the.world.is.flat-第66章

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me　of　a　trip　I　had　just　taken　to　Dalian；　China。　I　had　been　to　Dalian　in　1998；　and　
when　I　went　back　in　2004；1　did　not　recognize　the　city。　There　were　so　many　new　buildings；　
including　modern　glass…and…steel　towers；　that　I　began　to　question　whether　I　had　
actually　visited　there　in　1998。　Then　I　added　another　recollection。　I　went　to　school　
in　Cairo　in　the　summer　of　1974。　The　three　most　prominent　buildings　in　the　city　then　
were　the　Nile　Hilton；　the　Cairo　Tower；　and　the　Egyptian　TV　build

ing。　Thirty　years　later；　in　2004；　they　are　still　the　most　prominent　buildings　there；　
the　Cairo　skyline　has　barely　changed。　Whenever　I　go　back　to　Cairo；　I　know　exactly　
where　I　am。　I　visited　Mexico　City　shortly　before　Dalian；　where　I　had　not　visited　in　
five　years。　I　found　it　much　cleaner　than　I　had　remembered；　thanks　to　a　citywide　
campaign　by　the　mayor。　There　were　also　a　few　new　buildings　up；　but　not　as　many　as　
I　expected　after　a　decade　of　NAFTA。　Inside　the　buildings；　though；　I　found　my　Mexican　
friends　a　little　depressed。　They　told　me　that　Mexico　had　lost　its　groove…it　just　
wasn't　growing　like　it　had　been；　and　people's　self…confidence　was　waning。　
So　in　Delhi；　you　can　see　forever。　In　Cairo；　the　skyline　seems　forever　the　same。　In　
China；　if　you　miss　visiting　a　city　for　a　year；　it's　like　you　haven't　been　there　in　
forever。　And　in　Mexico　City；　just　when　Mexicans　thought　they　had　turned　the　corner　
forever；　they　ran　smack　into　China；　coming　the　other　way　and　running　much　faster。　
What　explains　these　differences？　We　know　the　basic　formula　for　economic　
success…reform　wholesale；　followed　by　reform　retail；　plus　good　governance；　education；　
infrastructure；　and　the　ability　to　glocalize。　What　we　don't　know；　though；　and　what　
I　would　bottle　and　sell　if　I　did；　is　the　answer　to　the　question　of　why　one　country　
gets　its　act　together　to　do　all　these　things　in　a　sustained　manner　and　why　another　
one　doesn't。　Why　does　one　country's　skyline　change　overnight　and　another's　doesn't　
change　over　half　a　century？　The　only　answer　I　have　been　able　to　find　is　something　
that　cannot　be　defined：　I　call　it　the　intangible　things。　These　are　primarily　two　
qualities：　a　society's　ability　and　willingness　to　pull　together　and　sacrifice　for　
the　sake　of　economic　development　and　the　presence　in　a　society　of　leaders　with　the　
vision　to　see　what　needs　to　be　done　in　terms　of　development　and　the　willingness　to　
use　power　to　push　for　change　rather　than　to　enrich　themselves　and　preserve　the　status　
quo。　Some　countries　（such　as　Korea　and　Taiwan）　seem　to　be　able　to　focus　their　energies　
on　the　priority　of　economic　development；　and　others　（such　as　Egypt　and　Syria）　get　
distracted　by　ideology　or　local　feuds。　Some　countries　have　leaders　who　use　their　time　
in　office　to　try　to　drive　modernization　rather　than　personally　enrich　themselves。　
And　some　countries　simply　have　venal　elites；　who　use　their　time　in　office　to　line　
their　pockets　


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and　then　invest　those　riches　in　Swiss　real　estate。　Why　India　had　leaders　who　built　
institutes　of　technology　and　Pakistan　had　leaders　who　did　not　is　a　product　of　history；　
geography；　and　culture　that　I　can　only　summarize　as　one　of　those　intangible　things。　
But　even　though　these　intangibles　are　not　easily　measured；　they　really　do　matter。　
The　best　way　I　know　to　illustrate　this　is　by　comparing　Mexico　and　China。　Mexico；　on　
paper；　seemed　perfectly　positioned　to　thrive　in　a　flat　world。　It　was　right　next　door　
to　the　biggest；　most　powerful　economy　in　the　world。　It　signed　a　free…trade　agreement　
with　the　United　States　and　Canada　in　the　1990s　and　was　poised　to　be　a　springboard　
to　Latin　America　for　both　these　huge　economies。　And　it　had　a　valuable　natural　resource　
in　oil；　which　accountedfor　more　than　a　third　ofgovernment　income。　China；　by　contrast；　
was　thousands　of　miles　away；　burdened　by　overpopulation；　with　few　natural　resources；　
with　its　best　labor　crowded　onto　a　coastal　plain；　and　with　a　burdensome　debt　legacy　
from　fifty　years　of　Communist　rule。　Ten　years　ago；　if　you　took　the　names　off　these　
two　countries　andjust　gave　someone　their　profiles；　he　surely　would　have　bet　on　Mexico。　
And　yet　China　has　replaced　Mexico　as　the　second…largest　exporter　of　goods　into　the　
United　States。　And　there　is　a　general　sense；　even　among　Mexicans；　that　even　though　
China　is　thousands　of　miles　away　from　America；　it　is　growing　closer　to　America　
economically；　while　Mexico；　right　on　America's　border；　is　becoming　thousands　of　miles　
away。　
I　am　by　no　means　writing　Mexico　off。　Mexico；　in　the　fullness　of　time；　may　turn　out　
to　be　the　slow…but…sure　tortoise　to　China's　hare。　China　still　has　a　huge　political　
transition　to　get　through；　which　could　derail　it　at　any　moment。　Moreover；　Mexico　has　
many　entrepreneurs　who　are　as　Chinese　as　the　most　entrepreneurial　Chinese。　Mexico　
would　not　have　exported　138　billion　worth　of　goods　to　the　United　States　in　2003　if　
that　were　not　the　case。　And　you　have　many　rural　Chinese　who　are　no　more　advanced　or　
productive　than　rural　Mexicans。　But　on　balance；　when　you　add　it　all　up；　the　fact　is　
that　China　has　become　the　hare　and　Mexico　has　not；　even　though　Mexico　seemed　to　start　
with　so　many　more　natural　advantages　when　the　world　went　flat。　Why？　
This　is　a　question　Mexicans　themselves　are　asking。　When　you　go　to　Mexico　City　these　
days；　Mexicans　will　tell　you　that　they　are　hearing　that　
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〃giant　sucking　sound〃　in　stereo。　〃We　are　caught　between　India　and　China；〃　Jorge　
Castaneda；　Mexico's　former　foreign　minister；　told　me　in　2004。　〃It　is　very　difficult　
for　us　to　compete　with　the　Chinese；　except　with　high…value…added　industries。　Where　
we　should　be　competing；　the　services　area；　we　are　hit　by　the　Indians　with　their　back　
offices　and　call　centers。〃　
No　doubt　China　is　benefiting　to　some　degree　from　the　fact　that　it　still　has　an　
authoritarian　system　that　can　steamroll　vested　interests　and　archaic　practices。　
Beijing's　leadership　can　order　many　reforms　from　the　top　down；　whether　it　is　a　new　
road　or　accession　to　the　World　Trade　Organization。　But　China　today　also　has　better　
intangibles…an　ability　to　summon　and　focus　local　energies　on　reform　retail。　China　
may　be　an　authoritarian　state；　but　it　nevertheless　has　strong　state　institutions　and　
a　bureaucracy　that　manages　to　promote　a　lot　of　people　on　merit　to　key　decision…making　


positions；　and　it　has　a　certain　public…spiritedness。　The　Mandarin　tradition　of　
promoting　bureaucrats　who　see　their　role　as　promoting　and　protecting　the　interests　
of　the　state　is　still　alive　and　well　in　China。　〃China　has　a　tradition　of　meritocracy…a　
tradition　that　is　also　carried　on　in　Korea　and　Japan；〃　said　Francis　Fukuyama；　author　
of　the　classic　The　End　of　History　and　the　Last　Man。　〃All　of　them　also　have　a　basic　
sense　of'stateness'　where　＇public　servants＇　are　expected　to　look　to　the　long…term　
interests　of　the　state〃　and　are　rewarded　by　the　system　for　doing　so。　
Mexico；　by　contrast；　moved　during　the　1990s　from　a　basically　one…party　authoritarian　
state　to　a　multiparty　democracy。　So　just　when　Mexico　needs　to　summon　all　its　will　
and　energy　for　reform　retail　on　the　micro　level；　it　has　to　go　through　the　much　slower；　
albeit　more　legitimate；　democratic　process　of　constituency　building。　In　other　words；　
any　Mexican　president　who　wants　to　make　changes　has　to　aggregate　so　many　more　interest　
groups…like　herding　cats…to　implement　a　reform　than　his　autocratic　predecessors；　who　
could　have　done　it　by　fiat。　A　lot　of　these　interest　groups；　whether　unions　or　oligarchs；　
have　powerful　vested　interests　in　the　status　quo　and　the　power　to　strangle　reforms。　
And　Mexico's　state　system；　like　that　of　so　many　of　its　Latin　American　neighbors；　has　
a　long　history　of　simply　being　an　instrument　of　patronage　for　the　ruling　party　or　
local　interests；　not　the　national　interest。　
Another　of　these　intangible　things　is　how　much　your　culture　prizes　

education。　India　and　China　both　have　a　long　tradition　of　parents　telling　their　
children　that　the　greatest　thing　they　can　be　in　life　is　an　engineer　or　a　doctor。　But　
building　the　schools　to　make　that　happen　in　Mexico　simply　has　not　been　done。　India　
and　China　each　have　more　than　fifty　thousand　students　studying　in　the　United　States　
today。　They　come　from　about　twelve　time　zones　away。　Mexico；　which　is　smaller　but　right　
next　door；　has　only　about　ten　thousand。　Mexico　is　also　right　next　door　to　the　world's　
biggest　economy；　which　speaks　English。　But　Mexico　has　not　launched　any　crash　program　
in　English　education　or　invested　in　scholarships　to　send　large　numbers　of　Mexican　
students　to　the　United　States　to　study。　There　is　a　〃disconnect；〃　said　President　
Zedillo；　among　Mexico's　political　establishment；　the　challenges　of　globalization；　
and　the　degree　to　which　anyone　is　educating　and　harnessing　the　Mexican　public　to　this　
task。　You　would　have　to　look　a　long　time　for　a　graduate　science　or　math　program　at　
an　American　university　that　is　dominated　by　Mexican　students　the　way　most　are　
dominated　by　Chinese　and　Indian　students。　
The　government　of　President　Vicente　Fox　had　set　out　five　areas　for　reform　retail　to　
make　the　Mexican　economy　more　productive　and　flexible：　labor　market　reform　to　make　
it　easier　to　hire　and　fire　workers；　judicial　reform　to　make　Mexico's　courts　less　
corrupt　and　capricious；　electoral　and　constitutional　reform　to　rationalize　politics；　
tax　collection　reform　to　increase　the　country's　dismal　tax　harvest；　and　energy　reform　
to　open　the　energy　and　electricity　markets　to　foreign　investors　so　that　Mexico；　a　
major　oil　producer；　gets　out　of　the　crazy　bind　of　importing　some　natural　gas　and　
gasoline　from　America。　But　almost　all　of　these　initiatives　got　stalled　in　the　Mexican　
parliament。　
It　would　be　easy　to　conclude　from　just　looking　at　Mexico　and　China　that　democracy　


may　be　a　hindrance　to　reform　retail。　I　think　it　is　premature　to　conclude　that。　I　think　
the　real　issue　is　leadership。　There　are　democracies　that　are　blessed　with　leaders　
who　are　able　to　make　the　sale　and　get　their　people　focused　on　reform　retail…Margaret　
Thatcher　in　England　comes　to　mind…and　there　are　democracies　that　drift　for　a　long　
time　without　biting　the　bullet…modern　Germany；　for　example。　There　are　autocracies　
that　really　get　focused…modern　China…and　there　are　others　that　just　drift　aimlessly；　
unwilling　really　to　summon　their　people　
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because　the　leaders　are　so　illegitimate　they　are　afraid　of　inflicting　any　
pain…Zimbabwe。　
Mexico　and　Latin　America　generally　have　〃fantastic　potential；〃　says　President　Zedillo。　
〃Latin　America　was　ahead　of　everyone　thirty　years　ago；　but　for　twenty…five　years　we　
have　been　basically　stagnant　and　the　others　are　moving　closer　and　well　ahead。　Our　
political　systems　are　not　capable　of　processing　and　adopting　and　executing　those　
＇reform　retail＇　ideas。　We　are　still　discussing　prehistory。　Things　that　are　taken　for　
granted　everywhere　we　are　still　discussing　as　if　we　are　living　in　the　1960s。　To　this　
day　you　cannot　speak　openly　about　a　market　economy　in　Latin　America。〃　China　is　moving　
every　month；　added　Zedillo；　〃and　we　are　taking　years　and　years　to　decide　on　elementary　
reforms　whose　needs　should　be　strikingly　urgent　for　any　human　being。　We　are　not　
competitive　because　we