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第42章

the works of edgar allan poe-1-第42章

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and to God。 

〃Let us sum up now the meagre yet certain fruits of our long 
analysis。 We have attained the idea either of a fatal accident under 
the roof of Madame Deluc; or of a murder perpetrated; in the thicket 
at the Barri鑢e du Roule; by a lover; or at least by an intimate and 
secret associate of the deceased。 This associate is of swarthy 
complexion。 This complexion; the 'hitch' in the bandage; and the 
'sailor's knot;' with which the bonnet…ribbon is tied; point to a 
seaman。 His companionship with the deceased; a gay; but not an abject 
young girl; designates him as above the grade of the common sailor。 
Here the well written and urgent communications to the journals are 
much in the way of corroboration。 The circumstance of the first 
elopement; as mentioned by Le Mercurie; tends to blend the idea of 
this seaman with that of the 'naval officer' who is first known to 
have led the unfortunate into crime。 

〃And here; most fitly; comes the consideration of the continued 
absence of him of the dark complexion。 Let me pause to observe that 
the complexion of this man is dark and swarthy; it was no common 
swarthiness which constituted the sole point of remembrance; both as 
regards Valence and Madame Deluc。 But why is this man absent? Was he 
murdered by the gang? If so; why are there only traces of the 
assassinated girl? The scene of the two outrages will naturally be 
supposed identical。 And where is his corpse? The assassins would most 
probably have disposed of both in the same way。 But it may be said 
that this man lives; and is deterred from making himself known; 
through dread of being charged with the murder。 This consideration 
might be supposed to operate upon him now … at this late period … 
since it has been given in evidence that he was seen with Marie … but 
it would have had no force at the period of the deed。 The first 
impulse of an innocent man would have been to announce the outrage; 
and to aid in identifying the ruffians。 This policy would have 
suggested。 He had been seen with the girl。 He had crossed the river 
with her in an open ferry…boat。 The denouncing of the assassins would 
have appeared; even to an idiot; the surest and sole means of 
relieving himself from suspicion。 We cannot suppose him; on the night 
of the fatal Sunday; both innocent himself and incognizant of an 
outrage committed。 Yet only under such circumstances is it possible 
to imagine that he would have failed; if alive; in the denouncement 
of the assassins。 

〃And what means are ours; of attaining the truth? We shall find these 
means multiplying and gathering distinctness as we proceed。 Let us 
sift to the bottom this affair of the first elopement。 Let us know 
the full history of 'the officer;' with his present circumstances; 
and his whereabouts at the precise period of the murder。 Let us 
carefully compare with each other the various communications sent to 
the evening paper; in which the object was to inculpate a gang。 This 
done; let us compare these communications; both as regards style and 
MS。; with those sent to the morning paper; at a previous period; and 
insisting so vehemently upon the guilt of Mennais。 And; all this 
done; let us again compare these various communications with the 
known MSS。 of the officer。 Let us endeavor to ascertain; by repeated 
questionings of Madame Deluc and her boys; as well as of the omnibus 
driver; Valence; something more of the personal appearance and 
bearing of the 'man of dark complexion。' Queries; skilfully directed; 
will not fail to elicit; from some of these parties; information on 
this particular point (or upon others) … information which the 
parties themselves may not even be aware of possessing。 And let us 
now trace the boatpicked up by the bargeman on the morning of Monday 
the twenty…third of June; and which was removed from the 
barge…office; without the cognizance of the officer in attendance; 
and without the rudder; at some period prior to the discovery of the 
corpse。 With a proper caution and perseverance we shall infallibly 
trace this boat; for not only can the bargeman who picked it up 
identify it; but the rudder is at hand。 The rudder of a sail…boat 
would not have been abandoned; without inquiry; by one altogether at 
ease in heart。 And here let me pause to insinuate a question。 There 
was no advertisement of the picking up of this boat。 It was silently 
taken to the barge…office; and as silently removed。 But its owner or 
employer … how happened he; at so early a period as Tuesday morning; 
to be informed; without the agency of advertisement; of the locality 
of the boat taken up on Monday; unless we imagine some connexion with 
the navy … some personal permanent connexion leading to cognizance of 
its minute in interests … its petty local news? 

〃In speaking of the lonely assassin dragging his burden to the shore; 
I have already suggested the probability of his availing himself of a 
boat。 Now we are to understand that Marie Rog阾 was precipitated from 
a boat。 This would naturally have been the case。 The corpse could not 
have been trusted to the shallow waters of the shore。 The peculiar 
marks on the back and shoulders of the victim tell of the bottom ribs 
of a boat。 That the body was found without weight is also 
corroborative of the idea。 If thrown from the shore a weight would 
have been attached。 We can only account for its absence by supposing 
the murderer to have neglected the precaution of supplying himself 
with it before pushing off。 In the act of consigning the corpse to 
the water; he would unquestionably have noticed his oversight; but 
then no remedy would have been at hand。 Any risk would have been 
preferred to a return to that accursed shore。 Having rid himself of 
his ghastly charge; the murderer would have hastened to the city。 
There; at some obscure wharf; he would have leaped on land。 But the 
boat … would he have secured it? He would have been in too great 
haste for such things as securing a boat。 Moreover; in fastening it 
to the wharf; he would have felt as if securing evidence against 
himself。 His natural thought would have been to cast from him; as far 
as possible; all that had held connection with his crime。 He would 
not only have fled from the wharf; but he would not have permitted 
the boat to remain。 Assuredly he would have cast it adrift。 Let us 
pursue our fancies。 … In the morning; the wretch is stricken with 
unutterable horror at finding that the boat has been picked up and 
detained at a locality which he is in the daily habit of frequenting 
… at a locality; perhaps; which his duty compels him to frequent。 The 
next night; without daring to ask for the rudder; he removes it。 Now 
where is that rudderless boat? Let it be one of our first purposes to 
discover。 With the first glimpse we obtain of it; the dawn of our 
success shall begin。 This boat shall guide us; with a rapidity which 
will surprise even ourselves; to him who employed it in the midnight 
of the fatal Sabbath。 Corroboration will rise upon corroboration; and 
the murderer will be traced。〃 

'For reasons which we shall not specify; but which to many readers 
will appear obvious; we have taken the liberty of here omitting; from 
the MSS。 placed in our hands; such portion as details the following 
up of the apparently slight clew obtained by Dupin。 We feel it 
advisable only to state; in brief; that the result desired was 
brought to pass; and that the Prefect fulfilled punctually; although 
with reluctance; the terms of his compact with the Chevalier。 Mr。 
Poe's article concludes with the following words。 … Eds。 {*23}' 

It will be understood that I speak of coincidences and no more。 What 
I have said above upon this topic must suffice。 In my own heart there 
dwells no faith in pr鎡er…nature。 That Nature and its God are two; no 
man who thinks; will deny。 That the latter; creating the former; can; 
at will; control or modify it; is also unquestionable。 I say 〃at 
will;〃 for the question is of will; and not; as the insanity of logic 
has assumed; of power。 It is not that the Deity cannot modify his 
laws; but that we insult him in imagining a possible necessity for 
modification。 In their origin these laws were fashioned to embrace 
all contingencies which could lie in the Future。 With God all is Now。 

I repeat; then; that I speak of these things only as of coincidences。 
And farther: in what I relate it will be seen that between the fate 
of the unhappy Mary Cecilia Rogers; so far as that fate is known; and 
the fate of one Marie Rog阾 up to a certain epoch in her history; 
there has existed a parallel in the contemplation of whose wonderful 
exactitude the reason becomes embarrassed。 I say all this will be 
seen。 But let it not for a moment be supposed that; in proceeding 
with the sad narrative of Marie from the epoch just mentioned; and in 
tracing to its d閚ouement the mystery which enshrouded her; it is my 
covert design to hint at an extension of the parallel; or even to 
suggest that the measures adopted in Paris for the discovery of the 
assassin of a grisette; or measures founded in any similar 
ratiocination; would produce any similar result。 

For; in respect to the latter branch of the supposition; it should be 
considered that the most trifling variation in the facts of the two 
cases might give rise to the most important miscalculations; by 
diverting thoroughly the two courses of events; very much as; in 
arithmetic; an error which; in its own individuality; may be 
inappreciable; produces; at length; by dint of multiplication at all 
points of the process; a result enormously at variance with truth。 
And; in regard to the former branch; we must not fail to hold in view 
that the very Calculus of Probabilities to which I have referred; 
forbids all idea of the extension of the parallel: … forbids it with 
a positiveness strong and decided just in proportion as this parallel 
has already been long…drawn and exact。 This is one of those anomalous 
propositions which; seemingly appealing to thought altogether apart 
from the mathematical; is yet one which only the mathematician can 
fully entertain。 Nothing; for example; is more difficult than to 
convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been 
thrown twice in succession by a player at dice; is sufficient cause 
for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the 
third attempt。 A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the 
intellect at once。 It does not appear that the two throws which have 
been completed; and which lie now absolutely in the Past; can have 
influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future。 The chance 
for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary 
time … that is to say; subject only to the influence of the various 
other throws which may be made by the dice。 And this is a reflection 
which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it 
are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything 
like respectful attention。 The error here involved … a gross error 
redolent of mischief … I cannot pretend to expose

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