the unknown guest-第11章

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f　Dr。　Osty's　fine　work　inspire　one　with　the　most　entire　confidence。　Unfortunately；　he　contents　himself　with　quoting　too　summarily　a　few　facts　and　does　not；　as　he　ought；　give　us　in　extenso　the　details　of　his　experiments；　controls　and　tests。　I　am　well　aware　that　this　would　be　a　thankless　and　wearisome　task；　necessitating　a　large　volume　which　a　mass　of　puerile　incidents　and　inevitable　repetitions　would　make　almost　readable。　Moreover；　it　could　scarcely　help　taking　the　form　of　an　intimate　and　indiscreet　autobiography；　and　it　is　not　easy　to　bring　one's　self　to　make　this　sort　of　public　confession。　But　it　has　to　be　done。　In　a　science　which　is　only　in　its　early　stages；　it　is　not　enough　to　show　the　object　attained　and　to　state　one's　conviction；　it　is　necessary　above　all　to　describe　every　path　that　has　been　taken　and；　by　an　incessant　and　infinite　accumulation　of　investigated　and　attested　facts；　to　enable　every　one　to　draw　his　own　conclusions。　This　has　been　the　cumbrous　and　laborious　method　of　the　Proceedings　for　over　thirty　years；　and　it　is　the　only　right　one。　Discussion　is　possible　and　fruitful　only　at　that　price。　In　all　these　extraconscious　matters；　we　have　not　yet　reached　the　stage　of　definite　deduction；　we　are　still　bringing　up　materials　to　the　scene　of　operations。

Once　more；　I　know　that；　in　these　cases；　as　I　have　seen　for　myself；　the　really　convincing　facts　are　necessarily　very　rare；　indeed；　nowhere　else　do　we　meet　with　the　same　difficulty。　If　the　medium　tells　you；　for　instance；　as　Mme。　M。　seems　easily　to　do；　how　you　will　employ　your　day　from　the　morning　onwards；　if　she　sees　you　in　a　certain　house　in　a　certain　street　meeting　this　or　that　person；　it　is　impossible　to　say　that；　on　the　one　hand；　she　is　not　already　reading　your　as　yet　unconscious　plans　or　intentions；　or　that；　on　the　other　hand；　by　doing　what　she　has　foreseen；　you　are　not　obeying　a　suggestion　against　which　you　could　not　fight　except　by　violently　doing　the　opposite　to　what　it　demands　of　you；　which　again　would　be　a　case　of　inverted　suggestion。　None　therefore　would　have　any　value　save　predictions　of　unlikely　happenings；　clearly　defined　and　outside　the　sphere　of　the　person　interested。　As　Dr。　Osty　says：

〃The　ideal　prognostication　would　obviously　be　that　of　an　event　so　rare；　so　sudden　and　unexpected；　implying　such　a　change　in　one's　mode　of　life　that　the　theory　of　coincidence　could　not　decently　be　put　forward。　But；　as　everybody　is　not；　in　the　peaceful　course　of　his　threatened　by　such　an　absolutely　convincing　event；　the　clairvoyant　cannot　always　reveal　to　the　person　experimentingand　reveal　it　for　a　more　or　less　approximate　dateone　of　those　incidents　whose　accomplishment　would　carry　irresistible　conviction。〃

In　any　case；　the　question　of　psychometric　prognostications　calls　for　further　enquiry；　although　it　is　easy　even　at　the　present　day　to　forsee　the　results。

10

Let　us　now　return　to　our　spontaneous　premonitions；　in　which　the　future　comes　to　seek　us　of　its　own　accord　and；　so　to　speak；　to　challenge　us　at　home。　I　know　from　personal　experience　that；　when　we　embark　upon　these　disconcerting　matters；　the　first　impression　is　scarcely　favourable。　We　are　very　much　inclined　to　laugh；　to　treat　as　wearisome　tales；　as　hysterical　hallucinations；　as　ingenious　or　interested　fictions　most　or　those　incidents　which　give　too　violent　a　shock　to　the　narrow　and　limited　idea　which　we　have　of　our　human　life。　To　smile；　to　reject　everything　beforehand　and　to　pass　by　with　averted　head；　as　was　done；　I　remember；　in　the　time　of　Galvani；　and　in　the　early　days　of　hypnotism；　is　much　more　easy　and　seems　more　respectable　and　prudent　than　to　stop；　admit　and　examine。　Nevertheless　we　must　not　forget　that　it　is　to　some　who　did　not　smile　so　lightly　that　we　owe　the　best　part　of　the　marvels　from　whose　heights　we　are　preparing　to　smile　in　our　turn。　For　the　rest；　I　grant　that；　thus　presented；　hastily　and　summarily；　without　the　details　that　throw　light　upon　them　and　the　proofs　that　support　them；　the　incidents　in　question　do　not　show　to　advantage　and；　inasmuch　as　they　are　isolated　and　sparingly　chosen；　lose　all　the　weight　and　authority　derived　from　the　compact　and　imposing　mass　whence　they　are　arbitrarily　detached。　As　I　said　above；　nearly　a　thousand　cases　have　been　collected；　representing　probably　not　the　tenth　part　of　those　which　a　more　active　and　general　search　might　bring　together。　The　number　is　evidently　of　importance　and　denotes　the　enormous　pressure　of　the　mystery；　but；　if　there　were　only　half　a　dozen　genuine　casesand　Dr。　Maxwell's；　Professor　Flournoy's；　Mrs。　Verrall's；　the　Marmontel；　Jones　and　Hamilton　cases　and　some　others　are　undoubtedly　genuinethey　would　be　enough　to　show　that；　under　the　erroneous　idea　which　we　form　of　the　past　and　the　present；　a　new　verity　is　living　and　moving；　eager　to　come　to　light。

The　efforts　of　that　verity；　I　need　hardly　say；　display　a　very　different　sort　of　force　after　we　have　actually　and　attentively　read　those　hundreds　of　extraordinary　stories　which；　without　appearing　to　do　so；　strike　to　the　very　roots　of　history。　We　soon　lose　all　inclination　to　doubt。　We　penetrate　into　another　world　and　come　to　a　stop　all　out　of　countenance。　We　no　longer　know　where　we　stand；　before　and　after　overlap　and　mingle。　We　no　longer　distinguish　the　insidious　and　factitious　but　indispensable　line　which　separates　the　years　that　have　gone　by　from　the　years　that　are　to　come。　We　clutch　at　the　hours　and　days　of　the　past　and　present　to　reassure　ourselves；　to　fasten　on　to　some　certainty；　to　convince　ourselves　that　we　are　still　in　our　right　place　in　this　life　where　that　which　is　not　yet　seems　as　substantial；　as　real；　as　positive；　as　powerful　as　that　which　is　no　more。　We　discover　with　uneasiness　that　time；　on　which　we　based　our　whole　existence；　itself　no　longer　exists。　It　is　no　longer　the　swiftest　of　our　gods；　known　to　us　only　by　its　flight　across　all　things：　it　alters　its　position　no　more　than　space；　of　which　it　is　doubtless　but　the　incomprehensible　reflex。　It　reigns　in　the　centre　of　every　event；　and　every　event　is　fixed　in　its　centre；　and　all　that　comes　and　all　that　goes　passes　from　end　to　end　of　our　little　life　without　moving　by　a　hair's　breadth　around　its　motionless　pivot。　It　is　entitled　to　but　one　of　the　thousand　names　which　we　have　been　wont　to　lavish　upon　its　power；　a　power　that　seemed　to　us　manifold　and　innumerable：　yesterday；　recently；　formerly；　erewhile；　after；　before；　tomorrow；　soon；　never；　later　fall　like　childish　masks；　whereas　to…day　and　always　completely　cover　with　their　united　shadows　the　idea　which　we　form　in　the　end　of　a　duration　which　has　no　subdivisions；　no　breaks　and　no　stages；　which　is　pulseless；　motionless　and　boundless。

11

Many　are　the　theories　which　men　have　imagined　in　their　attempts　to　explain　the　working　of　the　strange　phenomenon；　and　many　others　might　be　imagined。

As　we　have　seen；　self…suggestion　and　telepathy　explain　certain　cases　which　concern　events　already　in　existence；　but　still　latent　and　perceived　before　the　knowledge　of　them　can　reach　us　by　the　normal　process　of　the　senses　or　the　intelligence。　But；　even　by　extending　these　two　theories　to　their　uttermost　point　and　positively　abusing　their　accommodating　elasticity；　we　do　not　succeed　in　illumining　by　their　aid　more　than　a　rather　restricted　portion　of　the　vast　undiscovered　land。　We　must　therefore　look　for　something　else。

The　first　theory　which　suggests　itself　and　which　on　the　surface　seems　rather　attractive　is　that　of　spiritualism；　which　may　be　extended　until　it　is　scarcely　distinguishable　from　the　theosophical　theory　and　other　religious　suppositions。　It　assumes　the　revival　of　spirits；　the　existence　of　discarnate　or　other　superior　and　more　mysterious　entities　which　surround　us；　interest　themselves　in　our　fate；　guide　our　thoughts　and　our　actions　and；　above　all；　know　the　future。　It　is；　as　we　recognized　when　speaking　of　ghosts　and　hanted　houses；　a　very　acceptable　theory；　and　any　one　to　whom　it　appears　can　adopt　it　without　doing　violence　to　his　intelligence。　But　we　must　confess　that　it　seems　less　necessary　and　perhaps　even　less　clearly　proved　in　this　region　than　in　that。　It　starts　by　begging　the　question：　without　the　intervention　of　discarnate　beings；　the　spiritualists　say；　it　is　impossible　to　explain　the　majority　of　the　premonitory　phenomena；　therefore　we　must　admit　the　existence　of　these　discarnate　beings。　Let　us　grant　it　for　the　moment；　for　to　beg　the　question；　which　is　merely　an　indefensible　trick　of　the　superficial　logic　of　our　brain；　does　not　necessarily　condemn　a　theory　and　neither　takes　away　from　nor　adds　to　the　reality　of　things。　Besides；　as　we　shall　insist　later；　the　intervention　or　non…intervention　of　the　spirits　is　not　the　point　at　issue；　and　the　crux　of　the　mystery　does　not　lie　there。　What　most　interest　us　is　far　less　the　paths　or　intermediaries　by　which　prophetic　warnings　reach　us　than　the　actual　existence　of　the　future　in　the　present。　It　is　trueto　do　complete　justice　to　neospiritualismthat　its　position　offers　certain　advantages　from　the　point　of　view　of　the　almost　inconceivable　problem　of　the　preexistence　of　the　future。　It　can　evade　or　divert　some　of　the　consequences　of　that　problem。　The　spirits；　it　declares；　do　not　necessarily　see　the　future　as　a　whole；　as　a　total　past　or　present；　motionless　and　immovable；　but　they　know　infinitely　better　than　we　do　the　numberless　causes　that　determine　any　agent；　so　that；　finding　themselves　at　the　luminous　source　of　those　causes；　they　have　no　difficulty　in　foreseeing　their　effects。　They　are；　with　respect　to　the　incidents　still　in　process　of　formation；　in　the　position　of　an　astronomer　who　foretells；　within　a　second；　all　the　phases　of　an　eclipse　in　which　a　savage　sees　nothing　but　an　unprecedented　catastrophe　which　he　attributes　to　the　anger　of　his　idols　of　straw　or　clay。　It　is　indeed　possible　that　this　acquaintance　with　a　greater　number　of　causes　explains　certain　predictions；　but　there　are　plenty　of　others　which　presume　a　knowledge　of　so　many　causes；　causes　so　remote　and　so　profound；　that　this　knowledge　is　hardly　to　be　distinguished　from　a　knowledge　of　the　future　pure　and　simple。　In　any　case；　beyond　certain　limits；　the　preexistence　of　causes　seems　no　clearer　than　that　of　effects。　Nevertheless；　it　must　be　admitted　that　the　spiritualists　gain　a　slight　advantage　here。

They　believe　that　they　gain　another　when　they　say　or　might　say　that　it　is　still　possible　that　the　spirits　stimulate　us　to　realize　the　events　which　they　foretell　without　themselves　clearly　perceiving　them　in　the　future。　After　announcing；　for　instance；　that　on　a　certain　day　we　shall　go　to　a　certain　place　and　do　a　certain　thing；　they　urge　us　irresistibly　to　proceed　to　the　spot　named　and　there　to　perform　the　act　prophesied。　But　this　theory；　like　those　of　self…suggestion　and　telepathy；　would　explain　only　a　few　phenomena　and　would　leave　in　obscurity　all　those　cases；　infinitely　more　numerous　because　they　make　up　almost　the　whole　of　our　future；　in　which　either　chance　intervenes　or　some　event　in　no　way　dependent　upon　our　will　or　the　spirit's；　unless　indeed　we　suppose　that　the　latter　possesses　an　omniscience　and　an　omnipotence　which　take　us　back　to　the　original　mysteries　of　the　problem。

Besides；　in　the　gloomy　regions　of　precognition；　it　is　almost　always　a　matter　of　anticipating　a　misfortune　and　very　rarely；　if　ever；　of　meeting　with　a　pl