the high price of bullion-第12章

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a　county　finds　it　necessary　to　engage　in。　In　the　ewly　and　rude



transactions　of　commerce　between　nations；　as　in　the　early　and



rude　transactions　between　individuals；　there　is　little　economy　in



the　use　of　money　and　bullion；　it　is　only　in　consequence　of



civilization　and　refinement　that　paper　is　made　to　perform　the



same　office　between　the　commonwealth　of　nations；　as　it　so



advantageously　performs　between　individuals　of　the　same　country。



The　Reviewers　do　not　appear　to　me　to　be　sufficiently　aware　of　the



extent　to　which　the　principle　of　economy　in　the　use　of　the



precious　metals　is　extended　between　nations；　indeed　they　do　not



seem　to　acknowledge　its　force　even　when　confined　to　a　single



nation；　as　from　a　passage　in　page　346；　their　readers　would　be



induced　to　suppose　their　opinion　to　be；　that　there　are　frequent



transfers　of　currency　between　the　distant　provinces　of　the　same



country；　for　they　tell　us　that　〃there　have　been　and　ever　will　be



a　quantity　of　the　precious　metals　in　use　destined　to　perform　the



same　part　with　regard　to　the　different　nations　connected　with



each　other　by　commerce；　which　the　currency　of　a　particular



country　performs　with　regard　to　its　distant　provinces。〃　Now　what



part　does　the　currency　of　a　country　perform　with　regard　to　the



distant　provinces？



　　　　I　am　well　persuaded　that　in　all　the　multiplicity　of



commercial　transactions　which　take　place　between　the　distant



provinces　of　this　kingdom；　the　currency　performs　a　very　inferior



part；　imports　being　almost　always　balanced　by　exports*；　and　the



proof　is；　that　the　local　currency　of　the　provinces　（and　they　have



no　other）　is　seldom　circulated　at　any　considerable　distance　from



the　place　where　it　is　issued。



　　　　It　appears　to　me　that　the　Reviewers　were　induced　to　admit　the



erroneous　doctrine　of　the　merchants；　that　money　might　be　exported



in　exchange　for　commodities；　although　money　were　no　cheaper　in



the　exporting　country；　because　they　could　in　no　other　way　account



for　the　rise　of　the　exchange　having；　on　some　occasions；



accompanied　the　increased　amount　of　Bank　notes；　as　stated　by　Mr



Pearse；　the　late　deputy…governor　and　now　governor　of　the　Bank；　in



a　paper　delivered　by　him　to　the　Bullion　Committee。　They　say；



〃according　to　this　view　of　the　subject；　it　certainly　is　not　easy



to　explain　an　improving　exchange　under　an　obviously　increasing



issue　of　notes：　an　event　that　not　unfrequently　happens；　and　was



much　insisted　upon　by　the　deputy…governor　of　the　Bank；　as　a　proof



that　our　foreign　exchanges　had　no　connexion　with　the　state　of　our



currency。〃



　　　　These　are　circumstances；　however；　which　are　not　absolutely



irreconcileable。　Mr　Pearse；　as　well　as　the　Edinburgh　Reviewer；



appears　to　have　wholly　mistaken　the　principle　advanced　by　those



who　are　desirous　of　the　repeal　of　the　restriction　bill。　They　do



not　contend；　as　they　are　understood　to　do；　that　the　increase　of



bank　notes　will　permanently　lower　the　exchange；　but　that　such　an



effect　will　proceed　from　a　redundant　currency。　It　remains；



therefore；　to　be　considered　whether　an　increase　of　bank　notes　is



necessarily；　at　all　times；　accompanied　with　a　permanently



increased　currency；　as　if　I　can　make　it　appear　that　it　is　not；



there　will　be　no　difficulty　in　accounting　for　a　rise　in　the



exchange；　with　an　increased　amount　of　bank…notes。



　　　　It　will　be　readily　admitted；　that　whilst　there　is　any　great



portion　of　coin　in　circulation；　every　increase　of　bank…notes；



though　it　will　for　a　short　time　lower　the　value　of　the　whole



currency；　paper　as　well　as　gold；　yet　that　such　depression　will



not　be　permanent；　because　the　redundant　and　cheap　currency　will



lower　the　exchange　and　will　occasion　the　exportation　of　a　portion



of　the　coin；　which　will　cease　as　soon　as　the　remainder　of　the



currency　shall　have　regained　its　value；　and　restored　the　exchange



to　par。　The　increase　of　small　notes；　then；　will　ultimately　be　a



substitution　of　one　currency　for　another；　of　a　paper　for　a



metallic　currency；　and　will　not　operate　in　the　same　way　as　an



actual　and　permanent　increase　of　circulation*。　We　are　not；



however；　without　a　criterion　by　which　we　may　determine　the



relative　amount　of　currency　at　different　periods；　as



distinguished　from　bank…notes；　on　which　though　we　cannot



infallibly　rely；　it　will　probably　be　a　sufficiently　accurate　test



to　determine　the　question　which　we　are　now　discussing。　This



criterion　is　the　amount　of　notes　of　5l。　and　upwards　in



circulation；　which　we　may　reasonably　calculate　always　bear　some



tolerably　regular　proportion　to　the　whole　circulation。　Thus；　if



since　1797　the　bank…notes　of　this　description　have　increased　from



twelve　to　sixteen　millions；　we　may　infer　that　the　whole



circulation　has　increased　one…third；　if　the　districts　in　which



bank…notes　circulate　have　neither　been　enlarged　nor　contracted。



The　notes　under　5l。　will　be　issued　in　proportion　as　the　metallic



currency　is　withdrawn　from　circulation；　and　will　be　further



augmented；　if　there　be　also　an　augmentation　of　notes　of　a　higher



denomination。



　　　　If　I　am　correct　in　this　view　of　the　subject；　that　the



increase　in　the　amount　of　our　currency　is　to　be　inferred　from　the



increased　amount　of　bank…notes　of　5　l。　and　upwards；　and　can　by　no



means　be　proved　by　an　increase　of　1　l。　and　2　l。　notes　which　have



been　substituted　in　the　place　of　the　exported　or　hoarded　guineas；



I　must　wholly　reject　the　calculations　of　Mr　Pearse；　because　they



are　made　on　the　supposition　that　every　increase　of　this



description　of　notes　is　an　increase　of　currency　to　that　amount。



When　it　is　considered　that　in　1797　there　were　no　notes　of　1　l。



and　2　l。　in　circulation；　but　that　their　place　was　wholly　filled



with　guineas；　and　that　since　that　period　there　have　been　no　less



than　seven　millions　issued；　partly　to　supply　the　place　of　our



exported　and　hoarded　guineas；　and　partly　to　keep　up　the



proportion　between　the　circulation　for　the　larger　and　for　the



smaller　payments；　we　shall　observe　to　what　errors　such　reasoning



may　lead。　I　can　consider　the　paper　in　question　of　no　authority



whatever　as　opposed　to　the　opinion　which　I　have　ventured　to　give；



namely；　that　an　unfavourable　balance　of　trade；　and　a　consequently



low　exchange；　may　in　all　cases　be　traced　to　a　relatively



redundant　and　cheap　currency。　*　But　if　the　reasoning　of　Mr　Pearse



were　not　incorrect　as　his　facts　are；　he　is　no　way　warranted　in



the　conclusions　which　he　has　drawn　from　them。



　　　　Mr　Pearse　states　the　increase　of　bank…notes　from　January；



1808；　to　Christmas；　1809；　to　have　been　from　17　1/2　to　18



millions；　or　500；000　l。；　the　exchange　with　Hamburgh　during　the



same　period　having　fallen　from　34s。　9g。　to　28s。　6g。　an　increase



in　the　amount　of　notes　of　less　than　three　per　cent；　and　a　fall　in



the　exchange　of　more　than　eighteen　per　cent。　But　from　whence　did



Mr　Pearse　obtain　this　information；　of　18　millions　of　bank…notes



only　being　in　circulation　at　Christmas　in　1809？　After　looking　at



every　return；　with　which　I　have　been　able　to　meet；　of　the　amount



of　bank…notes　in　circulation　at　the　end　of　1809；　I　cannot　but



conclude　that　Mr　Pearse's　statement　is　incorrect。　Mr　Mushet　in



his　tables　gives　four　returns　of　bank…notes　in　the　year。　In　the



last；　for　the　year　1809；　he　has　stated　the　amount　of　bank…notes



in　circulation







　at　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　19；742；998



　In　the　Appendix　to　the　Bullion　Report；　and　in　returns　lately



made　to　the　House　of　Commons；　the　amount　of　bank…notes　in



circulation　appears　to　have　been　on　December　12；　1809　　　　　　　　　



19；727；520







　On　the　1st　January；　1810　　　　　　　　　　　2；669；320



　On　the　7th　January；　1810　　　　　　　　　　19；528；030











　　　　For　many　months　previously　to　December　it　was　not　lower。　When



I　first　discovered　this　inaccuracy　I　thought　Mr　Pearse　might　have



omitted　the　bank　post　bills　in　both　estimates；　although　they　did



not　in　December；　1809；　exceed　880；880　l。；　but　on　looking　at　the



return　of　bank…notes　in　circulation；　including　bank　post　bills；



in　January；　1808；　I　find　Mr　Pearse　has　stated　it　larger　than　I



can　any　where　find　it：　indeed　his　estimate　exceeds　the　return



made　by　the　Bank　for　the　1st　of　January；　1808；　by　nearly　900；000



l。；　so　that　from　the　1st　of　January；　1808；　to　the　12th　of



December；　1809；　the　increase　was　from　16；619；240　to　19；727；520；　a



difference　of　more　than　three　millions；　instead　of　500；000；　as



stated　by　Mr　Pearse；　and　of　two　millions　if　Mr　Pearse's　statement



for　any　time　in　January；　1808；　be　correct。



　　　　Mr　Pearse's　statement　too；　that　from　January　1803；　to　the　end



of　1807；　the　amount　of　bank…notes　had　increased　from　16　and　a



half　to　eighteen　millions；　an　increase　of　a　million　and　a　half



appears　to　me　to　exceed　the　fact　by　half　a　million。　The　increase



of　notes　of　5　l。　and　upwards；　including　bank　post　bills；　did　not；



during　that　period；　exceed　150；000　l。　It　is　material　that　these



errors　should　be　pointed　out；　that　those　who　may；　in　spite　of



what　I　have　urged；　agree　in　principle　with　Mr　Pearse；　may　see



that　the　facts　of　the　case　do　not　warrant　the　conclusions　which



that　gentleman　has　drawn　from　them；　and；　indeed；　that　all



calculations　founded　on　the　particular　amount　of　banknotes　for　a



day；　or　for　a　week；　when　the　general　average　has　been　for　some



time　before；　or　some　time　after；　greater　or　less；　will　be　of



little　avail　in　overturning　a　theory　which　has　every　other　proof



of　its　tuth。　Such　I　consider　the　theory　which　asserts　that　the



unlimited　multiplication　of　a　currency　which　is　referrible　to　no



fixed　standard　may　and　must　produce　a　permanent　depression　of　the



exchange；　estimated　with　a　country　whose　currency　is　founded　on



such　standard。



　　　　Having　considered　the　weight　which　ought　to　be　attached　to　Mr



Pearse's　paper；　I　beg　the　reader's　attention　to　the　table　which　I



have　drawn　out　from　the　statements　in　tbe　Bullion　Report；　and



from　the　papers　which　have　since　been　presented　to　the　House　of



Commons。　I　request　him　to　compare　the　amount　of　the　circulation



of　the　larger　notes　with　the　variations　in　the　exchange；　and　I



trust　he　will　find　no　difficulty　in　reconciling　the　principle



maintained　by　me　with　the　actual　facts　of　the　case；　particularly



if　he　considers　that　the　operations　of　an　increased　currency　are



not　instantaneous；　but　require　some　interval　of　time　to　produce



their　full　effect；　…　that　a　rise　or　fal1　in　the　price　of　silv