股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第9章

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nty…six…day　average。　The　Base　Line　is。a　sort　of　drumbeat；　keeping　the　pace；　while　the　Conversion　Line　forces。you　to　act；　shifting　between　long　and　short　positions。　This　is。not　necessarily　noise；　but　worth　keeping　in　mind　when　deciding　whether　the　Conversion　Line's。moves。are　significant。　This。method　of　trading　keeps。you　in　the　market　100　percent　of　the　time；　not　necessarily　a　good　idea　（vast　losses。pile　up　in　sideways。markets）　and　perhaps　not　even　an　achievable　one　—　for　example；　if　you　cannot　borrow　shares。that　you　have　sold　short。　The　averages。themselves。are　used　as。support　and　resistance　levels。for　today's。price　action。　In　a　bull　trend　the　averages。move　northeast　more　slowly　than　the　candles。　If　there　was。a　small　downward　correction；　the　nine…day　average　would　be　the　first　support　level；　the　twenty…six…day。average　the　next。　The　value　of　the　instrument　might　drop　below　the　nine…day　one　and　hold　somewhere　between　there　and　the　lower　average。　At　that　point；　scrutinize　the　candles。themselves。for　signs。of　a　reversal。　At　this　stage　the　averages。should　not　cross。　If　they　do；　at　least　cut　the　position。　And　never　forget：　moving　averages。work。well　only　in　trending　markets。　
The　edges。of　the　cloud　also　act　as。support　and　resistance；　both　for　trending　and　sideways。markets。　In　an　ideal　bull　market；　leading　Span　1　will　be　below　the　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　averages。and　above　the　Leading　Span　2。　These　support　you　all　the　way。up　and　everything　is。plain　sailing。　The　opposite　happens。in　a　perfect　bear　market：　all　the　lines。feel　top…heavy　and　grind　the　market　down。　This。is。a　series。of　four　lines。which　should　limit　any　collective　move。　Picture　them　as。two　pairs。　In　the　first　pair；　the　longer　moving　average　is。more　important　than　the　short　one。　In　the　second　pair；　Span　2　is。of　critical　importance；　whereas。Span　1　may　or　may　not　stem　the　move。　I　think。of　this。as。an　advance　force　versus。rearguard　action。　If　prices。move　through　leading　Span　2；　then　any　position　should　be　cut　and　probably　reversed。　If　this。one　goes；　watch　out！　As。always；　at　support　and　resistance　levels。watch　for　reversal…type　candles。which　will　hint　that　the　level　will　hold。　These　often　break。through　Span　2　intraday　and　then　close　back。inside　the　cloud；　forming　a　good　reversal　pattern。　
The　most　interesting　thing　about　the　clouds　is。that　they　are　plotted　twenty…six　days。ahead　of　today's。prices。　They　therefore　indicate　where　support　and　resistance　levels。will　lie　over　the　ing　month。　The　thicker　the　cloud；　the　more　likely　it　will　contain　price　action。　If　it　is。thin；　and　if　the　lines。cross。from　bull　to　bear；　then　the　odds。increase　that　the　trend　will　change。　So　looking　forward；　the　cloud　gives　you　some　idea　whether　to　consider　reversing　tactics。　In　this。situation；　price　action　will　be　nonexistent。　If　coupled　with　a　reversal　candle　at　this。point；　whether　it　confirms。that　the　trend　will　hold　or　hints。that　it　will　change；　extra　attention　to　detail　and　willingness。to　go　with　the　move　is。warranted。　The　distance　between　the　current　price　and　the　cloud　is　not　considered　important。　It　does　not　indicate　whether　the　trend　is　overstretched；　as。the　relative　strength　index　（RSI）　or　other　oscillators。that　try　and　measure　market　excesses。would　do。　However；　if　the　price　had　say　shot　up　suddenly　and　far　faster　than　usual；　meaning　the　clouds。were　an　awful。long　way　down；　and　an　evening　star　or　a　hanging　man　candle　formed；　then　it　may　be　worth　taking　profits。as。the　corrective　decline　might　not　stop　until　a　very　long　way　down。　
I　tend　to　give　infinitely　more　weight　to　the　clouds　than　I　give　the　averages。　Am　I　correct　in　doing　so？　To　be　honest　I　still　use　conventional　Western　techniques—classic。Dow　Theory。is。how　I　would　describe　my　methods。　Therefore；　patterns。are　the　most　important；　followed　by　trendlines。and　retracements；　averages；　and　a　couple　of　oscillators。　Volume　and　open　interest　can　also　contribute　if　available。　As。to　averages；　I　have　done　extensive　back…testing　（with　a　puter）　and　know　that　no　single　set　of　averages。worksnsistently　well　over　time。　The　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　moving　averages。of　Ichimoku　are　not　superior　to　the　traditional　Western　ten…day　and　twenty…day　bination。　
Over　the　last　ten　years。I　have　added　Ichimoku　clouds。because　they　have　pletely。new　elements—including　their　position　today　and　their　position　at　the　end　of　a　month。　Their　thickness。or　lack。thereof　indicates。whether　prices。will　break。through　and　when　a　topping　or　bottoming　formation　may　occur。　Let's。say；　for　example；　a　congestion　pattern　has。been　apparent　for　some　time。　Is。it　a　double　top？　If　the　cloud　thins；　it　is。indeed　quite　possible　that　the　market　is。reaching　an　interim　high。　As。with　conventional　methods；　only　a　decisive　break　below　the　lower　edge　of　the　pattern　and　a　break。below　the　lower　edge　of　the　cloud　can　confirm　this。　If；　on　the　other　hand；　the　cloud　gets　thicker；　then　chances。are　that　price　action　isnsolidating　in　a　〃rectangle〃　and　not　a　major　top。　
The　Lagging　Span；　or　Chikou　Span；　which　is。last　nights。closing　price　plotted　twenty…six。days。ago；　is。a　bit　of　a　dark。horse。　It　is。also　difficult　to　review　the　chart　and　decide　whether　it　worked。　This。line　is。yet　another　in　the　series。that　indicates　where　today's。support　and　resistance　levels。lie。　
If　this　thick。black。line　is。above　the　candles。of　twenty…six　days。ago；　in　a　bull　market；　then　the　real　body　of　the　candles　should　ensure　that　today’s。closing　price　will　be　above　the　twenty…six…day…old　low　point。　It　is　a　bit　tricky　and　conceptually　very　different　from　Western　analysis。　Playing　with　time　lines；　shifting　things。forward　and　back。again；　is。certainly　not　the　usual　Western　approach。　This。is。precisely　why　the　method　adds。something　to　the　body　of　knowledge。　At　the　very　least　it　is。a　lot　more　than　a　repetition　of　traditional　methods　or　a　simple　tweaking　of　conventional　technical　analysis。　Interpreting　this　line　is。a　bit　like　surfing　a　wave　—　anticipating　both　the　arrival　of　a　good　one　and　when　it　might　collapse；　allowing　for　a　graceful　exit　rather　than　crash　and　bang。　
On　the　way。down；　the　indicators。are　exactly　the　opposite　of　what　they　were　on　the　way。up。　In　a　bear　market；　if　the　Lagging　Span　is。below　the　candles。of　twenty…six　days。ago　（ideally　a　cluster　of　tightly　grouped　ones）；　the　real　bodies。will　act　as。resistance。　Often　the　lagging　Span　weaves。itself　slowly　through　a　pattern　of　candles；　a　rectangle　for　example。　Then；　when　it　breaks。out　of　the　congestion　zone；　it　soars。or　plummets。dramatically。　In　other　words；　once　the　Lagging　Span　has。been　set　free；　today's。market　gathers。momentum　and　manages。a　big　move。　The　clouds。of　twenty…six　days。ago　also　act　as。support　and　resistance　for　this。black。line；　which　often　grinds。prices。lower　if　it　is。trapped　below　a　fat　cloud。　When　the　cloud　thins；　the　chances。of　the　Lagging　Span's。breaking　out　increase　significantly。　I　realize　this。is。a　difficult　concept　to　grasp。　The　twenty…six…day。lag　time　is　particularly　mysterious。　Why　should　what　happened　then　affect　here　and　now？　Nonetheless；　experience　hasnvinced　me　that　all　these　lines。do　work。well　together；　reinforcing　trends。and　underlining　where　the　key　levels。lie。　It　pays。to　bide　your　time；　respect　the　lines。and　patterns；　and　rid　yourself　of　too　many　preconceptions。　
I　look。at　the　Lagging　Span　（Chikou　Span）　very　closely　because　it　is。not　available　in　a　conventional　tool　kit。　（This。one　is。a　lot　easier　to　spot　when　working　in　color。）　Some　feel　that　using　a　displaced　price　（twenty…six　days。ago）　to　understand　today's。market　is。far…fetched。　It　is。a　little　like　being　a　time　traveler：　now；　tomorrow；　yesterday；　back…and…forward　juggling　with　a　total　fifty…two…day　period。　It's。a　bit　like　watching　a　seesaw；　wondering　which　way　it　will　tip　next。　I　find　this。a　truly　fascinating　idea　that　probably　warrants。further　investigation；　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo's。key　concept　is。that　price　and　time　are　inextricably　linked。　Just　as。with　today's。candles；　the　elements。that　provide　support　and　resistance　act　in　the　same　way　with　this。Lagging　Span。　So；　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　averages；　then　the　two　edges。of　the　cloud；　and　finally　the　candle　of　twenty…six　days。ago　also　provide　support　for　Chikou　Span　（not　all　day　long；　but　for　the　closing　price　of　today；　the　only　data　plotted）。　This。is。especially。strong　support　if　the　elements。cluster　together。　Interestingly；　if　the　market　was。moving　into　a　congestion　zone　twenty…six　days。ago；　then　probably　today's；　tomorrow's；　and　the　next　week's。worth　of　price　action　will　be　range…bound；　halting；　and　difficult。　This。is。because　the　old　candles。（especially　their　real　bodies）　limit　current　price　action　as。the　Lagging　Span　snakes。its。way　through　them。　I　don't　actually　know　how　or　why　this。works。　This。is。what　the　theory　says。and；　having　used　the　method　extensively；　I　can　say。that　it　really。does。work。quite　often。　Additionally；　this。is。a　theory　that　Mr。　Hosoda　back…tested　extensively　before　sharing　it　with　the　world。　
Could　this。be　a　self…fulfilling　theory？　Do　so　many　people　use　this。method　that　they。actually　create　it　by　their　actions？　The　evidence　is。against　this。　First；　paratively。speaking；　only　a　few　of　the　world's。technical　analysts。use　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo。　However；　in　Japan；　the　situation　is。reversed。　So　many　Japanese　dealersnstantly　refer　to　screens　with　this。type　of　chart　that　I　would　be　negligent　if　I　were　to　ignore　the　clouds。in　these　sectors。and　markets。　
Since　January　2004；　as。demonstrated　in　Figure　3。6；　the　U。S。　dollar/pound　currency。pair　has。been　moving　sideways。in　a　very　broad　band　between　1。7000　and　1。9200　（most　of　the　time）。　From　April　2006　to　date　it　has。been　trending　higher；　with　a　lengthy　consolidation　period　from　mid…May　to　late　July。　
Here's。how　the　different　Ichimoku　Kinko　tools。work。in　this。chart。　
Moving　average　crossovers。have　captured　the　significant　moves。throughout　but　are　mixed　at　the　moment。　The　Base　Line　is。often　flat。　
The　cloud；　which　was。incredibly　thin　until　early　April；　nevertheless。manages。to　keep　the　cable　（a　nickname　for　the　exchange　rate　between　the　U。S。　dollar　and　British　pound）　below　it。　Note　the　hammer　candle　on　April　3。　A　clear　break。and　daily　close　above　the　top　of　the　cloud　on　April　17　kicks。off　a　strong　rally。with　the　nine…day　average　limiting　the　lows。of　the　candles　on　the　way。up。　

The　moving　averages。cross。over　on　June　7；　and　prices。slide　suddenly　to　their　lowest　levels。in　a　month。　The　top　of　the　cloud　supports。the　candles。in　mid…June；　but　they　then　drop　to　the　lower　edge　of　what　is。by　then　a　fat　cloud　with　an　almost　horizontal　Leading　Span　2。　For　the　next　month　（until　July　26）　the　cable　snakes　its。way　sideways。limited　both　on　the　upside　and　on　the　downside　by　the　Leading　Spans。　Midway　through　this。period　the　averages。turn　bullish；　and　both　of　these　then　limit　daily　lows　until　September　5；　by　which　time　the　Leading　Spans。cross。　
Septembers。dip　to　1。8600　was。again　stopped　by　the　bottom　of　the　cloud；　and　the　last　prices。on　the　chart　are　just　above　the　top　of　it。　The　cloud　gets。fatter；　again　with　a　horizontal　lower　edge；　and　this　may　allow　the　pound　to　creep　higher　even　if　the　moving　averagesntinue　to　flip　around　each　other。　
The　lagging　Span；　not　surprisingly；　was。not　very　helpful　when　prices。were　moving　broadly　sideways。　Note　however　that　on　June　12　the　cloud　pushed　this。black。line　decidedly。higher；　acting　as。support　for　prices