war and the future-第29章

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Not　at　all。　　But　because　otherwise　this　strange　sprawling　empire
of　ours　will　drop　back　into　a　secondary　place　in　the　world。
These　two　writers　really　seem　to　think　that　the　slack　workman；
the　slacker　wealthy　man；　the　negligent　official；　the　conservative
schoolmaster；　the　greedy　usurer；　the　comfortable　obstructive；
confronted　with　this　alternative；　terrified　at　this　idea　of
something　or　other　called　the　Empire　being　〃eclipsed；〃　eager　for
the　continuance　of　this　undefined　glory　over　their　fellow…
creatures　called　〃Empire；〃　will　perceive　the　error　of　their　ways
and　become　energetic；　devoted；　capable。　　They　think　an　ideal　of
that　sort　is　going　to　change　the　daily　lives　of　men。。。。　　I
sympathise　with　their　purpose；　and　I　deplore　their　conception　of
motives。　　If　men　will　not　give　themselves　for　righteousness；　they
will　not　give　themselves　for　a　geographical　score。　　If　they　will
not　work　well　for　the　hatred　of　bad　work；　they　will　not　work　well
for　the　hatred　of　Germans。　　This　〃Empire〃　idea　has　been　cadging
about　the　British　empire；　trying　to　collect　enthusiasm　and
devotion；　since　the　days　of　Disraeli。　　It　is；　I　submit；　too　big
for　the　mean…spirited；　and　too　tawdry　and　limited　for　the　fine
and　generous。　　It　leaves　out　the　French　and　the　Italians　and　the
Belgians　and　all　our　blood　brotherhood　of　allies。　　It　has　no
compelling　force　in　it。　　We　British　are　not　naturally
Imperialist；　we　are　something　greateror　something　less。　　For
two　years　and　a　half　now　we　have　been　fighting　against
Imperialism　in　its　most　extravagant　form。　　It　is　a　poor　incentive
to　right　living　to　propose　to　parody　the　devil　we　fight　against。

The　blind　man　must　lunge　again。

For　when　the　right　answer　is　seized　it　answers　not　only　the
question　why　men　should　work　for　their　fellow…men　but　also　why
nation　should　cease　to　arm　and　plan　and　contrive　against　nation。
The　social　problem　is　only　the　international　problem　in　retail；
the　international　problem　is　only　the　social　one　in　gross。

My　bias　rules　me　altogether　here。　　I　see　men　in　social；　in
economic　and　in　international　affairs　alike；　eager　to　put　an　end
to　conflict；　inexpressibly　weary　of　conflict　and　the　waste　and
pain　and　death　it　involves。　　But　to　end　conflict　one　must　abandon
aggressive　or　uncordial　pretensions。　　Labour　is　sick　at　the　idea
of　more　strikes　and　struggles　after　the　war；　industrialism　is
sick　of　competition　and　anxious　for　service；　everybody　is　sick　of
war。　　But　how　can　they　end　any　of　these　clashes　except　by　the
definition　and　recognition　of　a　common　end　which　will　establish　a
standard　for　the　trial　of　every　conceivable　issue；　to　which；　that
is；　every　other　issue　can　be　subordinated；　and　what　common　end
can　there　be　in　all　the　world　except　this　idea　of　the　world
kingdom　of　God？　　What　is　the　good　of　orienting　one's　devotion　to
a　firm；　or　to　class　solidarity；　or　/La　Republique
Francais/；　or　Poland；　or　Albania；　or　such　love　and
loyalty　as　people　profess　for　King　George　or　King　Albert　or　the
Duc　d'Orleansit　puzzles　me　whyor　any　such　intermediate　object
of　self…abandonment？　　We　need　a　standard　so　universal　that　the
platelayer　may　say　to　the　barrister　or　the　duchess；　or　the　Red
Indian　to　the　Limehouse　sailor；　or　the　Anzac　soldier　to　the　Sinn
Feiner　or　the　Chinaman；　〃What　are　we　two　doing　for　it？〃　　And　to
fill　the　place　of　that　〃it；〃　no　other　idea　is　great　enough　or
commanding　enough；　but　only　the　world　kingdom　of　God。

However　long　he　may　have　to　hunt；　the　blind　man　who　is　seeking
service　and　an　end　to　bickerings　will　come　to　that　at　last；
because　of　all　the　thousand　other　things　he　may　clutch　at；
nothing　else　can　satisfy　his　manifest　need。


VI。　THE　ENDING　OF　THE　WAR


1

About　the　end　of　the　war　there　are　two　chief　ways　of　thinking；
there　is　a　simpler　sort　of　mind　which　desires　merely　a　date；　and
a　more　complex　kind　which　wants　particulars。　　To　the　former　class
belong　most　of　the　men　out　at　the　front。　　They　are　so　bored　by
this　war　that　they　would　welcome　any　peace　that　did　not
definitely　admit　defeatand　examine　the　particulars　later。　　The
〃tone〃　of　the　German　army；　to　judge　by　its　captured　letters；　is
even　lower。　　It　would　welcome　peace　in　any　form。　　Never　in　the
whole　history　of　the　world　has　a　war　been　so　universally
unpopular　as　this　war。

The　mind　of　the　soldier　is　obsessed　by　a　vision　of　home…coming
for　good；　so　vivid　and　alluring　that　it　blots　out　nearly　every
other　consideration。　　The　visions　of　people　at　home　are　of　plenty
instead　of　privation；　lights　up；　and　the　cessation　of　a　hundred
tiresome　restrictions。　　And　it　is　natural　therefore　that　a　writer
rather　given　to　guesses　and　forecasts　should　be　asked　very
frequently　to　guess　how　long　the　war　has　still　to　run。

All　such　forecasting　is　the　very　wildest　of　shooting。　　There　are
the　chances　of　war　to　put　one　out；　and　of　a　war　that　changes　far
faster　than　the　military　intelligence。　　I　have　made　various
forecasts。　　At　the　outset　I　thought　that　military　Germany　would
fight　at　about　the　1899　level；　would　be　lavish　with　cavalry　and
great　attacks；　that　it　would　be　reluctant　to　entrench；　and　that
the　French　and　British　had　learnt　the　lesson　of　the　Boer　war
better　than　the　Germans。　　I　trusted　to　the　melodramatic　instinct
of　the　Kaiser。　　I　trusted　to　the　quickened　intelligence　of　the
British　military　caste。　　The　first　rush　seemed　to　bear　me　out；
and　I　opened　my　paper　day　by　day　expecting　to　read　of　the　British
and　French　entrenched　and　the　Germans　beating　themselves　to　death
against　wire　and　trenches。　　In　those　days　I　wrote　of　the　French
being　over　the　Rhine　before　1915。　　But　it　was　the　Germans　who
entrenched　first。

Since　then　I　have　made　some　other　attempts。　　I　did　not　prophesy
at　all　in　1915；　so　far　as　I　can　remember。　　If　I　had　I　should
certainly　have　backed　the　Gallipoli　attempt　to　win。　　It　was　the
right　thing　to　do；　and　it　was　done　abominably。　　It　should　have
given　us　Constantinople　and　brought　Bulgaria　to　our　side；　it　gave
us　a　tragic　history　of　administrative　indolence　and　negligence；
and　wasted　bravery　and　devotion。　　I　was　very　hopeful　of　the
western　offensive　in　1915；　and　in　1916　I　counted　still　on　our
continuing　push。　　I　believe　we　were　very　near　something　like
decision　this　last　September；　but　some　archaic　dream　of　doing　it
with　cavalry　dashed　these　hopes。　　The　〃Tanks〃　arrived　to　late　to
do　their　proper　work；　and　their　method　of　use　is　being　worked　out
very　slowly。。。。　　I　still　believe　in　the　western　push；　if　only　we
push　it　for　all　we　are　worth。　　If　only　we　push　it　with　our
brains；　with　our　available　and　still　unorganised　brains；　if　only
we　realise　that　the　art　of　modern　war　is　to　invent　and　invent　and
invent。　　Hitherto　I　have　always　hoped　and　looked　for　decision；　a
complete　victory　that　would　enable　the　Allies　to　dictate　peace。
But　such　an　expectation　is　largely　conditioned　by　these　delicate
questions　of　adaptability　that　my　tour　of　the　front　has　made　very
urgent　in　my　mind。　　A　spiteful　German　American　writer　has　said
that　the　British　would　rather　kill　twenty　thousand　of　their　men
than　break　one　general。　　Even　a　grain　of　truth　in　such　a　remark
is　a　very　valid　reasoning　for　lengthening　one's　estimate　of　the
duration　of　the　war。

There　can　be　no　doubt　that　the　Western　allies　are　playing　a
winning　game　upon　the　western　front；　and　that　this　is　the　front
of　decision　now。　　It　is　not　in　doubt　that　they　are　beating　the
Germans　and　shoving　them　back。　　The　uncertain　factor　is　the　rate
at　which　they　are　shoving　them　back。　　If　they　can　presently　get
to　so　rapid　an　advance　as　to　bring　the　average　rate　since　July
1st　up　to　two　or　three　miles　a　day；　then　we　shall　still　see　the
Allies　dictating　terms。　　But　if　the　shove　drags　on　at　its　present
pace　of　less　than　a　mile　and　four　thousand　prisoners　a　week　over
the　limited　Somme　front　only；　if　nothing　is　attempted　elsewhere
to　increase　the　area　of　pressure；　＇*This　was　written　originally
before　the　French　offensive　at　Verdun。＇　then　the　intolerable
stress　and　boredom　of　the　war　will　bring　about　a　peace　long
before　the　Germans　are　decisively　crushed。　　But　the　war；
universally　detested；　may　go　on　into　1918　or　1919。　　Food　riots；
famine；　and　general　disorganisation　will　come　before　1920；　if　it
does。　　The　Allies　have　a　winning　game　before　them；　but　they　seem
unable　to　discover　and　promote　the　military　genius　needed　to
harvest　an　unquestionable　victory。　　In　the　long　run　this　may　not
be　an　unmixed　evil。　　Victory；　complete　and　dramatic；　may　be
bought　too　dearly。　　We　need　not　triumphs　out　of　this　war　but　the
peace　of　the　world。

This　war　is　altogether　unlike　any　previous　war；　and　its　ending；
like　its　development；　will　follow　a　course　of　its　own。　　For　a
time　people's　minds　ran　into　the　old　grooves；　the　Germans　were
going　/nach　Paris/　and　/nach　London/；　Lord　Curzon
filled　our　minds　with　a　pleasant　image　of　the　Bombay　Lancers
riding　down　/Unter　den　Linden。/　　But　the　Versailles
precedent　of　a　council　of　victors　dictating　terms　to　the
vanquished　is　not　now　so　evidently　in　men's　minds。　　The　utmost
the　Allies　talk　upon　now　is　to　say；　〃We　must　end　the　war　on
German　soil。〃　　The　Germans　talk　frankly　of　〃holding　out。〃　　I　have
guessed　that　the　western　offensive　will　be　chiefly　on　German　soil
by　next　June；　it　is　a　mere　guess；　and　I　admit　it　is　quite
conceivable　that　the　〃push〃　may　still　be　grinding　out　its　daily
tale　of　wounded　and　prisoners　in　1918　far　from　that　goal。

None　of　the　combatants　expected　such　a　war　as　this；　and　the
consequence　is　that　the　world　at　large　has　no　idea　how　to　get　out
of　it。　　The　war　may　stay　with　us　like　a　schoolboy　caller；　because
it　does　not　know　how　to　go。　　The　Italians　said　as　much　to　me。
〃Suppose　we　get　to　Innsbruck　and　Laibach　and　Trieste；〃　they　said；
〃it　isn't　an　end！〃　　Lord　Northcliffe；　I　am　told；　came　away　from
Italy　with　the　conviction　that　the　war　would　last　six　years。

There　is　the　clearest　evidence　that　nearly　everyone　is　anxious　to
get　out　of　the　war　now。　　Nobody　at　all；　except　perhaps　a　few
people　who　may　be　called　to　account；　and　a　handful　of　greedy
profit…seekers；　wants　to　keep　it　going。　　Quietly　perhaps　and
unobtrusively；　everyone　I　know　is　now　trying　to　find　the　way　out
of　the　war；　and　I　am　convinced　that　the　same　is　the　case　in
Germany。　　That　is　what　makes　the　Peace…at…any…price　campaign　so
exasperating。　　It　is　like　being　chased　by　clamorous　geese　across
a　common　in　the　direction　in　which　you　want　to　go。　　But　how　are
we　to　get　outwith　any　creditin　such　a　way　as　to　prevent　a
subsequent　collapse　into　another　war　as　frightful？

At　present　three　programmes　are　before　the　world　of　the　way　in
which　the　war　can　be　ended。　　The　first　of　these　assumes　a
complete　predominance　of　our　Allies。　　It　has　been　stated　in
general　terms　by　Mr。　Asquith。　　Evacuation；　reparation；　due
punishment　of　those　responsible　for　the　war；　and　guarantees　that
nothing　of　the　sort　shall　happen　again。　　There　is　as　yet　no
mention　of　the　nature　of　these　guarantees。　　Just　exactly　what　is
to　happen　to　Poland；　Austria；　and　the　Turkish　Empire　does　not
appear　in　this　prospectus。　　The　German　Chancellor　is　equally
elusive。　　The　Kaiser　has　stampeded　the　peace…at…any…price　people
of　Great　Britain　by　proclaiming　that　Germany　wants　peace。　　We
knew　that。　　But　what　sor