war and the future-第11章

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humanly　possible　all　mention　of　Napoleon's　campaigns。

The　development　of　war　has　depended　largely　upon　two　factors。
One　of　these　is　invention。　　New　weapons　and　new　methods　have
become　available；　and　have　modified　tactics；　strategy；　the
relative　advantage　of　offensive　and　defensive。　　The　other　chief
factor　in　the　evolution　of　the　war　has　been　social　organisation。
As　Machiavelli　points　out　in　his　/Art　of　War/；　there　was
insufficient　social　stability　in　Europe　to　keep　a　properly
trained　and　disciplined　infantry　in　the　field　from　the　passing　of
the　Roman　legions　to　the　appearance　of　the　Swiss　footmen。　　he
makes　it　very　clear　that　he　considers　the　fighting　of　the　Middle
Ages；　though　frequent　and　bloody；　to　be　a　confused；　mobbing　sort
of　affair；　and　politically　and　technically　unsatisfactory。　　The
knight　was　an　egotist　in　armour。　　Machiavelli　does　small　justice
to　the　English　bowmen。　　It　is　interesting　to　note　that
Switzerland；　that　present　island　of　peace；　was　regarded　by　him　as
the　mother　of　modern　war。　　Swiss　aggression　was　the　curse　of　the
Milanese。　　That　is　a　remark　by　the　way；　our　interest　here　is　to
note　that　modern　war　emerges　upon　history　as　the　sixteenth
century　unfolds；　as　an　affair　in　which　the　essential　factor　is
the　drilled　and　trained　infantryman。　　The　artillery　is　developing
as　a　means　of　breaking　the　infantry；　cavalry　for　charging　them
when　broken；　for　pursuit　and　scouting。　　To　this　day　this　triple
division　of　forces　dominates　soldiers'　minds。　　The　mechanical
development　of　warfare　has　consisted　largely　in　the　development
of　facilities　for　enabling　or　hindering　the　infantry　to　get　to
close　quarters。　　As　that　has　been　made　easy　or　difficult　the
offensive　or　the　defensive　has　predominated。

A　history　of　military　method　for　the　last　few　centuries　would　be
a　record　of　successive　alternate　steps　in　which　offensive　and
defensive　contrivances　pull　ahead；　first　one　and　then　the　other。
Their　relative　fluctuations　are　marked　by　the　varying　length　of
campaigns。　　From　the　very　outset　we　have　the　ditch　and　the　wall；
the　fortified　place　upon　a　pass　or　main　road；　as　a　check　to　the
advance。　　Artillery　improves；　then　fortification　improves。　　The
defensive　holds　its　own　for　a　long　period；　wars　are　mainly　siege
wars；　and　for　a　century　before　the　advent　of　Napoleon　there　are
no　big　successful　sweeping　invasions；　no　marches　upon　the　enemy
capital　and　so　on。　　There　were　wars　of　reduction；　wars　of
annoyance。　　Napoleon　developed　the　offensive　by　seizing　upon　the
enthusiastic　infantry　of　the　republic；　improving　transport　and
mobile　artillery；　using　road…making　as　an　aggressive　method。　　In
spite　of　the　successful　experiment　of　Torres　Vedras　and　the
warning　of　Plevna　the　offensive　remained　dominant　throughout　the
nineteenth　century。

But　three　things　were　working　quietly　towards　the　rehabilitation
of　the　defensive；　firstly　the　increased　range；　accuracy　and
rapidity　of　rifle　fire；　with　which　we　may　include　the　development
of　the　machine　gun；　secondly　the　increasing　use　of　the　spade；　and
thirdly　the　invention　of　barbed　wire。　　By　the　end　of　the　century
these　things　had　come　so　far　into　military　theory　as　to　produce
the　great　essay　of　Bloch；　and　to　surprise　the　British　military
people；　who　are　not　accustomed　to　read　books　or　talk　shop；　in　the
Boer　war。　　In　the　thinly　populated　war　region　of　South　Africa　the
difficulties　of　forcing　entrenched　positions　were　largely　met　by
outflanking；　the　Boers　had　only　a　limited　amount　of　barbed　wire
and　could　be　held　down　in　their　trenches　by　shrapnel；　and　even　at
the　beginning　of　the　present　war　there　can　be　little　doubt　that
we　and　our　Allies　were　still　largely　unprepared　for　the　full
possibilities　of　trench　warfare；　we　attempted　a　war　of
manoeuvres；　war　at　about　the　grade　to　which　war　had　been
brought　in　1898；　and　it　was　the　Germans　who　first　brought　the　war
up　to　date　by　entrenching　upon　the　Aisne。　　We　had；　of　course；　a
few　aeroplanes　at　that　time；　but　they　were　used　chiefly　as　a　sort
of　accessory　cavalry　for　scouting；　our　artillery　was　light　and
our　shell　almost　wholly　shrapnel。

Now　the　grades　of　warfare　that　have　been　developed　since　the
present　war　began；　may　be　regarded　as　a　series　of　elaborations
and　counter　elaborations　of　the　problem　which　begins　as　a　line　of
trenches　behind　wire；　containing　infantry　with　rifles　and　machine
guns。　　Against　this　an　infantry　attack　with　bayonet；　after
shrapnel　fails。　　This　we　will　call　Grade　A。　　To　this　the
offensive　replies　with　improved　artillery；　and　particularly　with
high　explosive　shell　instead　of　shrapnel。　　By　this　the　wire　is
blown　away；　the　trench　wrecked　and　the　defender　held　down　as　the
attack　charges　up。　　This　is　Grade　B。　　But　now　appear　the　dug…out
elaborating　the　trench　and　the　defensive　battery　behind　the
trench。　　The　defenders；　under　the　preliminary　bombardment；　get
into　the　dug…outs　with　their　rifles　and　machine　guns；　and　emerge
as　fresh　as　paint　as　the　attack　comes　up。　　Obviously　there　is
much　scope　for　invention　and　contrivance　in　the　dug…out　as　the
reservoir　of　counter　attacks。　　Its　possibilities　have　been　very
ably　exploited　by　the　Germans。　　Also　the　defensive　batteries
behind；　which　have　of　course　the　exact　range　of　the　captured
trench；　concentrate　on　it　and　destroy　the　attack　at　the　moment　of
victory。　　The　trench　falls　back　to　its　former　holders　under　this
fire　and　a　counter　attack。　　Check　again　for　the　offensive。　　Even
if　it　can　take；　it　cannot　hold　a　position　under　these　conditions。
This　we　will　call　Grade　A2；　a　revised　and　improved　A。　　What　is
the　retort　from　the　opposite　side？　　Obviously　to　enhance　and
extend　the　range　of　the　preliminary　bombardment　behind　the　actual
trench　line；　to　destroy　or　block；　if　it　can；　the　dug…outs　and
destroy　or　silence　the　counter　offensive　artillery。　　If　it　can　do
that；　it　can　go　on；　otherwise　Bloch　wins。

If　fighting　went　on　only　at　ground　level　Bloch　would　win　at　this
stage；　but　here　it　is　that　the　aeroplane　comes　in。　　From　the
ground　it　would　be　practically　impossible　to　locate　the　enemies'
dug…outs；　secondary　defences；　and　batteries。　　But　the　aeroplane
takes　us　immediately　into　a　new　grade　of　warfare；　in　which　the
location　of　the　defender's　secondary　trenches；　guns；　and　even
machine…gun　positions　becomes　a　matter　of　extreme　precision
provided　only　that　the　offensive　has　secured　command　of　the　air
and　can　send　his　aeroplanes　freely　over　the　defender　lines。　　Then
the　preliminary　bombardment　becomes　of　a　much　more　extensive
character；　the　defender's　batteries　are　tackled　by　the
overpowering　fire　of　guns　they　are　unable　to　locate　and　answer；
the　secondary　dug…outs　and　strong　places　are　plastered　down；　a
barrage　fire　shuts　off　support　from　the　doomed　trenches；　the　men
in　these　trenches　are　held　down　by　a　concentrated　artillery　fire
and　the　attack　goes　up　at　last　to　hunt　them　out　of　the　dug…outs
and　collect　the　survivors。　　Until　the　attack　is　comfortably
established　in　the　captured　trench；　the　fire　upon　the　old　counter
attack　position　goes　on。　　This　is　the　grade；　Grade　B2；　to　which
modern　warfare　has　attained　upon　the　Somme　front。　　The　appearance
of　the　Tank　has　only　increased　the　offensive　advantage。　　There　at
present　warfare　rests。

There　is；　I　believe；　only　one　grade　higher　possible。　　The　success
of　B2　depends　upon　the　completeness　of　the　aerial　observation。
The　invention　of　an　anti…aircraft　gun　which　would　be　practically
sure　of　hitting　and　bringing　down　an　aeroplane　at　any　height
whatever　up　to　20；000　feet；　would　restore　the　defensive　and
establish　what　I　should　think　must　be　the　final　grade　of　war；　A3。
But　at　present　nothing　of　the　sort　exists　and　nothing　of　the　sort
is　likely　to　exist　for　a　very　long　time；　at　present　hitting　an
aeroplane　by　any　sort　of　gun　at　all　is　a　rare　and　uncertain
achievement。　　Such　a　gun　is　not　impossible　and　therefore　we　must
suppose　such　a　gun　will　some　day　be　constructed；　but　it　will　be
of　a　novel　type　and　character；　unlike　anything　at　present　in
existence。　　The　grade　of　fighting　that　I　was　privileged　to
witness　on　the　Somme；　the　grade　at　which　a　steady　successful
offensive　is　possible；　is　therefore；　I　conclude；　the　grade　at
which　the　present　war　will　end。


2

But　now　having　thus　spread　out　the　broad　theory　of　the　business；
let　me　go　on　to　tell　some　of　the　actualities　of　the　Somme
offensive。　　They　key　fact　upon　both　British　and　French　fronts　was
the　complete　ascendancy　of　the　Allies　aeroplanes。　　It　is　the
necessary　preliminary　condition　for　the　method　upon　which　the
great　generals　of　the　French　army　rely　in　this　sanitary　task　of
shoving　the　German　Thing　off　the　soil　of　Belgium　and　France　back
into　its　own　land。　　A　man　who　is　frequently　throwing　out
prophecies　is　bound　to　score　a　few　successes；　and　one　that　I　may
legitimately　claim　is　my　early　insistence　upon　that　fact　that　the
equality　of　the　German　aviator　was　likely　to　be　inferior　to　that
of　his　French　or　British　rival。　　The　ordinary　German　has　neither
the　flexible　quality　of　body；　the　quickness　of　nerve；　the
temperament；　nor　the　mental　habits　that　make　a　successful
aviator。　　This　idea　was　first　put　into　my　head　by　considering　the
way　in　which　Germans　walk　and　carry　themselves；　and　by　nothing
the　difference　in　nimbleness　between　the　cyclists　in　the　streets
of　German　and　French　towns。　　It　was　confirmed　by　a　conversation　I
had　with　a　German　aviator　who　was　also　a　dramatist；　and　who　came
to　see　me　upon　some　copyright　matter　in　1912。　　He　broached　the
view　that　aviation　would　destroy　democracy；　because　he　said　only
aristocrats　make　aviators。　　（He　was　a　man　of　good　family。）　With　a
duke　or　so　in　my　mind　I　asked　him　why。　　Because；　he　explained；　a
man　without　aristocratic　quality　in　tradition；　cannot　possibly
endure　the　〃high　loneliness〃　of　the　air。　　That　sounded　rather
like　nonsense　at　the　time；　and　then　I　reflected　that　for　a
Prussian　that　might　be　true。　　There　may　be　something　in　the
German　composition　that　does　demand　association　and　the　support
of　pride　and　training　before　dangers　can　be　faced。　　The　Germans
are　social　and　methodical；　the　French　and　English　are　by
comparison　chaotic　and　instinctive；　perhaps　the　very　readiness
for　a　conscious　orderliness　that　makes　the　German　so　formidable
upon　the　ground；　so　thorough　and　fore…seeking；　makes　him　slow　and
unsure　in　the　air。　　At　any　rate　the　experiences　of　this　war　have
seemed　to　carry　out　this　hypothesis。　　The　German　aviators　will
not　as　a　class　stand　up　to　those　of　the　Allies。　　They　are　not
nimble　in　the　air。　　Such　champions　as　they　have　produced　have
been　men　of　one　trick；　one　of　their　great　men；　Immelmannhe　was
put　down　by　an　English　boy　a　month　or　so　agohad　a　sort　of
hawk's　swoop。　　He　would　go　very　high　and　then　come　down　at　his
utmost　pace　at　his　antagonist；　firing　his　machine　gun　at　him　as
he　came。　　If　he　missed　in　this　hysterical　lunge；　he　went　on
down。。。。　　This　does　not　strike　the　Allied　aviator　as　very
brilliant。　　A　gentleman　of　that　sort　can　sooner　or　later　be
caught　on　the　rise　by　going　for　him　over　the　German
lines。

The　first　phase；　then；　of　the　highest　grade　offensive；　the
ultimate　development　of　war　regardless　of　expense；　is　the
clearance　of　the　air。　　Such　German　machines　as　are　up　are　put
down　by　fighti