number　of　days。in　the　averages；　perhaps。to　ten　and　twenty。　I　would；　if　most　other　people　had；　but　as。they　haven't；　I　won’t。　Again；　you　are　trying　to　tune　in　to　the　mind…set　of　other　investors。　There　is。no　point　being　ahead　of　my　time；　I　want　to　know　when　the　thundering　herd　will　react。　
The　averages。are　employed　as。in　conventional　Western　methods。　The　shorter　one　（known　as。die　Conversion　Line）　whips。around　the　longer　one　（called　the　Base　Line）。　When　the　nine…day　average　drops。below　the　Base　Line；　it　is。time　to　convert　from　a　long　position　to　a　short　one。　On　the　way　up；　the　opposite　action　is。called　for　so　the　trader　always。has。an　open　position　in　the　market。　（Obviously　this。strategy　only　applies。to　situations。in　which　one　can　go　short。）　The　crucial　insight　about　all　moving　averages。is　that　they　work。well　in　trending　markets。but　are　hopeless。for　sideways。moves。　The　tricky　bit　is。deciding　whether　and　when　the　market　has。switched　from　one　mode　to　another；　and　for　how　long　might　it　last。　Sometimes。the　individual　candles。can　help　with　this—say　a　doji　（a　candle　in　which　the　opening　price　and　the　closing　price　were　the　same；　forming　a　crossbar　figure）　appears。at　the　edge　of　a　current　horizontal　move；　this　suggests。that　the　range　will　hold　even　if　the　averages。have　crossed。　More　often　than　not　I　would　wait　for　confirmation　with　a　weekly　or　monthly　close　outside　the　previousngestion　zone　to　conclude　that　there　is。indeed　a　new　trend。　

4。　
After　plotting　the　candles；　move　on　to　the　clouds。　Clouds。are　defined　by　an　upper　edge　and　a　lower　one；　both　called　Span；　which；　as。in　English；　means。length　of　time。　Leading　Span　1　also　known　as。Senkou　Span　A；　is。the　sum　of　today's。values。of　the　moving　averages。divided　by　two；　plotted　twenty…six　days。ahead　of　the　last　plete　candle。　Leading　Span　2；　or　Senkou　Span　B；　is。the　highest　price　of　the　last　fifty…two　days；　minus。the　lowest　price　of　that　period；　divided　by　two　and　again　plotted　twenty…six　days。ahead　of　the　last　plete　days。trading。　The　space　between　these　two　is。shaded；　or　cross…hatched　as。in　the　figures。in　this。chapter；　but　may　be　rendered　in　any　color　or　bination　of　colors。your　heart　desires。　Even　though　the　upper　edge　and　the　lower　edge　have　similar　names；　they　are　constructed　very　differently。　Like　the　Conversion　Line　and　the　Base　Line。　Leading　Span　1　and　Leading　Span　2　work。together。　Span　1　is。faster；　providing　the　arias；　whereas。the　slower　Span　2　provides。die　underlying　beat。　When　these　two　march　in　the　same　direction；　the　market　is。clearly　trending：　bullish　when　Span　1　is。above　Span　2　or　bearish　when　Span　2　is。above　Span　1。　

5。　
The　final　line　to　plot　is。the　Lagging　Span；　called　Chikou　Span　in　Japanese。　In　the　figures。in　this。chapter；　the　lagging　Span　is。the　thickest；　darkest　line。　It　is。last　nights。closing　price；　not　the　current　price；　plotted　twenty…six　days。ago。　


Lagging　Span　is　a　line　chart　that　has　been　displaced　back　in　time；　hence　the　name。　Some　puters。have　trouble　with　this。one　and　plot　the　current　price　twenty…five　days　ago。　If　this。is。the　case；　the　line　will　bob　up　and　down　during　the　day　as。the　current　price　changes。　This。is　irritating；　but　not　an　enormous　problem。　However；　the　reason　for　using　the　closing　price　is。sound。　As　I　pointed　out　earlier；　today’s。price　action　can　take　all　sorts。of　shapes　during　the　day。　The　goal　is。to　work。with　what　it　eventually　ended　up　looking　like。　Learn　to　be　patient。　

These　lines。identify　support；　resistance；　and　the　trend。　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo　is。a　system　designed　for　trending　markets。and　is。not　useful　for　anything　that　is。crawling　across。the　page。　Because　it　relies。on　daily　candlestick　charts；　day　traders。and　very。active　market…makers。won't　find　it　too　valuable。　On　the　other　end　of　the　spectrum；　it　is。a　little　too　short　term　for　pension　funds。looking　to　invest　for　very　long　time　horizons。　I　have　found　that　this。last　problem　can　be　overe　by　using　weekly　candles；　and　that　these　often　work。exceeding　well。　Monthly　charts。are　not　much　good　because　Leading　Span　B　uses。data　of　up　to　fifty…two　prior　time　periods。　Fifty…two　months。is。more　than　four　years；　meaning　that　the　slower　span　hardly　changes。（and　therefore　the　cloud　does。not　move　much）　and　may　be　a　million　miles。from　current　prices。　My　Japanese　colleagues。bend　the　rules。of　this。system　by　working　with　hourly　and　five…minute　charts。　They　have　been　trying　it　with　weekly。ones。for　a　long　time。　Feel　free　to　fiddle　and　experiment。　
To　recap　quickly；　the　six　most　useful　elements　are：　
。　
the　candles　themselves；　individually　and　in　groups　and　patterns。

。　
two　moving　averages；　nine…day　（Conversion　Line）　and　twenty…six…day　（Base　Line）　simple　ones。

。　
two　Leading　Spans；　which　make　up　the　cloud　itself　
。　one　Lagging　Span　





Working　With　the　Elements　
The　candles；　as。mentioned；　are　used　in　exactly　the　same　way　as。bar　charts。　First　look。for　clusters。of　support　and　resistance；　patterns；　congestion　/ones；　and　trendlines。　Then　look　for　reversal　candles；　which　usually　appear　either　singly　（easy　to　spot　because　they　are　often　the　biggest）　or　in　clusters。of　twos。and　threes。　Gaps。in　the　price　action；　especially　if　associated　with　a　reversal　candle；　are　also　important；　rather　like　Western　〃island　reversals。〃　
Use　the　moving　averages。in　the　usual　way。　Take　a　long　position　when　the　nine…day　one　is。higher　than　the　longer　average；　switch　to　a　short　position　when　the　nine…day　drops　below　the　twenty…six…day　average。　The　Base　Line　is。a　sort　of　drumbeat；　keeping　the　pace；　while　the　Conversion　Lin