the.world.is.flat-第13章

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and　Microsoft　started　to　do　the　same　with　Windows　95；　considering　browsing　so　critical　
that　it　famously　built　its　own　browser　directly　into　Windows　with　the　addition　of　
Internet　Explorer。　Each　realized　that　the　public；　which　suddenly　could　not　get　enough　
of　e…mail　and　browsing；　wanted　the　Internet　companies　to　work　together　and　create　
one　interoperable　network。　They　wanted　companies　to　compete　with　each　other　over　
different　applications；　that　is；　over　what　consumers　could　do　once　they　were　on　the　
Internet…not　over　how　they　got　on　the　Internet　in　the　first　place。　As　a　result；　after　
quite　a　few　〃format　wars〃　among　the　big　companies；　by　the　late　1990s　the　Internet　
computing　platform　became　seamlessly　integrated。　Soon　anyone　was　able　to　connect　with　
anyone　else　anywhere　on　any　machine。　It　turned　out　that　the　value　of　compatibility　
was　much　higher　for　everyone　than　the　value　of　trying　to　maintain　your　own　little　
walled　network。　This　integration　was　a　huge　flattener；　because　it　enabled　so　many　
more　people　to　get　connected　with　so　many　more　other　people。　


There　was　no　shortage　of　skeptics　at　the　time；　who　said　that　none　of　this　would　work　
because　it　was　all　too　complicated；　recalled　Andreessen。　'Tou　had　to　go　out　and　get　
a　PC　and　a　dial…up　modem。　The　skeptics　all　said；　'It　takes　people　a　long　time　to　change　
their　habits　and　learn　a　new　technology。'　＇But＇　people　did　it　very　quickly；　and　ten　
years　later　there　were　eight　hundred　million　people　on　the　Internet。〃　The　reason？　
〃People　will　change　their　habits　quickly　when　they　have　a　strong　reason　to　do　so；　
and　people　have　an　innate　urge　to　connect　with　other　people；〃　
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said　Andreessen。　〃And　when　you　give　people　a　new　way　to　connect　with　other　people；　
they　will　punch　through　any　technical　barrier；　they　will　learn　new　languages…people　
are　wired　to　want　to　connect　with　other　people　and　they　find　it　objectionable　not　
to　be　able　to。　That　is　what　Netscape　unlocked。〃　As　Joel　Cawley；　IBM's　vice　president　
of　corporate　strategy；　put　it；　〃Netscape　created　a　standard　around　how　data　would　
be　transported　and　rendered　on　the　screen　that　was　so　simple　and　compelling　that　anyone　
and　everyone　could　innovate　on　top　of　it。　It　quickly　scaled　around　the　world　and　to　
everyone　from　kids　to　corporations。〃　
In　the　summer　of　1995；　Barksdale　and　his　Netscape　colleagues　went　on　an　old…fashioned　
road　show　with　their　investment　bankers　from　Morgan　Stanley　to　try　to　entice　investors　
around　the　country　to　buy　Netscape　stock　once　it　went　public。　〃When　we　went　out　on　
the　road；〃　said　Barksdale；　〃Morgan　Stanley　said　the　stock　could　sell　for　as　high　as　
14。　But　after　the　road　show　got　going；　they　were　getting　such　demand　for　the　stock；　
they　decidedto　double　the　openingprice　to　28。　The　last　afternoon　before　the　offering；　
we　were　all　in　Maryland。　It　was　our　last　stop。　We　had　this　caravan　of　black　limousines。　
We　looked　like　some　kind　of　Mafia　group。　We　needed　to　be　in　touch　with　Morgan　Stanley　
＇headquarters＇；　but　we　were　somewhere　where　our　cell　phones　didn't　work。　So　we　pulled　
into　these　two　filling　stations　across　from　each　other；　all　these　black　limos；　to　
use　the　phones。　We　called　up　Morgan　Stanley；　and　they　said；　'We're　thinking　ofbringing　
it　out　at　31。'　I　said；　'No；　let's　keep　it　at　28；'　because　I　wanted　people　to　remember　
it　as　a　20　stock；　not　a　30　stock；　just　in　case　it　didn't　go　so　well。　So　then　the　
next　morning　I　get　on　the　conference　call　and　the　thing　opened　at　71。　It　closed　the　
day　at　56；　exactly　twice　the　price　I　set。〃　
Netscape　eventually　fell　victim　to　overwhelming　（and；　the　courts　decided；　
monopolistic）　competitive　pressure　from　Microsoft。　Microsoft's　decision　to　give　away　
its　browser；　Internet　Explorer；　as　part　of　its　dominant　Windows　operating　system；　
combined　with　its　ability　to　throw　more　programmers　at　Web　browsing　than　Netscape；　
led　to　the　increasing　slippage　of　Netscape's　market　share。　In　the　end；　Netscape　was　
sold　for　10　billion　to　AOL；　which　never　did　much　with　it。　But　though　Netscape　may　
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have　been　only　a　shooting　star　in　commercial　terms；　what　a　star　it　was；　and　what　a　
trail　it　left。　
〃We　were　profitable　almost　from　the　start；〃　said　Barksdale。　〃Netscape　was　not　a　
dot…com。　We　did　not　participate　in　the　dot…com　bubble。　We　started　the　dot…com　bubble。〃　
And　what　a　bubble　it　was。　〃Netscape　going　public　stimulated　a　lot　of　things；〃　said　
Barksdale。　〃The　technologists　loved　the　new　technology　things　it　could　do；　and　the　


businesspeople　and　regular　folks　got　excited　about　how　much　money　they　could　make。　
People　saw　all　those　young　kids　making　money　out　of　this　and　said；　'If　those　young　
kids　can　do　this　and　make　all　that　money；　I　can　too。'　Greed　can　be　a　bad　thing…folks　
thought　they　could　make　a　lot　of　money　without　a　lot　of　work。　It　certainly　led　to　
a　degree　of　overinvestment；　putting　it　mildly。　Every　sillier　and　sillier　idea　got　
funded。〃　
What　was　it　that　stimulated　investors　to　believe　that　demand　for　Internet　usage　and　
Internet…related　products　would　be　infinite？　The　short　answer　is　digitization。　Once　
the　PC…Windows　revolution　demonstrated　to　everyone　the　value　of　being　able　to　digitize　
information　and　manipulate　it　on　computers　and　word　processors；　and　once　the　browser　
brought　the　Internet　alive　and　made　Web　pages　sing　and　dance　and　display；　everyone　
wanted　everything　digitized　as　much　as　possible　so　they　could　send　it　to　someone　else　
down　the　Internet　pipes。　Thus　began　the　digitization　revolution。　Digitization　is　that　
magic　process　by　which　words；　music；　data；　films；　files；　and　pictures　are　turned　into　
bits　and　bytes…combinations　of　Is　and　Os…that　can　be　manipulated　on　a　computer　screen；　
stored　on　a　microprocessor；　or　transmitted　over　satellites　and　fiber…optic　lines。　
It　used　to　be　the　post　office　was　where　I　went　to　send　my　mail；　but　once　the　Internet　
came　alive；　I　wanted　my　mail　digitized　so　I　could　e…mail　it。　Photography　used　to　be　
a　cumbersome　process　involving　film　coated　with　silver　dug　up　from　mines　halfway　
across　the　world。　I　used　to　take　some　pictures　with　my　camera；　then　bring　the　film　
to　the　drugstore　to　be　sent　off　to　a　big　plant　somewhere　for　processing。　But　once　
the　Internet　made　it　possible　to　send　pictures　around　the　world；　

attached　to　or　in　e…mails；　I　didn't　want　to　use　silver　film　anymore。　I　wanted　to　take　
pictures　in　the　digital　format；　which　could　be　uploaded；　not　developed。　（And　by　the　
way；　I　didn't　want　to　be　confined　to　using　a　camera　to　take　them。　I　wanted　to　be　able　
to　use　my　cell　phone　to　do　it。）　I　used　to　have　to　go　to　Barnes　&　Noble　to　buy　and　
browse　books；　but　once　the　Internet　came　alive；　I　wanted　to　browse　for　books　digitally　
on　Amazon。com　as　well。　I　used　to　go　to　the　library　to　do　research；　but　now　I　wanted　
to　do　it　digitally　through　Google　or　Yahoo！；　not　just　by　roaming　the　stacks。　I　used　
to　buy　a　CD　to　listen　to　Simon　and　Garfunkel…CDs　had　already　replaced　albums　as　a　
form　of　digitized　music…but　once　the　Internet　came　alive；　I　wanted　those　music　bits　
to　be　even　more　malleable　and　mobile。　I　wanted　to　be　able　to　download　them　into　an　
iPod。　In　recent　years　the　digitization　technology　evolved　so　I　could　do　just　that。　
Well；　as　investors　watched　this　mad　rush　to　digitize　everything；　they　said　to　
themselves；　〃Holy　cow。　If　everyone　wants　all　this　stuff　digitized　and　turned　into　
bits　and　transmitted　over　the　Internet；　the　demand　for　Web　service　companies　and　the　
demand　for　fiber…optic　cables　to　handle　all　this　digitized　stuff　around　the　world　
is　going　to　be　limitless！　You　cannot　lose　if　you　invest　in　this！〃　
And　thus　was　the　bubble　born。　
Overinvestment　is　not　necessarily　a　bad　thing…provided　that　it　is　eventually　
corrected。　I'll　always　remember　a　news　conference　that　Microsoft　chairman　Bill　Gates　
held　at　the　1999　World　Economic　Forum　in　Davos；　at　the　height　of　the　tech　bubble。　
Over　and　over　again；　Gates　was　bombarded　by　reporters　with　versions　of　the　question；　


〃Mr。　Gates；　these　Internet　stocks；　they're　a　bubble；　right？　Surely　they're　a　bubble。　
They　must　be　a　bubble？〃　Finally　an　exasperated　Gates　said　to　the　reporters　something　
to　the　effect　of；　〃Look；　you　bozos；　of　course　they're　a　bubble；　but　you're　all　missing　
the　point。　This　bubble　is　attracting　so　much　new　capital　to　this　Internet　industry；　
it　is　going　to　drive　innovation　faster　and　faster。〃　Gates　compared　the　Internet　to　
the　gold　rush；　the　idea　being　that　more　money　was　made　selling　Levi's；　picks；　shovels；　
and　hotel　rooms　to　the　gold　diggers　than　from　digging　up　gold　from　the　earth。　Gates　
was　right：　Booms　and　bubbles　may　be　economically　dangerous；　they　may　end　up　with　many　
people　losing　money　and　a　lot　of　companies　
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going　bankrupt。　But　they　also　often　do　drive　innovation　faster　and　faster；　and　the　
sheer　overcapacity　that　they　spur…whether　it　is　in　railroad　lines　or　automobiles…can　
create　its　own　unintended　positive　consequences。　
That　is　what　happened　with　the　Internet　stock　boom。　It　sparked　a　huge　overinvestment　
in　fiber…optic　cable　companies；　which　then　laid　massive　amounts　of　fiber…optic　cable　
on　land　and　under　the　oceans；　which　dramatically　drove　down　the　cost　of　making　a　phone　
call　or　transmitting　data　anywhere　in　the　world。　
The　first　commercial　installation　of　a　fiber…optic　system　was　in　1977；　after　which　
fiber　slowly　began　to　replace　copper　telephone　wires；　because　it　could　carry　data　
and　digitized　voices　much　farther　and　faster　in　larger　quantities。　According　to　
Howstuffworks。com；　fiber　optics　are　made　up　of　strands　of　optically　pure　glass　each　
〃as　thin　as　a　human　hair；〃　which　are　arranged　in　bundles；　called　〃optical　cables；〃　
to　carry　digitized　packets　of　information　over　long　distances。　Because　these　optical　
fibers　are　so　much　thinner　than　copper　wires；　more　fibers　can　be　bundled　into　a　given　
diameter　of　cable　than　can　copper　wires；　which　means　that　much　more　data　or　many　more　
voices　can　be　sent　over　the　same　cable　at　a　lower　cost。　The　most　important　benefit　
of　fiber；　though；　derives　from　the　dramatically　higher　bandwidth　of　the　signals　it　
can　transport　over　long　distances。　Copper　wires　can　carry　very　high　frequencies　too；　
but　only　for　a　few　feet　before　the　signal　starts　to　degrade　in　strength　due　to　certain　
parasitic　effects。　Optical　fibers；　by　contrast；　can　carry　very　high…frequency　optical　
pulses　on　the　same　individual　fiber　without　substantial　signal　degradation　for　many；　
many　miles。　
The　way　fiber…optic　cables　work；　explains　one　of　the　manufacturers；　ARC　Electronics；　
on　its　Web　site；　is　by　converting　data　or　voices　into　light　pulses　and　then　
transmitting　them　down　fiber　lines；　instead　of　using　electronic　pulses　to　transmit　
information　down　copper　lines。　At　one　end　of　the　fiber…optic　system　is　a　transmitter。　
The　transmitter　accepts　coded　electronic　pulse　information…words　or　data…coming　from　
copper　wire　out　of　your　home　telephone　or　office　computer。　The　transmitter　then　
processes　and　translates　those　digitized；　electronically　coded　words　or　data　into　
equivalently　coded　light　pulses。　A　light…emitting　diode　（LED）　
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or　an　injection…laser　diode　（ILD）　can　be　used　to　generate　the　light　pulses；　which　
are　then　funneled　down　the　fiber…optic　cab