list2-第33章

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between　the　imports　and　exports；　as　well　as　all　the　other



economical　circumstances　of　the　nation；　would　regulate　themselves



in　the　safest　and　best　manner　by　the　operation　of　the　natural



course　of　things。



　　　　This　argument　is　perfectly　correct　as　respects　the　internal



interchange　of　a　nation；　it　is　demonstrated　in　the　commercial



intercourse　between　town　and　town；　between　town　and　country



districts；　between　province　and　province；　as　in　the　union　between



State　and　State。　Any　political　economist　would　be　deserving　of　pity



who　believed　that　the　balance　of　the　mutual　imports　and　exports



between　the　various　states　of　the　American　Union　or　the　German



Zollverein；　or　between　England；　Scotland；　and　Ireland；　can　be



regulated　better　through　State　regulations　and　laws　than　through



free　interchange。　On　the　hypothesis　that　a　similar　union　existed



between　the　various　states　and　nations　of　the　earth；　the　argument



of　the　theory　of　trusting　to　the　natural　course　of　things　would　be



quite　consistent。　Nothing；　however；　is　more　contrary　to　experience



than　to　suppose　under　the　existing　conditions　of　the　world　that　in



international　exchange　things　act　with　similar　effect。



　　　　The　imports　and　exports　of　independent　nations　are　regulated



and　controlled　at　present　not　by　what　the　popular　theory　calls　the



natural　course　of　things；　but　mostly　by　the　commercial　policy　and



the　power　of　the　nation；　by　the　influence　of　these　on　the



conditions　of　the　world　and　on　foreign　countries　and　peoples；　by



colonial　possessions　and　internal　credit　establishments；　or　by　war



and　peace。　Here；　accordingly；　all　conditions　shape　themselves　in　an



entirely　different　manner　than　between　societies　which　are　united



by　political；　legal；　and　administrative　bonds　in　a　state　of



unbroken　peace　and　of　perfect　unity　of　interests。



　　　　Let　us　take　into　consideration　as　an　example　the　conditions



between　England　and　North　America。　If　England　from　time　to　time



throws　large　masses　of　manufactured　goods　on　to　the　North　American



market；　if　the　Bank　of　England　stimulates　or　restricts；　in　an



extraordinary　degree；　the　exports　to　North　America　and　the　credit



granted　to　her　by　its　raising　or　lowering　its　discount　rates；　if；



in　addition　to　and　as　a　consequence　of　this　extraordinary　glut　of



the　American　market　for　manufactured　goods；　it　happens　that　the



English　manufactured　goods　can　be　obtained　cheaper　in　North　America



than　in　England；　nay；　sometimes　much　below　the　cost　price　of



production；　if　thus　North　America　gets　into　a　state　of　perpetual



indebtedness　and　of　an　unfavourable　condition　of　exchange　towards



England；　yet　would　this　disorganised　state　of　things　readily



rectify　itself　under　a　state　of　perfectly　unrestricted　exchange



between　the　two　countries。　North　America　produces　tobacco；　timber；



corn；　and　all　sorts　of　means　of　subsistence　very　much　cheaper　than



England　does。　The　more　English　manufactured　goods　go　to　North



America；　the　greater　are　the　means　and　inducements　to　the　American



planter　to　produce　commodities　of　value　sufficient　to　exchange　for



them；　the　more　credit　is　given　to　him　the　greater　is　the　impulse　to



procure　for　himself　the　means　of　discharging　his　liabilities；　the



more　the　rate　of　exchange　on　England　is　to　the　disadvantage　of



North　America；　the　greater　is　the　inducement　to　export　American



agricultural　products；　and　hence　the　more　successful　will　be　the



competition　of　the　American　agriculturist　in　the　English　produce



market。



　　　　In　consequence　of　these　exportations　the　adverse　rate　of



exchange　would　speedily　rectify　itself；　indeed；　it　could　not　even



reach　any　very　unfavourable　point；　because　the　certain　anticipation



in　North　America　that　the　indebtedness　which　had　been　contracted



through　the　large　importation　of　manufactured　goods　in　the　course



of　the　present　year；　would　equalise　itself　through　the　surplus



production　and　increased　exports　of　the　coming　year；　would　be



followed　by　easier　accommodation　in　the　money　market　and　in　credit。



　　　　Such　would　be　the　state　of　things　if　the　interchange　between



the　English　manufacturer　and　the　American　agriculturist　were　as



little　restricted　as　the　interchange　between　the　English



manufacturer　and　the　Irish　agriculturist　is。　But　they　are　and　must



be　different：　if　England　imposes　a　duty　on　American　tobacco　of　from



five　hundred　to　one　thousand　per　cent；　if　she　renders　the



importation　of　American　timber　impossible　by　her　tariffs；　and



admits　the　American　means　of　subsistence　only　in　the　event　of



famine；　for　at　present　the　American　agricultural　production　cannot



balance　itself　with　the　American　consumption　of　English



manufactured　goods；　nor　can　the　debt　incurred　for　those　goods　be



liquidated　by　agricultural　products；　at　present　the　American



exports　to　England　are　limited　by　narrow　bounds；　while　the　English



exports　to　North　America　are　practically　unlimited；　the　rate　of



exchange　between　both　countries　under　such　circumstances　cannot



equalise　itself；　and　the　indebtedness　of　America　towards　England



must　be　discharged　by　exports　of　bullion　to　the　latter　country。



　　　　These　exports　of　bullion；　however；　as　they　undermine　the



American　system　of　paper　circulation；　necessarily　lead　to　the　ruin



of　the　credit　of　the　American　banks；　and　therewith　to　general



revolutions　in　the　prices　of　landed　property　and　of　the　goods　in



circulation；　and　especially　to　those　general　confusions　of　prices



and　credit　which　derange　and　overturn　the　economy　of　the　nation；



and　with　which；　we　may　observe；　that　the　North　American　free　States



are　visited　whenever　they　have　found　them　selves　unable　to　restore



a　balance　between　their　imports　and　their　exports　by　S　tate　tariff



regulations。



　　　　It　cannot　afford　any　great　consolation　to　the　North　American



that　in　consequence　of　bankruptcies　and　diminished　consumption；　the



imports　and　exports　between　both　countries　are　at　a　later　period



restored　to　a　tolerable　proportion　to　one　another。　For　the



destruction　and　convulsions　of　commerce　and　in　credit；　as　well　as



the　reduction　in　consumption；　are　attended　with　disadvantages　to



the　welfare　and　happiness　of　individuals　and　to　public　order；　from



which　one　cannot　very　quickly　recover　and　the　frequent　repetition



of　which　must　necessarily　leave　permanently；　ruinous　consequences。



　　　　Still　less　can　it　afford　any　consolation　to　the　North



Americans；　if　the　popular　theory　maintains　that　it　is　an



indifferent　matter　whether　large　or　small　quantities　of　precious



metals　are　in　circulation；　that　we　exchange　products　merely　for



products；　whether　this　exchange　is　made　by　means　of　large　or　small



quantities　of　metallic　circulation　is　of　no　importance　to



individuals。　To　the　producer　or　proprietor　it　certainly　may　be　of



no　consequence　whether　the　object　of　his　production　or　of　his



possession　is　worth　100　centimes　or　100　francs；　provided　always



that　he　can　procure　with　the　100　centimes　as　large　a　quantity　of



objects　of　necessity　and　of　enjoyment　as　he　can　with　the　100



francs。　But　low　or　high　prices　are　thus　a　matter　of　indifference



only　in　case　they　remain　on　the　same　footing　uninterruptedly　for　a



long　period　of　time。



　　　　If；　however；　they　fluctuate　frequently　and　violently；



disarrangements　arise　which　throw　the　economy　of　every　individual；



as　well　as　that　of　society；　into　confusion。　Whoever　has　purchased



raw　materials　at　high　prices；　cannot　under　low　prices；　by　the　sale



of　his　manufactured　article；　realise　again　that　sum　in　precious



metals　which　his　raw　materials　have　cost　him。　Whoever　has　bought　at



high　prices　landed　property　and　has　left　a　portion　of　the　purchase



money　as　a　mortgage　debt　upon　it；　loses　his　ability　of　payment　and



his　property；　because；　under　diminished　prices；　probably　the　value



of　the　entire　property　will　scarcely　equal　the　amount　of　the



mortgage。　Whoever　has　taken　leases　of　property　under　a　state　of



high　prices；　finds　himself　ruined　by　the　decrease　in　prices；　or　at



least　unable　to　fulfil　the　covenants　of　his　leases。　The　greater　the



rising　and　falling　of　prices；　and　the　more　frequently　that



fluctuations　occur；　the　more　ruinous　is　their　effect　on　the



economical　conditions　of　the　nation　and　especially　on　credit。　But



nowhere　are　these　disadvantageous　effects　of　the　unusual　influx　or



efflux　of　precious　metals　seen　in　a　more　glaring　light　than　in



those　countries　which　are　entirely　dependent　on　foreign　nations　in



respect　of　their　manufacturing　requirements　and　the　sale　of　their



own　products；　and　whose　commercial　transactions　are　chiefly　based



on　paper　circulation。



　　　　It　is　acknowledged　that　the　quantity　of　bank　notes　which　a



country　is　able　to　put　into　and　to　maintain　in　circulation；　is



dependent　on　the　largeness　of　the　amount　of　metallic　money　which　it



possesses。　Every　bank　will　endeavour　to　extend　or　limit　its　paper



circulation　and　its　business　in　proportion　to　the　amount　of



precious　metals　lying　in　its　vaults。　If　the　increase　in　its　own



money　capital　or　in　deposits　is　large；　it　will　give　more　credit；



and　through　this　credit；　increase　the　credit　given　by　its　debtors；



and　by　so　doing　raise　the　amount　of　consumption　and　prices；



especially　those　of　landed　property。　If；　on　the　contrary；　an　efflux



of　precious　metals　is　perceptible；　such　a　bank　will　limit　its



credit；　and　thereby　occasion　restriction　of　credit　and　consumption



by　its　debtors；　and　by　the　debtors　of　its　debtors；　and　so　on　to



those　who　by　credit　are　engaged　in　bringing　into　consumption　the



imported　manufactured　goods。　In　such　countries；　therefore；　the



whole　system　of　credit；　the　market　for　goods　and　products；　and



especially　the　money　value　of　all　landed　property；　is　thrown　into



confusion　by　any　unusual　drain　of　metallic　money。



　　　　The　cause　of　the　latest　as　well　as　of　former　American



commercial　crises；　has　been　alleged　to　exist　in　the　American



banking　and　paper　system。　The　truth　is　that　the　banks　have　helped



to　bring　about　these　crises　in　the　manner　above　named；　but　the　main



cause　of　their　occurrence　is　that　since　the　introduction　of　the　'



compromise；　bill　the　value　of　the　English　manufactured　goods　has



far　surpassed　the　value　of　the　exported　American　products；　and　that



thereby　the　United　States　have　become　indebted　to　the　English　to



the　amount　of　several　hundreds　of　millions　for　which　they　could　not



pay　in　products。　The　proof　that　these　crises　are　occas