the unknown guest-第8章

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ell　where；　to　question　the　deities　or　the　dead。


CHAPTER　III。　THE　KNOWLEDGE　OF　THE　FUTURE

1

Premonition　or　precognition　leads　us　to　still　more　mysterious　regions；　where　stands；　half　merging　from　an　intolerable　darkness；　the　gravest　problem　that　can　thrill　mankind；　the　knowledge　of　the　future。　The　latest；　the　best　and　the　most　complete　study　devoted　to　it　is；　I　believe；　that　recently　published　by　M。　Ernest　Bozzano；　under　the　title　Des　Phenomenes　Premonitoires。　Availing　himself　of　excellent　earlier　work；　notably　that　of　Mrs。　Sidgwick　and　Myers＇1＇　and　adding　the　result　of　his　own　researches；　the　author　collects　some　thousand　cases　of　precognition；　of　which　he　discusses　one　hundred　and　sixty；　leaving　the　great　majority　of　the　others　on　one　side。　Not　because　they　are　negligible；　but　because　he　does　not　wish　to　exceed　too　flagrantly　the　normal　limits　of　a　monograph。

＇1＇　Proceedings；　Vols。　　V。　and　XI。


He　begins　by　carefully　eliminating　all　the　episodes　which；　though　apparently　premonitory；　may　be　explained　by　self…suggestion　（as　in　the　case；　for　instance；　where　some　one　smitten　with　a　disease　still　latent　seems　to　foresee　this　disease　and　the　death　which　will　be　its　conclusion）；　by　telepathy　（when　a　sensitive　is　aware　beforehand　of　the　arrival　of　a　person　or　a　letter）；　or　lastly　by　clairvoyance　（when　a　man　dreams　of　a　spot　where　he　will　find　something　which　he　has　mislaid；　or　an　uncommon　plant；　or　an　insect　sought　for　in　vain；　or　of　the　unknown　place　which　he　will　visit　at　some　later　date）。

In　all　these　cases；　we　have　not；　properly　speaking；　to　do　with　a　pure　future；　but　rather　with　a　present　that　is　not　yet　known。　Thus　reduced　and　stripped　of　all　foreign　influences　and　intrusions　the　number　of　instances　in　which　there　is　a　really　clear　and　incontestable　perception　of　a　fragment　of　the　future　remains　large　enough；　contrary　to　what　is　generally　believed；　to　make　it　impossible　for　us　to　speak　of　extraordinary　accidents　or　wonderful　coincidences。　There　must　be　a　limit　to　everything；　even　to　distrust；　even　to　the　most　extensive　incredulity；　otherwise　all　historical　research　and　a　good　deal　of　scientific　research　would　become　decidedly　impracticable。　And　this　remark　applies　as　much　to　the　nature　of　the　incidents　related　as　to　the　actual　authenticity　of　the　narratives。　We　can　contest　or　suspect　any　story　whatever；　any　written　proof；　any　evidence；　but　thenceforward　we　must　abandon　all　certainty　or　knowledge　that　is　not　acquired　by　means　of　mathematical　operations　or　laboratory　experiments；　that　is　to　say；　three…fourths　of　the　human　phenomena　which　interest　us　most。　Observe　that　the　records　collected　by　the　investigators　of　the　S。　P。　R。；　like　those　discussed　by　M。　Bozzano；　are　all　told　at　first　hand　and　that　those　stories　of　which　the　narrators　were　not　the　protagonists　or　the　direct　witnesses　have　been　ruthlessly　rejected。　Furthermore；　some　of　these　narratives　are　necessarily　of　the　nature　of　medical　observations；　as　for　the　others；　if　we　attentively　examine　the　character　of　those　who　have　related　them　and　the　circumstances　which　corroborate　them；　we　shall　agree　that　it　is　more　just　and　more　reasonable　to　believe　in　them　than　to　look　upon　every　man　who　has　an　extraordinary　experience　as　being　a　priori　a　liar；　the　victim　of　an　hallucination；　or　a　wag。

2

There　could　be　no　question　of　giving　here　even　a　brief　analysis　of　the　most　striking　cases。　It　would　require　a　hundred　pages　and　would　alter　the　whole　nature　of　this　essay；　which；　to　keep　within　its　proper　dimensions；　most　take　it　for　granted　that　most　of　the　materials　which　it　examines　are　familiar。　I　therefore　refer　the　reader　who　may　wish　to　form　an　opinion　for　himself　to　the　easily…accessible　sources　which　I　have　mentioned　above。　It　will　suffice；　to　give　an　accurate　idea　of　the　gravity　of　the　problem　to　any　one　who　has　not　time　or　opportunity　to　consult　the　original　documents　if　I　sum　up　in　a　few　words　some　of　these　pioneer　adventures；　selected　among　those　which　seem　least　open　to　dispute；　for　it　goes　without　saying　that　all　have　not　the　same　value；　otherwise　the　question　would　be　settled。　There　are　some　which；　while　exceedingly　striking　at　first　sight　and　offering　every　guarantee　that　could　be　desired　to　authenticity；　nevertheless　do　not　imply　a　real　knowledge　of　the　future　and　can　be　interpreted　in　another　manner。　I　give　one；　to　serve　as　an　instance；　it　is　reported　by　Dr。　Alphonse　Teste　in　his　Manuel　pratique　du　magnetisme　animal。

On　the　8th　of　May；　Dr。　Teste　magnetizes　Mme。　Hortensein　the　presence　of　her　husband。　She　is　no　sooner　asleep　than　she　announces　that　she　has　been　pregnant　for　a　fortnight；　that　she　will　not　go　her　full　time；　that　〃she　will　take　fright　at　something；〃　that　she　will　have　a　fall　and　that　the　result　will　be　a　miscarriage。　She　adds　that；　on　the　12th　of　May；　after　having　had　a　fright；　she　will　have　a　fainting…fit　which　will　last　for　eight　minutes；　and　she　then　describes；　hour　by　hour；　the　course　of　her　malady；　which　will　end　in　three　days'　loss　of　reason；　from　which　she　will　recover。

On　awaking；　she　retains　no　recollection　of　anything　that　has　passed；　it　is　kept　from　her；　and　Dr。　Teste　communicates　his　notes　to　Dr。　Amidee　Latour。　On　the　12th　of　May；　he　calls　on　M。　and　Mme。；　finds　them　at　table　and　puts　Mme。　to　sleep　again；　whereupon　she　repeats　word　for　word　what　she　told　him　four　days　before。　They　wake　her　up。　The　dangerous　hour　is　drawing　near。　They　take　every　imaginable　precaution　and　even　close　the　shutters。　Mme。；　made　uneasy　by　these　extraordinary　measures　which　she　is　quite　unable　to　understand；　asks　what　they　are　going　to　do　to　her。　Half…past　three　o'clock　strikes。　Mme。　rises　from　the　sofa　on　which　they　have　made　her　sit　and　wants　to　leave　the　room。　The　doctor　and　her　husband　try　to　prevent　her。

〃But　what　is　the　matter　with　you？〃　she　asks。　〃I　simply　must　go　out。〃

〃No；　madame；　you　shall　not：　I　speak　in　the　interest　of　your　health。〃

〃Well；　then；　doctor；〃　she　replies；　with　a　smile；　〃if　it　is　in　the　interest　of　my　health；　that　is　all　the　more　reason　why　you　should　let　me　go　out。〃

The　excuse　is　a　plausible　one　and　even　irresistible；　but　the　husband；　wishing　to　carry　the　struggle　against　destiny　to　the　last；　declares　that　he　will　accompany　his　wife。　The　doctor　remains　alone；　feeling　somewhat　anxious；　in　spite　of　the　rather　farcical　turn　which　the　incident　has　taken。　Suddenly；　a　piercing　shriek　is　heard　and　the　noise　of　a　body　falling。　He　runs　out　and　finds　Mme。　wild　with　fright　and　apparently　dying　in　her　husband's　arms。　At　the　moment　when；　leaving　him　for　an　instant；　she　opened　the　door　of　the　place　where　she　was　going；　a　rat；　the　first　seen　there　for　twenty　years；　rushed　at　her　and　gave　her　so　great　a　start　that　she　fell　flat　on　her　back。　And　all　the　rest　of　the　prediction　was　fulfilled　to　the　letter；　hour　by　hour　and　detail　by　detail。

3

To　make　it　quite　clear　in　what　spirit　I　am　undertaking　this　study　and　to　remove　at　the　beginning　any　suspicion　of　blind　or　systematic　credulity；　I　am　anxious；　before　going　any　further；　to　say　that　I　fully　realize　that　cases　of　this　kind　by　no　means　carry　conviction。　It　is　quite　possible　that　everything　happened　in　the　subconscious　imagination　of　the　subject　and　that　she　herself　created；　by　self…suggestion；　her　illness；　her　fright；　her　fall　and　her　miscarriage　and　adapted　herself　to　most　of　the　circumstances　which　she　had　foretold　in　her　secondary　state。　The　appearance　of　the　rat　at　the　fatal　moment　is　the　only　thing　that　would　suggest　a　precise　and　disquieting　vision　of　an　inevitable　future　event。　Unfortunately；　we　are　not　told　that　the　rat　was　perceived　by　other　witnesses　than　the　patient；　so　that　there　is　nothing　to　prove　that　it　also　was　not　imaginary。　I　have　therefore　quoted　this　inadequate　instance　only　because　it　represents　fairly　well　the　general　aspect　and　the　indecisive　value　of　many　similar　cases　and　enable　us　to　note　once　and　for　all　the　objections　which　can　be　raised　and　the　precautions　which　we　should　take　before　entering　these　suspicious　and　obscure　regions。

We　now　come　to　an　infinitely　more　significant　and　less　questionable　case　related　by　Dr。　Joseph　Maxwell；　the　learned　and　very　scrupulous　author　of　Les　Phenomenes　Psychiques；　a　work　which　has　been　translated　into　English　under　the　title　of　Metapsychical　Phenomena。　It　concerns　a　vision　which　was　described　to　him　eight　days　before　the　event　and　which　he　told　to　many　people　before　it　was　accomplished。　A　sensitive　perceived　in　a　crystal　the　following　scene：　a　large　steamer；　flying　a　flag　of　three　horizontal　bars；　black；　white　and　red；　and　bearing　the　name　Leutschland；　was　sailing　in　mid…ocean。　The　boat　was　suddenly　enveloped　in　smoke；　a　great　number　of　sailors；　passengers　and　men　in　uniform　rushed　to　the　upper　deck；　and　the　boat　went　down。

Eight　days　afterwards；　the　newspapers　announced　the　accident　to　the　Deutschland；　whose　boiler　had　burst；　obliging　the　steamboat　to　stand　to。

The　evidence　of　a　man　like　Dr。　Maxwell；　especially　when　we　have　to　do　with　a　so…to…speak　personal　incident；　possesses　an　importance　on　which　it　is　needless　to　insist。　We　have　here；　therefore；　several　days　beforehand；　the　very　clear　prevision　of　an　event　which；　moreover；　in　no　way　concerns　the　percipient：　a　curious　detail；　but　one　which　is　not　uncommon　in　these　cases。　The　mistake　in　reading　Leutschland　for　Deutschland；　which　would　have　been　quite　natural　in　real　life；　adds　a　note　of　probability　and　authenticity　to　the　phenomenon。　As　for　the　final　act；　the　foundering　of　the　vessel　in　the　place　of　a　simple　heaving　to；　we　must　see　in　this；　as　Dr。　J。　W。　Pickering　and　W。　A。　Sadgrove　suggest；　〃the　subconscious　dramatization　of　a　subliminal　inference　of　the　percipient。〃　Such　dramatization；　moreover；　are　instinctive　and　almost　general　in　this　class　of　visions。

If　this　were　an　isolated　case；　it　would　certainly　not　be　right　to　attach　decisive　importance　to　it；　〃but；〃　Dr。　Maxwell　observes；　〃the　same　sensitive　has　given　me　other　curious　instances；　and　these　cases；　compared　with　others　which　I　myself　have　observed　or　with　those　of　which　I　have　received　first…hand　accounts；　render　the　hypothesis　of　coincidence　very　improbable；　though　they　do　not　absolutely　exclude　it。〃＇1＇

＇1＇　Maxwell：　Metapsychical　Phenomena；　p。　202。


4

Another　and　perhaps　more　convincing　case；　more　strictly　investigated　and　established；　a　case　which　clearly　does　not　admit　of　explanation；　by　the　theory　of　coincidence；　worthy　of　all　respect　though　this　theory　be；　is　that　related　by　M。　Theodore　Flournoy；　science　professor　at　the　university　of　Geneva；　in　his　remarkable　work；　Esprits　et　Mediums。　Professor　Flournoy　is　known　to　be　one　of　the　most　learned　and　most　critical　exponents　of　the　new　science　of　metapsychics。　He　even　carries　his　fondness　for　natural　explanations　and　his　repugnance　to　admit　the　intervention　of　superhuman　powers　to　a　point　where　it　is　often　difficult　to　follow　him。　I　will　give　the　narrative　as　briefly　as　possible。　It　will　be　found　in　full　on　pp。　348　to　362　of　his　masterly　book。

In　August；　1883；　a　certain　Mme。　Buscarlet；　whom　he　knew　personally；　returned　to　Geneva　after　spending　three　years　with　the　Moratief　family　at　Kazan　as　governess　to　two　girls。　She　continued　to　correspond　with　the　family　and　also　with　a　Mme。　Nitchinof；　who　kept　a　school　at　Kazan　to　which　Mlles。　Morat